Mikolas extended

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Fat Strat
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Fat Strat »

Many of the comps above are missing one vital area: production. Mikolas produced a WAR of 4.3 last year. That's very significant. And it begs the question: why? Why was Mikolas productive when these other guys with low BB totals weren't? Take Leake as a comp. He might be a match to Mikolas from a K or BB perspective but it has consistently taken him 2 years on average to squeak out the kind of production Mikolas showed. About the same or even higher with Ivan Nova or Josh Tomlin. The answer comes with guys like Keuchel and Gonzales: HR rates. Those two guys both have higher K and BB rates than Mikolas (on average). But, both keep the ball in the park at an elite level. Keuchel had stretches where he averaged about 1 HR every other game or so. Marco's HR rate and his BB/K ratio seem to be in the right camp with Mikolas; he'll probably K more and BB more, but the production per ip is there based on last year.

So, what's the difference between guys like Mikolas and Marco vs. someone like Leake or Tomlin? Command. Elite control is not enough. There is a significant difference between not walking guys and not walking guys while also putting the ball where you want it in the zone. The productive names that we've thrown out -- AW, Mikolas, Marco, Keuchel, and Lee (the uber example) allowed some runners but they did not let those runners get home. Teams had to work very hard to get anything across the board, stringing together multiple hits in a row. The less productive players mentioned might not walk many batters, but they also weren't limiting hard contact or HR's at the same rate as the elite ones. The numbers can vary -- K more and you can BB more and remain very productive; K less and you have to limit HR's more -- but the formula is essentially the same for all those guys. Mikolas fits with the higher end performers on there because of his impeccable command.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Doug Fister is the best comparison I've seen.

Brandon McCarthy too.

McCarthy outputted a similar year in 2011 to Miles's last year. And then fell off the planet. Fister had a little staying power. Maybe Mo thinks somewhere in between is a good enough cushion.

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Swirls
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Swirls »

You keep saying you can't use data that old though for it to he reliable. McCarthy's last few years haven't sniffed the extreme control he showed early in his career - but his velocity is comparable to Mikolas'.

Fister has great walk rate still, but he throws like 5-6 mph slower on average.

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Jocephus
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Jocephus »

Miles Mikolas Defies Comparison
by Ben Clemens
April 3, 2019
Here’s something that won’t surprise you. The number one starter in all of baseball last year, when it came to getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, was Patrick Corbin. Of course it was Patrick Corbin! Dude threw 95% sliders last year, and that’s only a little bit of an exaggeration (it was a little over 41%, if you’re intent on checking my math). The second guy on the list, a minuscule 0.1% of out-of-zone swing rate behind Corbin, was Jacob deGrom. I mean … yeah. DeGrom had a 1.7 ERA last year and struck out 32% of the batters he faced. People swung at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone.

At number three, though, the list takes an unexpected turn. The third-highest chase rate in baseball last year belonged to Miles Mikolas, and it’s hard to think of a pitcher who resembles Corbin and deGrom less than Mikolas does. While the aforementioned duo both had top-10 strikeout rates among qualified starters, Mikolas was in the bottom ten. Corbin and deGrom were exemplars of the new three-true-outcome direction baseball has taken (mostly one true outcome, in their case), while Mikolas had essentially the lowest three true outcome rate in all of baseball. What does it mean to generate a ton of swings outside the strike zone but few strikeouts?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miles-mikol ... omparison/

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