Fat Strat Help Line

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Fat Strat
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Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List

Re: Fat Strat Help Line

Post by Fat Strat »

dmarx114 wrote:Fat, I would be curious as to what a Flaherty extension this spring would look like.
Hmmm... I think someone already covered that. Will try to find a link for you.

This is the closest I found is this: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/12/20 ... s-severino

I've written bits and pieces about it here and there, but basically, the goal here is to not only extend Flaherty but entice him to take the extension. So, you buy out his Arb years with midpoint arb estimates for elite starters. Plenty of examples of that. Basically, you're giving him what he would have received had he gone to arbitration. No real discount. Then I do 2 years past that at $30-35M per, basically the highest amounts awarded to a pre-arb pitcher, whatever those are. That would put him at around 29/30 years old when he hits FA and in line for a huge payday.

I would probably wait until after the season to offer him that. We need to know for sure that he's one of the best pitchers in the league. Flaherty thinks he is -- and he probably is -- so he won't take any extension that pays him less than that.

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dmarx114
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Re: Fat Strat Help Line

Post by dmarx114 »

Fat Strat wrote:
dmarx114 wrote:Fat, I would be curious as to what a Flaherty extension this spring would look like.
Hmmm... I think someone already covered that. Will try to find a link for you.

This is the closest I found is this: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/12/20 ... s-severino

I've written bits and pieces about it here and there, but basically, the goal here is to not only extend Flaherty but entice him to take the extension. So, you buy out his Arb years with midpoint arb estimates for elite starters. Plenty of examples of that. Basically, you're giving him what he would have received had he gone to arbitration. No real discount. Then I do 2 years past that at $30-35M per, basically the highest amounts awarded to a pre-arb pitcher, whatever those are. That would put him at around 29/30 years old when he hits FA and in line for a huge payday.

I would probably wait until after the season to offer him that. We need to know for sure that he's one of the best pitchers in the league. Flaherty thinks he is -- and he probably is -- so he won't take any extension that pays him less than that.
I can see a scenario where Flaherty takes a significant discount to lock in a long term deal.

If they give him a 5 year deal that starts this year and buys out 1 year of free agency, I can see him accepting something like 5 years/$55mm.

2020: $5mm
2021: $10mm
2022: $10mm
2023: $15mm
2024: $15mm

Still a free agent at age 30.

Fat Strat
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Posts: 28050
Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List

Re: Fat Strat Help Line

Post by Fat Strat »

dmarx114 wrote:I can see a scenario where Flaherty takes a significant discount to lock in a long term deal.

If they give him a 5 year deal that starts this year and buys out 1 year of free agency, I can see him accepting something like 5 years/$55mm.

2020: $5mm
2021: $10mm
2022: $10mm
2023: $15mm
2024: $15mm

Still a free agent at age 30.
No chance he'll accept that or the team offer that. You're giving him about $10M or so early in his contract unnecessarily, which the team won't want to do - value of money over time & unnecessary budget hit. Arb 2 might be pretty accurate ('22), and then you are asking him to take about a $25-35M hit the final years. By 2024, we'll be looking at $40M salaries for elite pitchers. You're wanting him to accept a salary in his post-arb years comparable to what what Paul DeJong, a good not great SS, accepted 2 years ago. He's already said he won't take a buyout deal less than full value. Cards are going to have to pay today's market price if they want to keep him. Keep in mind that today's market price is already a discount over 2024's market price.

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dmarx114
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Re: Fat Strat Help Line

Post by dmarx114 »

Fat Strat wrote:
dmarx114 wrote:I can see a scenario where Flaherty takes a significant discount to lock in a long term deal.

If they give him a 5 year deal that starts this year and buys out 1 year of free agency, I can see him accepting something like 5 years/$55mm.

2020: $5mm
2021: $10mm
2022: $10mm
2023: $15mm
2024: $15mm

Still a free agent at age 30.
No chance he'll accept that or the team offer that. You're giving him about $10M or so early in his contract unnecessarily, which the team won't want to do - value of money over time & unnecessary budget hit. Arb 2 might be pretty accurate ('22), and then you are asking him to take about a $25-35M hit the final years. By 2024, we'll be looking at $40M salaries for elite pitchers. You're wanting him to accept a salary in his post-arb years comparable to what what Paul DeJong, a good not great SS, accepted 2 years ago. He's already said he won't take a buyout deal less than full value. Cards are going to have to pay today's market price if they want to keep him. Keep in mind that today's market price is already a discount over 2024's market price.
The team would give him more money now to get a reduced rate later. That's the entire point. Exactly how much is what I am unsure about.

There's risk for Flaherty going year to year. He should ask Wacha how quickly things can change.

Also, Acuna signed a pretty team friendly deal. Locking in life changing money is a big deal.

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