Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:I love Carpenter and never wanted him elsewhere but why not just play out his contract and pick up the option and reevaluate then?
Respect.
Good enough for me.

cardsfantx
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:I love Carpenter and never wanted him elsewhere but why not just play out his contract and pick up the option and reevaluate then?
exactly

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Fat Strat »

cardsfantx wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:I love Carpenter and never wanted him elsewhere but why not just play out his contract and pick up the option and reevaluate then?
exactly
Probably because the Cards could sign Carpenter right now at a pretty heavily discounted rate. Josh Donaldson basically didn't play in 2018 and he got $23M from the Braves. When we snagged Holland (a reliever) on a one-year deal on Opening Day last year, he got $14M. Carpenter is going to make about half way between those two per year for one more year guaranteed than those two, and that while coming off a 5 WAR season. He hasn't been under 3 WAR since his rookie season. His skill set is such that it's not likely to diminish quickly -- even old guys walk. Carpenter, at 3 WAR, is still worth $23-$27M per season, even factoring in some across the board salary decline in MLB and his age issue.

Also, I think there is a an aspect of reward -- this is a small component of this -- for Carpenter who has produced over $220M worth of value for the Cards while getting paid less than a quarter of that. The Cardinals generally try to take care of their guys, and Carpenter has epitomized the Cardinals as much or more than any other player of this era -- the Wainwright/Molina decline phase.

Lastly, there is a great deal of unrecognized benefit to having these players around historically and letting them be "Cardinals for life". The Cards make excellent use of their historic players. Carpenter is a lock for the Cardinals Hall of Fame. He'll be back every Opening Day. He's also smart and will probably end up as a coach or assistant in the Cardinals organization. Or on TV. Carpenter will make the Cardinals boatloads of money in fan sentiment over the next 20 years beyond his playing days. The Cards are basically signing Carpenter up for that right now.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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I feel like we won't really know the value of this deal until Pinacle comes out of seclusion with his unique review of the terms.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

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Image
According to The Athletic colleague Mark Saxon, our Cardinals reporter, Carpenter will receive $39 million over the next two years (2020, 2021). Included in the pact is a vesting option for 2022 that would pay Carpenter $18.5 million if he accrues a minimum 1,000 plate appearances over 2020 and ’21.

That’s a reachable goal considering Carpenter’s annual average of 659 plate appearances from 2013 through 2018. But should Carpenter’s performance crater, the Cardinals have a protection in the form of a $2 million buyout following the ‘21 season.

If this deal reaches full term and takes Carpenter through 2022, it translates to $57.5 million over three seasons. If you want to add the 2019 salary to the total tab, then it’s a four-year deal averaging $19 million per season.

Enough with counting dollars.

Does this make sense?

Yes, I believe it’s a sound investment.

Carpenter is 33. He’ll be 34 by the time the Cardinals head to spring training in 2020. The contract extension also covers his age-35 season. And Carpenter will be 36 if he’s still a Cardinal in 2022.

Whoa. Doesn’t that make Carpenter a fossil by today’s standards? Aren’t members of baseball front offices having anxiety attacks over the notion of paying substantial money to a player over 30?

Sure. But Carpenter’s elite on-base skill lowers the risk. His PECOTA projections are favorable. Via our friends at Baseball Prospectus, here’s the year-by-year outlook on Carpenter’s offensive performance beyond this season:

In 2020: .351 OBP, .430 slugging percentage, 24 percent above league average offensively in Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) and a 3.5 Wins Above Replacement Player (or “WARP,” which is BP’s version of WAR).

In 2021: .348 OBP, .432 slugging, 22 percent above league average offensively (DRC+), and 3.3 WARP.

In 2022: .346 OBP, .417 slugging, 18 percent above league average offensively (DRC+) and 2.8 WARP.

If Carpenter comes close to reaching those numbers, the Cardinals will have no regrets. He has a decent chance to maintain his standards without significant deterioration. And the designated hitter will be coming to the National League at some point.

Carpenter rates among the most productive players of his time. Since 2013, when Carpenter first became a full-time starter, here’s where he stands among MLB hitters with at least 3,000 plate appearances over that time:

His .378 OBP ranks eighth.
His .471 slugging is 24th.
An .849 OPS that’s 18th.
An adjusted OPS (131 OPS+) that’s tied for 16th.
Carpenter is first in doubles (245), second in runs (616), fifth in walks (547), 38th in homers (128) and 39th in RBIs (442).
Only Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo and Jose Altuve have reached base more often than Carpenter since ‘13.
Only Trout, Nolan Arenado, Goldschmidt and Rizzo have more extra-base hits than Carpenter’s 393.
Using the Baseball-Reference version of WAR, Carpenter ranks 19th overall over the last six-plus seasons with 25 bWAR. He’s ninth with 26.8 offensive bWAR (26.8).

And among current Cardinals, Carpenter is a pillar of the team’s leadership foundation, along with teammates Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

This was an emotional day for Carpenter, a fifth-year infielder from TCU selected by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 June MLB draft — with the 399th pick overall.

Carpenter’s loyalty to the Cardinals goes back to that day when the franchise provided an opportunity to start a professional baseball career after the 29 other MLB teams passed him by.

“To be able to put this uniform on, one I treasure, is special,” Carpenter said during the Wednesday afternoon news conference to announce the extension. “To potentially be here for my entire career is something that I don’t take for granted. Every day it’s something I try to live up to. I’m really at a loss for words.”

Will this lead to a logjam?

Maybe so.

The Cardinals have multiple third-base prospects that seem like the real deal. There’s power-hitting teen Nolan Gorman, 18, who had two doubles, a triple, two homers and 10 RBIs in his first seven games for Class A Peoria this season. He’s listed as the Cards’ No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline. The No. 3 prospect is Elehuris (“Eli”) Montero, the MVP of the Class A Midwest League last season at the age of 19. And Malcom Nunez, 18, turned heads in the Dominican Summer League with 13 homers, 59 RBIs and a preposterous slash line of .415/.497/.774 in only 44 games.

“We’ll have to cross that bridge — in terms of where people play and when — when they’re ready (for the majors),” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said.

Mozeliak wanted to make another point: The front office didn’t want to “hide behind organizational depth” as an excuse to decline Carpenter’s 2020 option and let him walk as a free agent after the season.

Carpenter can be deployed at other positions (first base, second base) on an as-needed basis should an injury strike Goldschmidt or second baseman Kolten Wong.

Gorman was likely destined to be moved to a corner-outfield spot at some point, anyway. Montero could also end up in the corner outfield, or perhaps as a combo player who can start games at corner outfield, third base and first base. But Gorman, Montero and Nunez aren’t close to reaching St. Louis. And it’s always good to have a surplus.

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by wart57 »

CardsofSTL wrote:Image
According to The Athletic colleague Mark Saxon, our Cardinals reporter, Carpenter will receive $39 million over the next two years (2020, 2021). Included in the pact is a vesting option for 2022 that would pay Carpenter $18.5 million if he accrues a minimum 1,000 plate appearances over 2020 and ’21.

That’s a reachable goal considering Carpenter’s annual average of 659 plate appearances from 2013 through 2018. But should Carpenter’s performance crater, the Cardinals have a protection in the form of a $2 million buyout following the ‘21 season.

If this deal reaches full term and takes Carpenter through 2022, it translates to $57.5 million over three seasons. If you want to add the 2019 salary to the total tab, then it’s a four-year deal averaging $19 million per season.

Enough with counting dollars.

Does this make sense?

Yes, I believe it’s a sound investment.

Carpenter is 33. He’ll be 34 by the time the Cardinals head to spring training in 2020. The contract extension also covers his age-35 season. And Carpenter will be 36 if he’s still a Cardinal in 2022.

Whoa. Doesn’t that make Carpenter a fossil by today’s standards? Aren’t members of baseball front offices having anxiety attacks over the notion of paying substantial money to a player over 30?

Sure. But Carpenter’s elite on-base skill lowers the risk. His PECOTA projections are favorable. Via our friends at Baseball Prospectus, here’s the year-by-year outlook on Carpenter’s offensive performance beyond this season:

In 2020: .351 OBP, .430 slugging percentage, 24 percent above league average offensively in Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) and a 3.5 Wins Above Replacement Player (or “WARP,” which is BP’s version of WAR).

In 2021: .348 OBP, .432 slugging, 22 percent above league average offensively (DRC+), and 3.3 WARP.

In 2022: .346 OBP, .417 slugging, 18 percent above league average offensively (DRC+) and 2.8 WARP.

If Carpenter comes close to reaching those numbers, the Cardinals will have no regrets. He has a decent chance to maintain his standards without significant deterioration. And the designated hitter will be coming to the National League at some point.

Carpenter rates among the most productive players of his time. Since 2013, when Carpenter first became a full-time starter, here’s where he stands among MLB hitters with at least 3,000 plate appearances over that time:

His .378 OBP ranks eighth.
His .471 slugging is 24th.
An .849 OPS that’s 18th.
An adjusted OPS (131 OPS+) that’s tied for 16th.
Carpenter is first in doubles (245), second in runs (616), fifth in walks (547), 38th in homers (128) and 39th in RBIs (442).
Only Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo and Jose Altuve have reached base more often than Carpenter since ‘13.
Only Trout, Nolan Arenado, Goldschmidt and Rizzo have more extra-base hits than Carpenter’s 393.
Using the Baseball-Reference version of WAR, Carpenter ranks 19th overall over the last six-plus seasons with 25 bWAR. He’s ninth with 26.8 offensive bWAR (26.8).

And among current Cardinals, Carpenter is a pillar of the team’s leadership foundation, along with teammates Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

This was an emotional day for Carpenter, a fifth-year infielder from TCU selected by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 June MLB draft — with the 399th pick overall.

Carpenter’s loyalty to the Cardinals goes back to that day when the franchise provided an opportunity to start a professional baseball career after the 29 other MLB teams passed him by.

“To be able to put this uniform on, one I treasure, is special,” Carpenter said during the Wednesday afternoon news conference to announce the extension. “To potentially be here for my entire career is something that I don’t take for granted. Every day it’s something I try to live up to. I’m really at a loss for words.”

Will this lead to a logjam?

Maybe so.

The Cardinals have multiple third-base prospects that seem like the real deal. There’s power-hitting teen Nolan Gorman, 18, who had two doubles, a triple, two homers and 10 RBIs in his first seven games for Class A Peoria this season. He’s listed as the Cards’ No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline. The No. 3 prospect is Elehuris (“Eli”) Montero, the MVP of the Class A Midwest League last season at the age of 19. And Malcom Nunez, 18, turned heads in the Dominican Summer League with 13 homers, 59 RBIs and a preposterous slash line of .415/.497/.774 in only 44 games.

“We’ll have to cross that bridge — in terms of where people play and when — when they’re ready (for the majors),” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said.

Mozeliak wanted to make another point: The front office didn’t want to “hide behind organizational depth” as an excuse to decline Carpenter’s 2020 option and let him walk as a free agent after the season.

Carpenter can be deployed at other positions (first base, second base) on an as-needed basis should an injury strike Goldschmidt or second baseman Kolten Wong.

Gorman was likely destined to be moved to a corner-outfield spot at some point, anyway. Montero could also end up in the corner outfield, or perhaps as a combo player who can start games at corner outfield, third base and first base. But Gorman, Montero and Nunez aren’t close to reaching St. Louis. And it’s always good to have a surplus.
Too many words.

Let's see what Chuck Norris thinks of this deal.

Image


Chuck approves. Case closed.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Poll: Which Carpenter mattered more to this organization?

I think Matt and Chris are close in Cardinal WAR. (Can’t look up at the moment)

When it’s all said and done: Matt has the slight edge. Which one earns “Carp” nickname?

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Socnorb11 »

Chris Carpenter's post-season success gives him the edge, in my opinion

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Didn’t Carpenter crush Kershaw after an epic long AB in the postseason though?

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Re: Matt Carpenter, Cards reach 2-year extension

Post by ThatGuy »

This far surpasses the Kershaw AB (as awesome as that was):

A look back at Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, and Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS

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