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PostPosted: May 31 19, 8:46 am 
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I don't really disagree with much of Edwards' assessment, except that Hudson really should be able to limit HR's at that kind of rate. The K/BB ratio is an issue, but they key to his success is that he doesn't allow HR's. He allowed the same number of HR's in April as he had for his entire professional career. A HR a month is about the right pace for Hudson, as ridiculous as it sounds. And he should be able to cut his BB's by a full BB per nine.

May doesn't represent an outlier month for him. It represents what should be a normal month for him. BB rate of 3.57. GB% of 65. HR percentage below .5 per 9. FIP of 3.49. The K's need to be better and haven't. The BB's should be better and he's showing progress there. The HR rates and GB rates will be better and have been.

We have to remember that he's a rookie. Our first look at him as a starter isn't going to define his career. His MiLB profile is still more important to us than anything we've seen at the majors. So, if he can just settle in now as what he is (which we saw in May) and avoid the extreme HR rates (what he isn't), he should be more than a #5 starter. I tend to think of a #5 as essentially replacement level or just above. That's about what a rookie Hudson is at his worst. A bad #3 or a good #4 is more where I would land a rookie Hudson as himself, and on this team with the staff as it is right now, I'll take that. If only Wacha and AW could be solid #4's. Honestly, that's my biggest frustration with this season. If only the pitching staff had been bad and not historically awful we would be just fine right now.


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PostPosted: May 31 19, 10:59 am 
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Allowing home runs is fine in this day and age, it's if you have runners on base when you allow them is what matters. That's why FIP is super flawed to me (and what WAR is based on). Bumgarner gives up HRs a lot but there's never very many on base when he does. That's the main point. I agree that it's critical to Hudson's success though.

You need like 500 innings worth of batters faced to determine HR rate stability. If there's one thing I've noticed with our recent string of pitchers who've found success in Springfield and Memphis, is that their walk rates always spike when reaching MLB. That's to be expected but it's always rather significant (haven't verified this with a lot of hard data, just recollection).

I look at SIERA for pitchers like Hudson. And he's doing very poorly there so far in MLB with 4.85. Puts him down in the bottom 10% of the league.


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PostPosted: May 31 19, 8:15 pm 
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PostPosted: June 1 19, 1:13 am 
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InvincibleCakeEater wrote:



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PostPosted: June 1 19, 2:51 am 
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Is Ankiel not working for FSMW this season? I guess I haven’t seen him.


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PostPosted: June 3 19, 8:31 am 
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reyes was bad yesterday
https://www.milb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs ... ame=579725


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PostPosted: June 3 19, 10:16 am 
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Quote:
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Cardinals are "among the teams that have kept tabs on" the Dallas Keuchel market.

Keuchel is no longer tied to draft pick compensation, as the 2019 MLB Draft will get underway on Monday night, so a range of different teams will now be jumping into the mix. He's a great for the Cardinals, whose combined rotation ERA of 4.35 ranks 16th among all 30 major league clubs. Keuchel, 31, registered a 3.74 ERA and 153/58 K/BB ratio over 204 2/3 innings (34 starts) with the Astros in 2018 before failing to find a contract to his liking over the winter and spring months.

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter
Jun 3, 2019, 11:56 AM ET


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PostPosted: June 3 19, 11:46 am 
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Jocephus wrote:
Quote:
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Cardinals are "among the teams that have kept tabs on" the Dallas Keuchel market.

Keuchel is no longer tied to draft pick compensation, as the 2019 MLB Draft will get underway on Monday night, so a range of different teams will now be jumping into the mix. He's a great for the Cardinals, whose combined rotation ERA of 4.35 ranks 16th among all 30 major league clubs. Keuchel, 31, registered a 3.74 ERA and 153/58 K/BB ratio over 204 2/3 innings (34 starts) with the Astros in 2018 before failing to find a contract to his liking over the winter and spring months.

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter
Jun 3, 2019, 11:56 AM ET


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PostPosted: June 3 19, 1:51 pm 
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With the way Wacha has flamed out and the lack of impressiveness from Reyes so far; the Cardinals should definitely be in on Keuchel.


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PostPosted: June 3 19, 2:08 pm 
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Magneto2.0 wrote:
Not signing Dallas Keuchel at this point is pretty much irresponsible

This is as true today as it was May 11. If the Cardinals don't pick up Keuchel, unless he gets some ludicrous contract, I'll be irate.

If it's a 1 year deal and the Cardinals don't sign him, I'll lose my [expletive].


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