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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:52 am 
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Three guys now from the top 14 of BA's Top 100 Prospects in 2011: Hosmer (#8), Myers (#10), Machado (#14). Plus Hedges who was top-30 a few years later and Erlin who the Prospectus guys loved as a prospect, and Renfroe who was #44 from BA in 2017.


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:54 am 
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wouldve loved that deal for the cardinals, especially with the opt-out after 5


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:54 am 
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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:55 am 
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Padres will pay approximately $75 million for Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Manny Machado in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

That has mediocre written all over it.


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:57 am 
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just can't quit you.
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Wonder if Harper will take 10 years $310 with opt out after 5....


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 11:58 am 
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go birds wrote:
wouldve loved that deal for the cardinals, especially with the opt-out after 5


There is 0.00001% chance Machado will execute that opt-out, unless the deal is insanely front-loaded. Especially since there will be a new CBA between now and then.


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 12:04 pm 
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darjeeling sipping elite
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Popeye_Card wrote:
go birds wrote:
wouldve loved that deal for the cardinals, especially with the opt-out after 5


There is 0.00001% chance Machado will execute that opt-out, unless the deal is insanely front-loaded. Especially since there will be a new CBA between now and then.


Your number is way too low. Depends on what the back half looks like (as you suggested) and salary growth and obviously his performance. But he’ll only be 31...


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 12:08 pm 
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lukethedrifter wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:
go birds wrote:
wouldve loved that deal for the cardinals, especially with the opt-out after 5


There is 0.00001% chance Machado will execute that opt-out, unless the deal is insanely front-loaded. Especially since there will be a new CBA between now and then.


Your number is way too low. Depends on what the back half looks like (as you suggested) and salary growth and obviously his performance. But he’ll only be 31...


The lure of his age 26-30 production at a prime defensive position is why you would commit a $30MM AAV to him. At age 31 and facing a likely shift to 1B, he's either going to have to become a better hitter, or he isn't going to be getting any >$30MM AAV for 5+ offers.

I think I might actually be high on that probability.


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 12:14 pm 
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I love it. [expletive] the Dodgers.


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PostPosted: February 19 19, 12:31 pm 
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darjeeling sipping elite
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Popeye_Card wrote:
lukethedrifter wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:
go birds wrote:
wouldve loved that deal for the cardinals, especially with the opt-out after 5


There is 0.00001% chance Machado will execute that opt-out, unless the deal is insanely front-loaded. Especially since there will be a new CBA between now and then.


Your number is way too low. Depends on what the back half looks like (as you suggested) and salary growth and obviously his performance. But he’ll only be 31...


The lure of his age 26-30 production at a prime defensive position is why you would commit a $30MM AAV to him. At age 31 and facing a likely shift to 1B, he's either going to have to become a better hitter, or he isn't going to be getting any >$30MM AAV for 5+ offers.

I think I might actually be high on that probability.


I agree generally with your premise. But no. Too low. 1.8% is the actual number.


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