Re: 2019 Pitching staff thread
Posted: May 31 19, 8:46 am
I don't really disagree with much of Edwards' assessment, except that Hudson really should be able to limit HR's at that kind of rate. The K/BB ratio is an issue, but they key to his success is that he doesn't allow HR's. He allowed the same number of HR's in April as he had for his entire professional career. A HR a month is about the right pace for Hudson, as ridiculous as it sounds. And he should be able to cut his BB's by a full BB per nine.
May doesn't represent an outlier month for him. It represents what should be a normal month for him. BB rate of 3.57. GB% of 65. HR percentage below .5 per 9. FIP of 3.49. The K's need to be better and haven't. The BB's should be better and he's showing progress there. The HR rates and GB rates will be better and have been.
We have to remember that he's a rookie. Our first look at him as a starter isn't going to define his career. His MiLB profile is still more important to us than anything we've seen at the majors. So, if he can just settle in now as what he is (which we saw in May) and avoid the extreme HR rates (what he isn't), he should be more than a #5 starter. I tend to think of a #5 as essentially replacement level or just above. That's about what a rookie Hudson is at his worst. A bad #3 or a good #4 is more where I would land a rookie Hudson as himself, and on this team with the staff as it is right now, I'll take that. If only Wacha and AW could be solid #4's. Honestly, that's my biggest frustration with this season. If only the pitching staff had been bad and not historically awful we would be just fine right now.
May doesn't represent an outlier month for him. It represents what should be a normal month for him. BB rate of 3.57. GB% of 65. HR percentage below .5 per 9. FIP of 3.49. The K's need to be better and haven't. The BB's should be better and he's showing progress there. The HR rates and GB rates will be better and have been.
We have to remember that he's a rookie. Our first look at him as a starter isn't going to define his career. His MiLB profile is still more important to us than anything we've seen at the majors. So, if he can just settle in now as what he is (which we saw in May) and avoid the extreme HR rates (what he isn't), he should be more than a #5 starter. I tend to think of a #5 as essentially replacement level or just above. That's about what a rookie Hudson is at his worst. A bad #3 or a good #4 is more where I would land a rookie Hudson as himself, and on this team with the staff as it is right now, I'll take that. If only Wacha and AW could be solid #4's. Honestly, that's my biggest frustration with this season. If only the pitching staff had been bad and not historically awful we would be just fine right now.