6 WAR from Kolten Wong? Really? GDT's for the win! But, I actually agree with the sentiment -- Wong seems positioned for a career year, and his ridiculous start is only going to make that easier to accomplish. Amoco very reasonably explains that he is hoping Wong can return to his MiLB numbers of a .350 OBP and a 120 wRC+. The year he cites is '13, Wong's full season at AAA Memphis as a 22 year old in his second full season in the minors. Wong hit .303/.369/.466. He reached the majors that season, getting a forgettable cup of coffee. He became a regular in '14 and the presumptive long-time plan at 2b in '15, though he hasn't always held the job, but never came close to showing the eye or the line drive stroke that he displayed in his brief stint in the minors. With over 2000 MLB plate appearances under his belt and age 28 now, Wong is well into the "you know what you get" territory. His career line is .257/.327/.386 with a 95 wRC+ and occasionally brilliant defense.Big Amoco Sign wrote:This is Wong's year. Hoping for 6+ WAR from him.
Still, Wong has never been able to shake that belief from fans and commentators that there is more in him. My question today is what does that more look like?
First, lets examine this through the lens of Amoco's statement. Can a 2b'man with good to great defense get to 6 WAR with only a 120 wRC+? I looked at Fangraph's 2b leaderboard by single seasons from 2014-2018 (5 seasons) and sorted by wRC+. If I limit my search to just those with a wRC+ between 120-125, I get 14 seasons from guys like Scooter Genett, Ben Zobrist, Jed Lowrie, Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Logan Forsythe and others. I would take a closer look at their individual seasons, but there really isn't much point: no 2b with a 120 wRC+ managed to hit 6 WAR. The closest was future Hall of Famer (is that controversial?) Ian Kinsler's 5.4 WAR.
So, if 6 WAR from Ian Kinsler at 120'ish wRC+ isn't possible, then Wong can never hope to reach that value. Except... there's a major flaw in those results. The highest DEF WAR value from any player on that leaderboard was 11.1 by Dustin Pedroia in 2016. Last year, Wong produced a 15.1 DEF value, which would rank as the 2nd best DEF value from a qualifying 2b'man since 2015 if Wong had stayed healthy enough to qualify. A career year from Wong would not only include a bump in offense, but at the very least a continuation of his Gold Glove caliber defense, right? Sure!
Sorting the same leaderboard by DEF instead of wRC+ only makes the picture more muddy. Outside of Kinsler and Pedroia, just two other players have managed a DEF over 10 and a wRC+ over 100 -- Jason Kipnis and Caser Hernandez -- 4.7 and 3.8 WAR respectively. 4 players have over 10 DEF by under 100 wRC+ (which is also where Wong would fall last season if he counted).
2b is sort of feast of famine. Great defense? Mediocre offense. Great offense? Mediocre defense. And the two players that have both are close to HOF standards. If I expand my search to include 3b'man, I get a little closer but still not there. There was no 3b'man in this time frame who reached 6 WAR with a 120 wRC+. Several were at 5.5 or above, and all of them had good DEF values and wRC+'s outside our range -- nearly 130. All of them are names that don't fit with Kolten Wong -- Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson.
That leaves us where we started -- with a player in Wong who we know can pick it at 2b with the best of them and we still believe has more offense to give in him. A comp I mentioned in passing 2x above stands out to me now: Jason Kipnis. Kipnis, not nearly as heralded as Kinsler and Pedroia, still had a stretch from age 26-29 (Wong is 28) where he routinely produced WAR values in the 3.5-5 range. His slash line during that time? A cumulative .276/.349/.429/.778 with a meh'ish 111 OPS+ (which is scaled similarly to wRC+).
Couldn't, in a career year, Kolten Wong's .257/.327/.386... become something like Jason Kipnis' - .276/.349/.429?
Yes, I do believe it could. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all. In fact, it really fits well with Wong's offensive profile in a typical career year, across the board bump. One season from Kipnis stands out -- 2016. Here, Kipnis produced .275/.343/.469 with a 114 wRC+ and a 10.0 DEF value (built from a 8.2 UZR). His WAR value? Not 6+. But, at 4.7... darn good!
There you have it folks. Kolten Wong's career year is Jason Kipnis circa 2016. Maybe Wong doesn't hit that slug%, but maybe he puts together more defense and contact ability -- a .280-.290 BA is not a stretch for Wong. But, here is the real key. That season, Kipnis had 688 PA's. Wong hasn't had over 411 since 2015. If Wong has any chance of reaching Kipnis' level, I think it all starts with health. If Wong can stay on the field, continue to produce at an elite level defensively, AND find a little extra in his bat, he could break 4 WAR. If...