Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Talk about the Cardinals minor league baseball
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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

I went to see the Redbirds get their behinds handed to them by Omaha yesterday. Still fun to see Taveras & Piscotty play in person for the first time (and to see Oscar go deep).

I am also pretty certain I won't see another game like I saw Brett Eibner have yesterday:

5-5, 2 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 R, 9 RBI

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33anda3rd
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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

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Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I'm 100% on board with making sure that offensive value gets properly weighted(I'm keeping a list of anyone who puts Lindor in front of Baez in prospect rankings), but I think part of it too is what you're trying to measure. The Elvis/Yuni profile, if they end up not being quite the offensive player as those guys, they can still be of some value(see Escobar, Alcides). If Adams or Vogelbach don't show and keep their bats to a very high standard all the way through, what are they? Daryl Ward? Randall Simon? There's a continuum of outcomes, and the guys with Young Player skills are more bunched in the middle, which does have its value. Make no mistake though, I like that paragraph of Parks about future abilities. Too often people point to acceptable performance relative to age/level to go along with Young Player's skills as reason for optimism, when many times the reason they even have that acceptable performance is due to an approach that also limits future projection.
Very well said, agree 100%.

The problem is this, and it's the problem from back in good ol' Moneyball w/ the scouts who think Hatteberg is a bad-bodied bum who has no value: Scouts don't understand what creates value at the MLB level, and how certain skills contribute to value at that level. They don't get how good a player has to be defensively to save as many runs as a good offensive player contributes. You have to be 100% on defense to be as good as a guy who's 75% on offense, roughly. It's pure opportunity. They don't get it, the scouts, so they diminish offense-first prospects and hype the lesser offensive talents who play good D.

If we're going on the tools of hit/power/speed/glove/arm and I can pick from...
SS: 55/50/60/70/70
RF: 60/70/50/50/50

I'll take the RF every damn time. Every damn time. He will be, if both end up at the 70th percentile of their projection based on their current skill set, more valuable than the SS.

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by phins »

That SS is an All-Star, borderline MVP candidate. There is no SS in all of baseball with that tool set.

A player to have three tools that are at least one standard deviation above the major league mean, two that are two standard deviations above the mean, a fourth a tick above average, and the fifth average is outstanding, to have those tools at SS is worth its weight in gold.

But I've read enough to know we're not going to agree on this.

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33anda3rd
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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

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phins wrote:That SS is an All-Star, borderline MVP candidate. There is no SS in all of baseball with that tool set.
In the majors? No. In the Minors?

Parks, on Lindor: 7 glove, 6 arm, 6+ potential hit
Parks, on Correa: 7 arm, 6+ raw, 6 glove, 6 potential hit
Parks, on Russell: 6 potential hit, 6 potential raw, 6 arm, 6 potential glove
Parks, on Bogaerts: 6+ potential hit, 6+ potential power, 6 arm, 5 glove
Parks, on Baez: 8 potential power, 6+ potential hit, 7 arm, 6 potential glove
Parks, on Odor: 7 future (ie potential) hit, 5 future (ibid) power, 5 arm, 6 potential glove, 5 run
Parks, on Alcantara: 6+ run, 6 arm, 5+ potential glove, 5+ potential hit, 5+ potential power

That's my point, that there's no one in MLB with those tool lines. Once you get past potential and start getting real (see what happens when 7 MI prospects are picked, to live in a house....) you see how the potential scouting thing for this type of player tends to fall short.

There's a lot of hype for these MI prospects who are "potential" 55/55/60/60/60 players considering how many MI end up being 55/55/60/60/60 in the show--which is to say, virtually none. Tulo, and no one else since A-Rod. Most likely those end up being a lot of overall 50 players in MLB--a bit above league average. If I said I'll take Kris Bryant, you take all 7 of the above, and we'll bet a given amount on each, Bryant/Baez, Bryant/Lindor, Bryant/Correa, etc. for all 7 on who has the most career value, you'd be crazy to take the bet. Because Bryant is a polished, nearly finished hitter whose bat will carry him to a lot more value than those guys will provide as meh hitters with good gloves--except Baez. That's just how value works at MLB--you have to be Simba good to put up as much value as Jayson Werth. You have to be historically freaking awesome as a D-first SS to be as good as a dude who's just, like, "hey, he's really good with the bat but a defensive liability in the OF." Yet all those SS prospects are getting more love than Bryant from the guys who create online followings raving about prospects. The Parks schtick with Lindor (and the Parks schtick in general) is getting a little tired. I've seen Lindor, at multiple levels in different years. He's good. He's not top-10 prospects good. Only Baez from the above is that good, and I'd probably put Bogie/Correa above all the rest.

BA, I'll note, ranked Lindor and Russell outside the top-10, behind Bryant, and Bogie, Baez, Correa. Their POV on that bunch is one I agree with.

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by phins »

So like I said, no one.

You'd take a slightly above average RF'er over a HOF type SS. Ok, that's fine.

There are a ton of different viewpoints on prospects and you have a different one than mine. I respect that.

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by ntexascardfan »

Alex Reyes is off to a quick start tonight after a quirky season debut that included 5 innings of shutout ball and 7 walks.

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33anda3rd
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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

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phins wrote:You'd take a slightly above average RF'er over a HOF type SS. Ok, that's fine.
That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying I'd take a guy who projects to hit well who is a corner OF prospect over a guy who projects to play defensive SS well and hits lightly.

The reason I'd take that is those corner OF who hit well are more likely to be HOF players than the glove-first SS.

How many glove-first SS are in the HOF? Ozzie.

How many bat-first corner guys are in the HOF? How much time do you have?

Same question, but for MVP winners?

Of the 28 MVP awards since 2000, 16, over half, have been by corner guys. Jeff Kent and Pedey and Tejada and Rollins all undeservingly won in years when corner men or A-Rod were better, and that number should be more like 19/28 to corner guys, 4/28 to A-Rod, with 5 scattered around for Cutch and so on. The corner guys dominate the leaderboards. If you'd rather have a SS prospect whose gonna field good than a corner guy who mashes, you gotta come to terms with the reality of who creates value at the MLB level instead of the perception of what will create value/what projects to create value by scouts who, too often, don't understand value at the MLB level. Ask Jason Parks about WAR and you'll get dismissiveness or a "you're asking the wrong guy."

How about 7+ WAR seasons? How about career WAR? There's not one SS who is glove-dependent for his value (read: not A-Rod or Jeter or Tuo) in the last 30 years who has had nearly the value of Pujols, Bonds, Miggy, Vlad, Chipper, Beltran, Berkman, Helton, Bagwell, Ichiro, Manny, etc. The closest you'll find is Rollins, who is about 3/4 as valuable as Helton or Berkman, who had basically no defensive value.

Corner players, demonstrably, contribute more value at the MLB level. So MI prospects, theoretically, should not en masse be ranked higher than the corner guys if we're trying to project who the best prospects are and we want to be taken seriously.

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by jim »

For the Pirates Gregory Polanco is hitting .417 at Indianapolis. How long before he's in Pittsburgh, especially if they keep struggling?

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by jim »

I didn't realize Tyler Greene went to the Braves organization. He's playing for Gwinnett, their AAA affiliate. 200/195/375 slash line through 12 games.

This is a case of a guy with mind boggling athleticism that just couldn't figure out what Billy Beane referred to as "trick" of playing baseball.

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Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings

Post by pioneer98 »

In the Midwest League tonight, the Clinton Lumberkings are playing @ Burlington Bees. In the bottom of the 5th inning the Bees scored 9 runs to take a 17 to 1 lead. The Lumberkings got 6 runs in the 6th, 5 runs in the 8th, and then 5 more in the 9th to tie it. The tying runs scored on a grand slam by Marcus Littlewood. This game is now heading to the 11th inning tied at 17! Here is the box score:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.js ... x&sid=l118

Just back on Saturday the Lumberkings had a similar game. They trailed 12-4 after 5 innings and then ended up winning 16-13.

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