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 Post subject: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 8:42 am 
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"I could totally eat a person if it were a life/death situation"
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Who are the Cardinals biggest assets right now, all things considered?

DeJong, Wong, O'Neil are the only ones I can think of on the position player side and at the MLB level.
Plenty more on the pitcher side but not any slam dunks. Flaherty, Martinez, Gallegos, Gant, Mikolas, Hicks.

Everyone else is on expiring or inflated contracts, right?

Sheesh. This picture is very grimm. I just became depressed. Convince me otherwise.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 8:51 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 8:54 am 
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How are you defining asset? As in, trade asset?


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:06 am 
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Excluding the big contract older guys because they don't fit the term "asset" to me.

Tier 1: DeJong, C. Martinez, Gorman, Carlson, Flaherty, Hicks

Tier 2: Wong, O'Neill, Reyes

Tier 3: Knizner, Gallegos, Hudson


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:09 am 
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ozuna looks like he has the biggest ass to me


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:12 am 
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I was just thinking about posting a thread called "Why I think Mo/Girsch should be fired" for exactly the reasons that you point to. Goldschmidt qualifies for your list on the offensive side, as even in a down year based mostly around BABIP issues, he's on pace for 3 WAR or so. But, beyond those few you name plus Carlson, Gorman, and Knizner, the front office has allowed the entire system to be decimated to build a team that is clearly way behind the rest of the contenders in the NL in terms of talent, and then locked us into this roster with a variety of poor financial decisions. Our inability to make a move of any significance -- starter -- at the deadline when they clearly wanted to get one and their inability to read the market and pivot to other assets -- reliever or LH OF'er (as other teams easily did) -- is further evidence of the failures of the entire organization, from both an assets standpoint and a strategic standpoint.

Add it up and I just don't see how ownership can justify continued faith in this leadership team. I don't think that Mo is going anywhere just because of the devotion that DeWitt has displayed in the past/present, but this all falls on him and Girsch. I'm not one for firing people for punitive reasons -- "Mo had a bad trade deadline so he should be fired!" Stability in a front office is a major key to long-term success. But, I do not believe that Mo or Girsch have the capacity to resurrect us from our impending (and probably present) crisis.


If I try to look at the organization from the positive side, I can come up with a few counters to my argument:
1. The loss of draft picks from the scandal. Yes, that is hard for any organization to overcome and has certainly impacted system depth. We said at the time that the impact of that issue would not show up for several years. Well, here we are. So, a big part of our problems stem from that. But, Mo/Girsch (maybe Girsch wasn't in place then) oversaw an organization where that occurred and I don't know any organization that does not hold its leaders responsible for issues like the one that occurred with the Astros. Secondly, knowing the likely impact of the loss of draft picks, the Cards had several opportunities to counter it -- including Roberts and increased spending internationally -- and they bypassed it. So, one mistake by a rogue(?) employee is compounded by an organizational decision not to correct for it.
2. Player performance. Is it really the fault of the front office that the players the Cards have been depending on have under performed? Go down the list -- Mikolas, Flaherty (improving!), Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Wong, O'Neill, Montero, Alex Reyes, Martinez' shoulder, etc. etc. really the fault of the front office? A lot of this should be on individual players. But, when you consider the entire system collectively, I believe the answer is yes, the front office and their team is responsible for the systemic decline of player performance and the decisions to commit to those players. Variance in performance is expected and happens to all organizations, but poor performance has become so consistent and so far reaching within the Cards roster and minor league system (at least over the last 2 years) that it is hard to see it as anything more than an organization-wide issue.
3. But, who knew? Who knew that Oscar Mercado was going to suddenly break out the moment he was traded? Who knew that Luke Voit was going to suddenly become a legitimate player? Yes, from an analytical standpoint, those things are head-scratchers. Then again, the Yankees and Indians, along with the Dodgers and Brewers, have demonstrated pretty advanced scouting and development abilities. Who knew? Well, maybe the Yankees and Indians knew. And maybe they also knew that the pieces they were giving us in return (with the exception of Gallegos) weren't what we hoped they were. You can probably say similar things with the Rays and Pham -- though arguably we all knew that Pham was better than his performance indicated at the time of his trade. And Piscotty as well, though there were definitely family issues involved here that we can't write off.

That's the only defense I can offer, and I believe those arguments are easily picked apart. I've resisted it for a long time because even patchy, dry grass can be greener than a desert. It can be worse than Mo and Girsch. Much worse. But, the time has come to do something radical and Mo and Girsch are clearly not capable of it.


Last edited by Fat Strat on August 6 19, 9:23 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:20 am 
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Quote:
The Cardinals’ Deadline Failure Was a Long Time Coming
by Craig Edwards
August 6, 2019


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardina ... me-coming/

Quote:
The Cardinals’ deadline decisions on whether or not to chase a playoff spot have been mostly reasonable since 2014, and the team has only made one really poor trade in that time. So what are we to make of the Cardinals’ decision not to give up a package headlined by O’Neill or Bader for Zack Wheeler? Presumably the club attempted to make a move for players potentially under contract beyond 2019, like Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer, Mike Minor, and Robbie Ray. If we give the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt and assume that Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman would’ve been required, then the Cardinals were probably correct to pass on those potential deals. But Wheeler presents a harder call.

Playing it safe meant the team missed the playoffs in 2016, 2017, and 2018. The Cardinals were supposedly lucky to have missed out on David Price and Jason Heyward after 2016, but over the next few years used that money on Leake and Fowler ($90 million and a draft pick for 6.5 WAR with $30 million still owed to Fowler), and relievers like Brett Cecil, Greg Holland and Luke Gregerson ($55 million and a draft pick for 0.5 WAR) while Heyward (6.5 WAR for $78 million with $106 million remaining) and Price (11 WAR for $121 million with $96 million remaining) have been better deals with more production thus far, even with considerable amounts still owed. The Cardinals entered this past offseason with the potential to go all in, but they again took a more modest approach, hoping that trading for Paul Goldschmidt would be enough for the offense, and that the rotation would stay healthy and effective. They entered the season with an 85-win projection, a 29% chance at the division, and a 38% shot at the division series, right about where they are today.

If they wanted to prove that “2019 matters,” as John Mozeliak said when he traded for Goldschmidt, he didn’t need to trade Bader or O’Neill for Wheeler. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were still available to provide production now, and maintain the organizational depth needed to make trades elsewhere. When Carlos Martinez went down in spring training and Alex Reyes‘ move to the rotation seemed unlikely, they could have added Dallas Keuchel or even Gio Gonzalez. When 37-year-old Adam Wainwright was suddenly the team’s third best starter, as Michael Wacha and Daniel Ponce de Leon struggled, Alex Reyes couldn’t pull it together, and Dakota Hudson was getting results despite poor peripherals, Dallas Keuchel was still out there.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:23 am 
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Is it really the fault of the front office that the players the Cards have been depending on have under performed? Go down the list -- Mikolas, Flaherty (improving!), Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Wong, O'Neill, Montero, Alex Reyes, Martinez' shoulder, etc. etc. really the fault of the front office? I believe the answer is yes, when you consider the entire context. Variance in performance is expected and happens to all organizations, but poor performance has become so consistent and so far reaching within the Cards roster and minor league system (at least over the last 2 years) that it is hard to see it as anything more than systemic

Been saying this for a year now. They don't plan for variance correctly.

The (bad) dice rolls in their own New Moneyball stats like GB% for pitchers like Hudson should also be added to their growing list of ineptitude. The bad reliever and Leake signings that led to tons of dead money.

I agree with the rest of your post Fat Strat, as a lot of what you say is literally stuff I posted about in random threads pointing to Mozeliak's past half decade of mediocrity. Could you imagine a hot shot MIT Rays style GM with the funds the Cardinals have?

There's outside-the-line factors why Mo should be fired too. The way he handled Dexter Fowler last year was a joke. I was impressed with the firing of Matheny and it inspired new optimism in the org for me when the awful coaches were canned. But now we're seeing those familiar org problems resurface again. It's just time for new blood. His contract is up in 2020, just start fresh now Bill, please. Move on from Mo.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:27 am 
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Fat Strat wrote:
I've resisted it for a long time because even patchy, dry grass can be greener than a desert. It can be worse than Mo and Girsch. Much worse. But, the time has come to do something radical and Mo and Girsch are clearly not capable of it.

Good analysis though I'm not sure I agree with you here.

Is a perennial .500 team with maybe some hope of accidentally falling in to the playoffs (2006, I'm looking at you) better than starting over even if it means a few years of bad baseball?

I honestly struggle with this because it was something I went through with Purdue Football the last ten years. When things are always 'ok' there's less impetus to make change. If things were worse after a change, you make another change. Eventually you'd have to figure it out, right? I know instability is bad but isn't incompetence worse?


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Assets
PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:27 am 
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heyzeus wrote:
How are you defining asset? As in, trade asset?

Produces more than he costs.


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