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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 8:39 am 
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Another reason to have considered adding Keuchel is that the Cards are at that sweet spot of a win curve where adding a few wins, even at really high prices, is worth it because of the increased chance for the playoffs.

He is clearly better than Wacha and has been since the start of July (wacha had a few decent starts in June). Having him would have also saved us from using Ponce de Leon as a starter.

It was just a logical move to make at the time and all it cost was money, it would have really increased the playoff odds, it would have saved a lot of innings in the pen, and it might have led to getting in the playoffs which means more money.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:26 am 
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I think the acquisition of Holland is what turned the team off on Kuechel. They haven't had much success with players coming in that have skipped offseason and spring training with the team.

I would have still thrown 14m at the guy, but it's not my money.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:29 am 
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To be fair, they haven't had much success with Wacha since they let him blow past his pitch limit in chase of the no-no last year either.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:30 am 
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TheoSqua wrote:
I think the acquisition of Holland is what turned the team off on Kuechel. They haven't had much success with players coming in that have skipped offseason and spring training with the team.

I would have still thrown 14m at the guy, but it's not my money.


That definitely was a big factor.

And this is all hindsight. Mo could have been thinking I still have Ponce, Gomber, Reyes, and the trade deadline to fall back on if Wacha bombs.

That's a lot of reasons to echew spending $12mm on a mediocre pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:58 am 
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Now 3.3 WAR pitchers are mediocre? For 12 measly million dollars? Come on DMarx.

Love our stable of 0.2 WAR pitchers. They've been great!

And Holland was a move Mo made and should be ridiculed for if it has effects on future signings.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:12 am 
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Fat Strat wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:
Didn’t we just have a big thread on how the Cardinals lack assets?

Sure, Keuchel is better than Wacha. But paying a guy the equivalent of a $20+MM AAV to just be better than your worst pitcher would have been just another bad decision in the past 12 months. “It’s only money and the Cardinals have plenty of it.” Cool. I know that makes me feel better to see Andrew Miller be better than Brett Cecil and the shell of Matt Carpenter be better than Edman.


It's a one year deal. I don't see how that has anything to do with our longterm assets. And we're deciding he's terrible the day after his worst start of the season, when he's still barely past a quarter of a season in innings? That's just bad analysis. If we had this conversation yesterday we're talking about how he's basically the same as he was last season, with some noise in his peripherals because of limited starts. Maybe you were clarvoyant enough to predict his imminent demise, but if you did so, you didn't do it based on any reasonable statisical analysis. ZiPS and other projection systems think he's just fine for the next three years. Not an ace -- not of us claimed he would be -- but not just better than terrible as your post seems to imply.


I think you are missing my point. Signing Keuchel--even if he marginally improved the team--is another step in the wrong direction for the organization. It is more of the same. Let's spend cash to be marginally better than our 5th starter. OK. That might be enough to eek a marginal roster into the playoffs. What it doesn't do:

Make the Cardinals a World Series contender against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees.

Make the Cardinals a better team long-term.

Give the Cardinals someone they could have traded at the deadline to pick up long-term assets.

Give the Cardinals the ability to trade someone else on the roster to pick up long-term assets.


It comes back to what we want from the Cardinals. I thought we were all pretty much in agreement here that we are tired of the Cardinals being a mediocre, borderline playoff team. Keuchel wouldn't have changed that. Maybe he's enough to be the difference to win a weak division or grab a wild card spot. Is that all we want?

The organizational problem is we keep getting Keuchels. I don't want more Keuchels. I want them to do what's necessary to bring in real assets.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:20 am 
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Gotcha. Good points, Popeye.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:23 am 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
Now 3.3 WAR pitchers are mediocre? For 12 measly million dollars? Come on DMarx.

Love our stable of 0.2 WAR pitchers. They've been great!

And Holland was a move Mo made and should be ridiculed for if it has effects on future signings.


Keuchel is currently a 0.1 fWAR pitcher. On pace to be a ~0.2 fWAR pitcher. For $13MM this season.

Obviously that doesn't tell the whole story. Keuchel has generally given the Braves a decent chance to win in most of his starts thus far. Moreso than what the Cardinals have been trotting out there.

But he's as mediocre as they come. He hasn't had a game score above 70 yet this year. He had 3 all of last season. Flaherty has had 4 over the past month. Hell, the walking shell of Adam Wainwright has given us 3 this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:24 am 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
I think you are missing my point. Signing Keuchel--even if he marginally improved the team--is another step in the wrong direction for the organization. It is more of the same. Let's spend cash to be marginally better than our 5th starter. OK. That might be enough to eek a marginal roster into the playoffs. What it doesn't do:

Make the Cardinals a World Series contender against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees.

Make the Cardinals a better team long-term.

Give the Cardinals someone they could have traded at the deadline to pick up long-term assets.

Give the Cardinals the ability to trade someone else on the roster to pick up long-term assets.


It comes back to what we want from the Cardinals. I thought we were all pretty much in agreement here that we are tired of the Cardinals being a mediocre, borderline playoff team. Keuchel wouldn't have changed that. Maybe he's enough to be the difference to win a weak division or grab a wild card spot. Is that all we want?

The organizational problem is we keep getting Keuchels. I don't want more Keuchels. I want them to do what's necessary to bring in real assets.

But it does only cost dollars; not draft picks, not development. NOT signing marginal upgrades that only cost dollars is part of the problem. This team has had an issue since this board started with NOT acquiring reasonably priced upgrades at the bottom of the roster. How many times has a pitcher or bench guy gone and signed somewhere else for cheap-ish that would have improved our worst spot?

In 2014 I lobbied for signing an extra starter and got shouted down with "We have too many SP's as it is" and only 4 went more than 100 innings. No one wanted to block Joe Kelly or Marco Gonzalez and we had to make a trade for Justin Masterson. We traded assets for something that probably had an equivalent available for a cheap deal in free agency. That's the problem and the exact one that Keuchel solves.

Signing Dallas wouldn't have 'fixed' this club's asset problems; it wouldn't have fixed this years ball club but NOT signing him and then needing a SP at the deadline is a symptom of a larger problem. It's a position the Front Office has been in MULTIPLE times in this era and doesn't address. I want more Keuchels because they are marginal upgrades but I want the team to be upgrading a 90 win team with those players not an 80 win team and that difference I think is made minor league talent evaluation and development.


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 Post subject: Re: Dallas to Atlanta
PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:32 am 
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We didn't need a Keuchel at the deadline though. We needed an ace type pitcher. We would have still needed an ace type pitcher had we signed Keuchel. And we still wouldn't have had the available assets to get a deal done.

We could have eeked into the playoffs though and had a chance, which is fine. And it is only money, which is fine. We keep throwing away real dollars at the wrong problems though.


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