GatewayRedbirds.com

A Message Board Dedicated to Discussing St. Louis Cardinals Baseball!
It is currently August 26 19, 2:12 am

All times are UTC - 6 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Author Message
PostPosted: August 6 19, 12:45 pm 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: November 9 06, 6:45 am
Posts: 19864
Location: a proud midwestern metropolis
ShildtForBrains wrote:
as opposed to the concept of depending on the lead off batter to get on base... i.e. - hits and walks

are you saying that pitch selection and working the count are in opposition to getting on base?

He still does that very well. His OBP is close to league average despite hitting .212.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 1:02 pm 
Offline
Master of Hyperbole
User avatar

Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am
Posts: 6106
As bad as Carpenter's been this year, and it's been bad, he's still a better than Edman.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 1:06 pm 
Offline
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie

Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Posts: 27453
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List
Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 1:10 pm 
Offline
Master of Hyperbole
User avatar

Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am
Posts: 6106
Fat Strat wrote:
Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.

Lost in this is how he was even worse at the beginning of 2018 before his crazy surge. Is a breakout looming or was that one last hurrah and his decline in full swing now?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 3:04 pm 
Offline
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie

Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Posts: 27453
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.

Lost in this is how he was even worse at the beginning of 2018 before his crazy surge. Is a breakout looming or was that one last hurrah and his decline in full swing now?


I have been holding out on Carpenter because his LD% has remained high while his BABIP has plummeted. That has now remained consistent through the calendar year. Much higher LD% than his BABIP would indicate. That usually implies some bad luck. But, the last 12 months actually look very similar to his entire 2017 season - lower BABIP with a good LD%, but now he is missing the ridiculous BB rate (17% to ) and has experienced a power drop (.209 ISO to .152).

So, if I told you that a player experienced a noticeable but not extreme drop in BB% and power between his age 31 and age 33 seasons, despite maintaining a consistent (though low) BABIP and LD% what is the logical conclusion we would draw? Age-related decline. Obvious. Just perfectly fits the expected trend.

You have to throw out part of his age 32 season to get there, though, which is why this was a hard case. But it is not unusual at all for an elite player to flash elite production for a month or more even in the midst of progressive decline. So, while it looks to the casual fan like Carpenter has experienced fall-off-the-cliff decline, it’s actually much easier to explain Carpenter’s downturn in a three-year phase starting in 2017 and continuing through now, with 3 hot months in the middle of 18 not-so-hot.

Edit: back to my initial point... High BABIP players, and Marp qualifies, tend to exhibit a decrease in BABIp as they age, despite consistencies in their LD%. Some of this is anecdotal - as in, I have noticed it but don’t have real data to point to off hand, maybe looking at David Freese as an example might shed light in the situation. Freese and Marp are somewhat similar in their high BABIP, line-drive approach. Freese’s decline has been less noticeable, but he has also been less exposed in his roles and is not as subject to shifting. We can’t discount the shift as a significant part of this.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 3:16 pm 
Offline
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie

Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Posts: 27453
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List
And just to answer the question the question more directly - is a breakout looming? It is likely that Carpenter will have some hot spells every now and then. That elite ability is still there, just not as accessible as it used to be. So a good month here or there is likely. But, overall, down is the direction he is moving and will move. The ups won’t be as high. The downs will be lower. And timing those out for, say, a late season postseason push, is a fool’s errand.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 3:48 pm 
Offline
Master of Hyperbole
User avatar

Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am
Posts: 6106
What's funny is that he's not even bad against the shift in the past calendar year (according to Fangraphs) so that's not even eating at his production that much.

107 wRC+ against non-traditional shift the past year.

Everything in play around the infield is getting fielded. Lots of shallow fly balls too. His inability to hit home runs and hit the ball far is the biggest concern.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 4:17 pm 
Offline
just can't quit you.
User avatar

Joined: April 18 06, 4:33 pm
Posts: 24160
Location: Lost
I think the shift is in his head...along with the decline phase of his career.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: August 6 19, 11:01 pm 
Offline
All-Star
User avatar

Joined: June 4 17, 10:04 pm
Posts: 1940
Location: portlandbugle.com
Time to give him to a nice farm family.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

All times are UTC - 6 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 26 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group