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PostPosted: May 8 19, 2:43 pm 
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All Hail the New GDT Master
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PostPosted: May 8 19, 2:43 pm 
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PostPosted: May 8 19, 2:44 pm 
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PostPosted: May 8 19, 2:44 pm 
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PostPosted: May 8 19, 2:49 pm 
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It has, at times, become a point of friendly contention in the clubhouse between St. Louis Cardinals pitchers and hitters. Is the ball flying more freely at Busch Stadium this season after 13 years as one of the most reliably pitcher-friendly venues in baseball?

Construction crews have been erecting two massive new buildings across the street from the stadium, and the theory — hatched in the minds of the Cardinals’ pitchers, at least — is that the buildings are blocking the wind that would typically blow off the nearby Mississippi River or in from the north.

It first popped up in April, when early spring winds were swirling and baseballs seemed to be flying over the fences at a rate that, to some, was a little suspicious. Veteran Adam Wainwright, who has been pitching here since the place opened in 2006, mentioned the pitchers’ theory in passing one day to third baseman Matt Carpenter.

“After that, every time somebody hit one out, Carp would come in and go, ‘This place has changed. It’s that building out there,’” Wainwright said.

Well, is it?

“It could,” Wainwright said. “It seems like any time you block wind, you’re going to have a chance to have the ball carry more. We’ll see. We won’t know until we know.”

The data is too skimpy to build much of a consensus at this point. According to ESPN.com’s Park Factors data, Busch Stadium is playing appreciably more hitter-friendly than it has in recent seasons. It’s more conducive to scoring, in general, than it has been at any time since 2014. Home runs have been easier to hit than in any season since 2016. Park Factors compares the rate of a team’s stats at home versus the rate of its stats on the road.

Busch Stadium so far has been 1 percent less friendly to scoring runs and 13 percent less friendly to hitting home runs compared to the rest of baseball. In 2018, the stadium suppressed scoring about 8 percent and suppressed home runs about 15 percent relative to the average major-league stadium.

Take the whole thing with a grain of salt, of course. Tuesday night was just the Cardinals’ 18th home game. It is, at the least, a fun topic to debate, especially between groups of people who work for the same team but are rooting for different types of conditions to prevail.


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PostPosted: May 8 19, 3:15 pm 
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I will be at this game and the Friday night game.

I hope we get outta this rut we're in.


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PostPosted: May 8 19, 5:42 pm 
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Mayor of GRB
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GeddyWrox wrote:
I will be at this game and the Friday night game.

I hope we get outta this rut we're in.


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Where do they go from here to a better state than this?


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PostPosted: May 9 19, 8:55 am 
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Please don't sweep us again.


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PostPosted: May 9 19, 9:01 am 
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PostPosted: May 9 19, 9:01 am 
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ass joke yada yada

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The St. Louis Cardinals are 13-6 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 8-7 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals\' starter Michael Wacha is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates\' starter Joe Musgrove. Michael Wacha has a 34% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Joe Musgrove has a 24% chance of a QS. If Michael Wacha has a quality start the Cardinals has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.4 and he has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 72%. In Joe Musgrove quality starts the Pirates win 61%. He has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 61% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Marcell Ozuna who averaged 2.75 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 47% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Josh Bell who averaged 2.6 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 43% chance of winning.


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