Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Fat Strat wrote:This only sort of ties in with Matt Carpenter, but do you remember all that angst about Shildt's apparent love affair with Tommy Edman? Even putting him in the OF?

Edman is at .285/.321/.440 and while his BB rate is still a putrid 4.6% overall, it has climbed to 5.5% in the 2nd half -- the majority of his time as a quasi-starter. It's also at 5% as a LHB vs RHP for the year, which includes the time before the break where he basically didn't walk at all. (All of his MiLB BB totals are just fine - ranging between 6.7-15.5% in his longer stops). None of that is great, but it's improvement, which is noteworthy. Defensively, this is not predictive, but real-time results are very positive. Edman is +3 at 3b, +w at 2b, and 0 in the OF in DRS.

Anyway, gotta give Shildt some real credit. 1.2 WAR in 218 PA's for Edman. I'll take that everyday from a call-up INF/OF dirty-uniform switch hitter. Bo Hart had 1.1 WAR in 321 PA's in '03. Joe McEwing had 1.7 WAR as a do-it-all'er in '99 with 572 PA's (geez... that's a lot more Joe McEwing PA's than I remember that year).

Edman is not a starter, but I don't really have any objection to Shildt playing him wherever and whenever he wants while it lasts.
Very cool Fat! Those numbers for Super Joe McEwing don't surprise from what I remember. Where does Stubby Clapp fall in that cup-of-coffee pantheon? I remember him as a player like Hart and McEwing but maybe it was just the name.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

cardsfantx wrote:I never had an issue playing Edman in the IF...it was the OF that didn't make sense when you have Lane Thomas on the roster who's done nothing but tear the cover off the ball when given an AB, and is....well an actual outfielder
+

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

If it's between Edman and Thomas to get reps and consistent playing time during the midst of OF/Carpenter injuries, the org is going to go with the versatile Edman. Edman has switch hitting factor, speed factor (using the Speed score stat on Fangraphs during their minor league tenure), and in the minor leagues Edman was a career .769 OPS vs Thomas's .750 OPS so even a slight nod there and they're both the same age. Thomas being limited to the OF hurts him long term here. Edman has that Stanford factor too, which I think carries some weight with this club, though I have no proof.

So when it comes to filling out the lineups, they probably want Edman getting the bulk of the work, even if it means sacrificing defense (if you can even call it sacrificing, it might be negligible given Edman holding his own there in the ~10 attempts he's had on a play in RF. He has +1 OAA already according to Statcast).

Thomas having the slightly lower minor league OPS, limited to OF, no switch hitting ability, lesser speed factor, lesser contact factor-- you got to give the "development reps" to Edman.

While I think Thomas is a 4th-5th OF type, I think he does have a legit case to crack the 25-man over Jose Martinez at this point--who may finally be moved this offseason.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Jocephus »

more fwiw
Why Matt Carpenter’s Production Is Misleading (and Complicated)
by Justin Choi
April 23, 2021
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-matt-ca ... mplicated/
There are two hitters I would like to introduce. The first, Player A, has been described in terms of the classic trio of statistics: average, on-base percentage, and slugging. The second, Player B, has been described in terms of modern metrics like Exit Velocity and Barrel rate. Take a look at their numbers and try to see who’s better:

Player A: .081/.205/.162

Player B: 95.4 mph Exit Velocity, 63.6% Hard-Hit rate, 27.3% Barrel rate

Not much of a competition, right? Without additional context, you probably chose Player B in a heartbeat. Player A’s appalling triple-slash makes him a DFA candidate. Player B, on the other hand, looks like a hitting genius! Those numbers and rates would place him well above the 95th percentile of all major leaguers. The twist, of course, is that these two hitters are in fact the same person: Matt Carpenter, veteran infielder for the St. Louis Cardinals.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by GeddyWrox »

Thank GOD this is a bump and not a new thread. I had a very brief panic attack when I saw the thread title. LOL

Also, that's a pretty good article. Thanks for posting.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Fat Strat »

JL's article over at VEB is better and more complete than the Fangraphs one. Together, you've pretty much got everything you need to know about Carpenter covered.

Link: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2021/4/23/ ... -cardinals

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by heyzeus »

Fat Strat wrote:
April 23 21, 8:47 am
JL's article over at VEB is better and more complete than the Fangraphs one. Together, you've pretty much got everything you need to know about Carpenter covered.

Link: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2021/4/23/ ... -cardinals
Holy crap this is some hard core stat nerd stuff. So, so good.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by G. Keenan »

So, basically, Carpenter hits the ball hard enough to rank high enough on spreadsheets to look respectable on paper in a few stat categories du jour, but not hard enough for those balls to not become outs in the 3D world.

Going on 2+ years of this, with the caveat that 2020 was a short, weird season. The Cards bet big on his bat with that extension and it's been a complete flop. It happens. We'd become a different team overnight if he could turn it around, but to look at him day in and day out, does he look like a player who's about to break out? I know he's always been a chill persona so what he's trying might not register to the casual eye, but if the big leagues are all about making adjustments when what you were doing before isn't working anymore, he has not been able to adjust in quite a long time now.

I think he's kaput.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Jocephus »

G. Keenan wrote:
April 23 21, 10:27 am
So, basically, Carpenter hits the ball hard enough to rank high enough on spreadsheets to look respectable on paper in a few stat categories du jour, but not hard enough for those balls to not become outs in the 3D world.

Going on 2+ years of this, with the caveat that 2020 was a short, weird season. The Cards bet big on his bat with that extension and it's been a complete flop. It happens. We'd become a different team overnight if he could turn it around, but to look at him day in and day out, does he look like a player who's about to break out? I know he's always been a chill persona so what he's trying might not register to the casual eye, but if the big leagues are all about making adjustments when what you were doing before isn't working anymore, he has not been able to adjust in quite a long time now.

I think he's kaput.
you know stl front office will use the advanced stats as justification to keep him on the roster, even if they also know the caveats of the advanced data. it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out this year. at the very least, can anticipate frustration....which is so much fun to look forward to.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by haltz »

I wonder if his swing plane can be tinkered with a bit so he squares it up a bit more. What else contributes to an exit velocity and launch angle not generating distance? Park and weather? I wonder what those buckets look like in August vs April.

Awesome article by JL. Making outs in the deepest part of ballparks is basically the only way you can do this unless you're smoking line drives right at defenders.

Interesting that he should be pulling the ball more. I've always liked players who hit the ball hard to the pull side. Oppo is overrated.

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