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 Post subject: Mega contracts no bueno
PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:37 am 
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The thread where we feel good about not signing these sort of contracts.

Miguel Cabrera $248m / 8 Years (2016 - 2023) + 2 Option Years. signed by Detroit Tigers on 3/31/2014 (Extension).

Miguel Cabrera fWAR totals going back to 2010

2010: 6.1
2011: 6.6
2012: 7.3
2013: 8.6
2014: 5.2
2015: 4.6
2016: 4.8
2017: -0.1. 130 GP
2018: 0.7. 38 GP
2019: 0.1. so far


Owed:
2020: $30M. 37 yo
2021: $30M. 38 yo
2022: $32M. 39 yo
2023: $32M. 40 yo

BUYOUT 2024 - $8m.


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:45 am 
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Albert Pujols $240m / 10 Years (2012 - 2021), signed by Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on 12/8/2011 (Free Agent).

fWAR totals going back to 2012

2012: 3.3
2013: 0.5
2014: 2.7
2015: 1.6
2016: 0.8
2017: -1.9
2018: -0.2
2019: -0.1. so far


Owed:
2020: $29M. 40 yo (allegedly)
2021: $30M. 41 yo (allegedly)

No Trade: Full


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:51 am 
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How about big contracts too?

Yu Darvish $126m / 6 Years (2018 - 2023), signed by Chicago Cubs on 2/10/2018 (Free Agent).

fWAR totals going back to 2012

2012: 4.7
2013: 4.7
2014: 3.5
2015: out injured.
2016: 2.8
2017: 3.8
new contract here
2018: 0.3. 8 GP.
2019: -0.4, 8 GP so far.


Owed:
2020: $22M. 33 yo
2021: $22M. 34 yo
2022: $19M. 35 yo
2023: $18M. 36 yo

Limited no trade


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:55 am 
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Well, he's got a point Joce. The mega deals rarely work out. They clearly aren't worth it except as a way of reimbursing the player for past value. And that's not what teams are in business for.

The players need to negotiate removal of their shackles earlier so they can be paid for present value earlier in their careers since the owners have wised up about these failed mega-deals. No question.

If they do that, expect a long lockout. But the owners can't have it both ways.


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:56 am 
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PostPosted: May 10 19, 7:58 am 
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Robinson Cano's contract is working out, I guess. Despite being in his mid-30s, in recent years he's providing just enough value to be surplus value relative to his contract. and some years he's been a steal.


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 8:20 am 
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Didn't we just sign essentially this kind of deal with Goldschmidt?


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 8:40 am 
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heyzeus wrote:
Didn't we just sign essentially this kind of deal with Goldschmidt?


maybe, but i think the key difference is that goldy has been relatively healthy for most of his career. in fact i can't think of a single injury that's kept him out for an extended period of time.

the writing was on the wall for guys like pujols (heel) and miggy (weight).

Goldy seems pretty durable, but we will see.

Plus, is a 5-year deal REALLY considered a mega-contract in this current climate?


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 8:54 am 
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Thread cleanup. Keep it to baseball.


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PostPosted: May 10 19, 9:14 am 
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Paul Goldschmidt

$150m / 5 Years (2020 - 2024)

fWAR going back to 2012 (first year as full-time starter)

2012: 2.7. 145 GP. 20 HR. 18 SB.
2013: 6.0. 160 GP. 36 HR. 15 SB.
2014: 4.3. 109 GP. 19 HR. 9 SB.
2015: 7.2. 159 GP. 33 HR. 21 SB.
2016: 4.9. 158 GP. 24 HR. 32 SB.
2017: 5.2. 155 GP. 36 HR. 18 SB.
2018: 5.1. 158 GP. 33 HR. 7 SB.
Extension here at age 31.

Owed:
2020: 30m. 32 yo.
2021: 30m. 33 yo.
2022: 30m. 34 yo.
2023: 30m. 35 yo.
2024: 30m. 36 yo.

I find it interesting that Goldschmidt was a real SB threat in his 20s, like Holliday was pre-Cardinals. Those days are likely over though. Goldschmidt's sprint speed suggests he's lost a couple steps and he just isn't quite fast enough to take those chances anymore.

I think you can feel good about Goldschmidt through 2022 and assume 2023 and 2024 are near replacement level. My opinion anyway, 35 IIRC is a total cliff.


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