Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on November 19. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.) I included a bonus Q&A at the end about Japanese players.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... -6446.html

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Would a package centered around Happ & Almora be enough to land Marte?

Steve Adams
No. Almora's stock is at an all-time low and Happ hasn't done much of anything in the Majors. Marte is way more valuable than that.
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Is 2/$20 enough to get Moose back to Milwaukee? Would it take something bigger to get him signed before Rendon/Donaldson, or will he wait to let competition drive up the price?

Steve Adams
With all the struggles he's (inexplicably) had to find a multi-year deal, I wonder if he'd just pounce on 2/20. I think he's better than that, but I thought he was way better than 1/10 last year and 1/6.5 the year before. The first time around, I get, with the QO hanging over him and Boras setting out aiming for the moon.

But last winter, to see him settle for 1/10 ... that was still shocking.

I think Moustakas has done enough to reasonably command three years, but that market hasn't been there for him in previous free agency stints. 2/24 or something in that range may work.
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If the Pirates do decide to make Bell available, should the Jays go after him as they could be contending in 2021?

Steve Adams
He's only controlled through 2022, will earn huge arbitration salaries and probably won't be an extension candidate (Boras). I don't see giving up a bunch of young talent to get him as a good play for a team in the Jays' spot.

Plus, first base is one of the easiest spots to find production, so paying a premium before you're even ready to contend seems particularly questionable.
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Thoughts on the Brewers re-branding?

Steve Adams
I dig the new jerseys and the slight modifications to the logo. Looks good to me.
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Is Didi almost a lock to be a Red? Doesn't seem to be a lot of SS openings.

Steve Adams
Nah. Brewers could use an SS, Twins could move Polanco to 2B, Phillies could move Segura to 2B/3B. Marlins make some sense and are apparently going to spend a bit of cash this winter (not that he'd want to sign there necessarily). I think there'll be enough teams who see him as a rare FA opportunity that he'll have a more diverse market than that.
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I have read reports about teams trading for front line SP, but never see any names attached. Which (if any) frontline starters are actually available?

Steve Adams
There aren't really many. Corey Kluber's name will probably be floated around again. Robbie Ray seems likely to be available.

Most of the appealing names are guy with great stuff but a lack of consistency -- pitchers who teams believe they can coax a high-end performance out of with better game planning and some pitch-selection alterations. Jon Gray, Chris Archer, Matthew Boyd all come to mind.
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Cardinals already needed a big bat. Now with Ozuna gone, how are they going to replace Ozuna's bat and get a 2nd big bat?

Steve Adams
Ozuna has only ever had one season that really qualifies him as a "big bat." The Statcast profile on him is tantalizing, as his hard-hit rates, exit velocities, barrel rates etc. are all elite. But outside of that 37-homer season in '17, he's been an above-average but not great hitter.

I think the Cards are going to have to bet pretty heavily on some internal rebounds and some steps forward from the Tyler O'Neills of the world. They're already projected to have about $167MM on the books in '20, and they're stuck with the Carpenter/Fowler/Cecil deals for the most part. Possible they bring in Dickerson or Garcia or someone of that ilk if they're struggling to find a home late in the winter, but I don't see them as big Josh Donaldson players or anything like that.
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JBJ to the Cubs for Quintana? Money looks to be even.

Steve Adams
Don't think the Cubs do that.
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What does Arcia/Shaw bring back in a package? Anything?

Steve Adams
Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw have minimal trade value at this point. They're both closer to reclamation projects than anything else.
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Your comment about Bell is interesting. You say the player's agent affects his trade value. I don't disagree, but is there data suggesting that certain agents are having a negative effect on players drafted below, say, slot 50?

Steve Adams
I wasn't really implying that Boras impacts Bell's theoretical value. For a win-now team, who cares? The Nationals or Twins or any win-now team with an opening at 1B/DH would be well within reason to pursue that type of trade and not really give a damn that he might walk in free agency.

When you're talking about a rebuilding club, though, if you're basically punting the first season of value -- and possibly the second, depending on how the rebuild progresses -- if you're giving up significant young talent for someone I think it's best to be able to have a potential extension in your back pocket.
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Assuming the Braves don't resign Donaldson, which is a more realistic trade target? Andujar or Kris Bryant?

Steve Adams
Generally speaking -- be it for the Braves or anyone -- I think Andujar is a more viable trade piece. The Yankees have a pretty impressive haul of infield depth.

Cubs don't HAVE to trade Bryant or anything, so it'll be more dependent on whether a team meets what should be a pretty high asking price. Bryant was north of 130 in both OPS+ and wRC+.
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Could Starling Marte fetch a lower-end Top 100 prospect?

Steve Adams
Should be able to fetch more than that.
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Could the Blue Jays take on the Carpenter contract from St. Louis to take back a prospect or two?

Steve Adams
They certainly could, but teams haven't really operated in that capacity as much as we like to kind of throw it around. But they have the payroll space and could just put Rowdy at DH, Carp at 1B.
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Any rumors of the Reds going after Whit Merrifield for 2b? He'd be a great addition.

Steve Adams
Royals GM Dayton Moore has repeatedly shot down any notion of even being open to trading Merrifield.
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Which of Japanese players coming over are you most excited to see?

Steve Adams
Probably Tsutsugo, since home runs are fun (hopefully some bat flips!) ... but Akiyama seems like he might be a more valuable player to a team.
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