Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Talk about the Cardinals minor league baseball
Magneto2.0
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Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Magneto2.0 »

The Top Ten
OF Stephen Piscotty
LHP Marco Gonzales
RHP Alexander Reyes
RHP Jack Flaherty
LHP Rob Kaminsky
OF Charlie Tilson
LHP Tim Cooney
RHP Sam Tuivailala
RHP Luke Weaver
C Carson Kelly

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Cardinals possess an abundance of young, controllable players, a collection that runs even deeper than the top 10 list above. The Birds have long been one of the premier identifiers of young assets in the game, and have churned out more first-division talent than virtually any team over the past 10 years. Quite a few names on this list have potential six (or higher) OFP ceilings, while others are primed to become regular contributors at the big-league level. The risk profile for these players is noticeably lower than most organizations, as six of the 10 names on the list have already reached the big-league level.

Yes, I’ve checked four times, and Jason Heyward is still somehow only 25. While the bat has not developed as hoped, his plus-plus defense has helped soften the blow. He still has excellent on-base ability, and sometime soon it could all click, which would make him one of the best all-around talents in the game. Injury woes aside, Michael Wacha has all of the ingredients to be a strong no. 2 starter in his peak years, playing Robin to Adam Wainwright’s Batman. When healthy, it’s reasonable to expect 200-plus innings of high-two and low-three ERAs with the peripherals to match, especially as he continues to refine his breaking ball.

Kolten Wong was hot and cold throughout the year, although his highs and lows might stabilize moving forward. His realistic role is that of a first-division second baseman, and one who can hit at the top of a lineup. Where it starts to get tricky is the Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Stephen Piscotty cluster. Rosenthal didn’t build on 2013 as many had hoped, but the upside remains one of the most effective relievers in the game, with a fastball that grades out to plus-plus at worst. Martinez is easily the hardest to rank on this list, as his future role remains up in the air. As always, the Cardinals have a bevy of rotation options, but despite logging a majority of his major-league innings out of the pen the flame-throwing Dominican could still wind up a starter long term, where he maintains top-of-the-rotation potential. —Jordan Gorosh


A Parting Thought: The Cardinals continue to produce a blend of impact and role profiles throughout the system, with noteworthy talent at each level giving comfort that the pipeline of major-league contributors isn’t likely to dry up anytime soon.

phins
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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by phins »

Tilson, Cooney, Tui are too high, but I solid write-up.

No Vaughn Bryan? /snark

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Magneto2.0 wrote:The Top Ten
OF Stephen Piscotty
LHP Marco Gonzales
RHP Alexander Reyes
RHP Jack Flaherty
LHP Rob Kaminsky
OF Charlie Tilson
LHP Tim Cooney
RHP Sam Tuivailala
RHP Luke Weaver
C Carson Kelly

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Cardinals possess an abundance of young, controllable players, a collection that runs even deeper than the top 10 list above. The Birds have long been one of the premier identifiers of young assets in the game, and have churned out more first-division talent than virtually any team over the past 10 years. Quite a few names on this list have potential six (or higher) OFP ceilings, while others are primed to become regular contributors at the big-league level. The risk profile for these players is noticeably lower than most organizations, as six of the 10 names on the list have already reached the big-league level.

Yes, I’ve checked four times, and Jason Heyward is still somehow only 25. While the bat has not developed as hoped, his plus-plus defense has helped soften the blow. He still has excellent on-base ability, and sometime soon it could all click, which would make him one of the best all-around talents in the game. Injury woes aside, Michael Wacha has all of the ingredients to be a strong no. 2 starter in his peak years, playing Robin to Adam Wainwright’s Batman. When healthy, it’s reasonable to expect 200-plus innings of high-two and low-three ERAs with the peripherals to match, especially as he continues to refine his breaking ball.

Kolten Wong was hot and cold throughout the year, although his highs and lows might stabilize moving forward. His realistic role is that of a first-division second baseman, and one who can hit at the top of a lineup. Where it starts to get tricky is the Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Stephen Piscotty cluster. Rosenthal didn’t build on 2013 as many had hoped, but the upside remains one of the most effective relievers in the game, with a fastball that grades out to plus-plus at worst. Martinez is easily the hardest to rank on this list, as his future role remains up in the air. As always, the Cardinals have a bevy of rotation options, but despite logging a majority of his major-league innings out of the pen the flame-throwing Dominican could still wind up a starter long term, where he maintains top-of-the-rotation potential. —Jordan Gorosh


A Parting Thought: The Cardinals continue to produce a blend of impact and role profiles throughout the system, with noteworthy talent at each level giving comfort that the pipeline of major-league contributors isn’t likely to dry up anytime soon.
The two bolded names are the only ones with big league experience, right?

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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Swirls »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Magneto2.0 wrote:The Top Ten
OF Stephen Piscotty
LHP Marco Gonzales
RHP Alexander Reyes
RHP Jack Flaherty
LHP Rob Kaminsky
OF Charlie Tilson
LHP Tim Cooney
RHP Sam Tuivailala
RHP Luke Weaver
C Carson Kelly

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Cardinals possess an abundance of young, controllable players, a collection that runs even deeper than the top 10 list above. The Birds have long been one of the premier identifiers of young assets in the game, and have churned out more first-division talent than virtually any team over the past 10 years. Quite a few names on this list have potential six (or higher) OFP ceilings, while others are primed to become regular contributors at the big-league level. The risk profile for these players is noticeably lower than most organizations, as six of the 10 names on the list have already reached the big-league level.

Yes, I’ve checked four times, and Jason Heyward is still somehow only 25. While the bat has not developed as hoped, his plus-plus defense has helped soften the blow. He still has excellent on-base ability, and sometime soon it could all click, which would make him one of the best all-around talents in the game. Injury woes aside, Michael Wacha has all of the ingredients to be a strong no. 2 starter in his peak years, playing Robin to Adam Wainwright’s Batman. When healthy, it’s reasonable to expect 200-plus innings of high-two and low-three ERAs with the peripherals to match, especially as he continues to refine his breaking ball.

Kolten Wong was hot and cold throughout the year, although his highs and lows might stabilize moving forward. His realistic role is that of a first-division second baseman, and one who can hit at the top of a lineup. Where it starts to get tricky is the Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Stephen Piscotty cluster. Rosenthal didn’t build on 2013 as many had hoped, but the upside remains one of the most effective relievers in the game, with a fastball that grades out to plus-plus at worst. Martinez is easily the hardest to rank on this list, as his future role remains up in the air. As always, the Cardinals have a bevy of rotation options, but despite logging a majority of his major-league innings out of the pen the flame-throwing Dominican could still wind up a starter long term, where he maintains top-of-the-rotation potential. —Jordan Gorosh


A Parting Thought: The Cardinals continue to produce a blend of impact and role profiles throughout the system, with noteworthy talent at each level giving comfort that the pipeline of major-league contributors isn’t likely to dry up anytime soon.
The two bolded names are the only ones with big league experience, right?
I'm glad someone else caught that as well. I'm guessing the write-up was a copy-paste from the 2013 Top 10, which featured a ton of players that were graduating that year to the majors. Which, if that's the case, pretty [expletive] editorial job by BP for not catching that blunder.

Unless he's trying to say that 6/10 are MLB ready, which I still wouldn't agree with - I can find maybe four on that list total that fit that criteria.

Magneto2.0
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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Magneto2.0 »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Magneto2.0 wrote:The Top Ten
OF Stephen Piscotty
LHP Marco Gonzales
RHP Alexander Reyes
RHP Jack Flaherty
LHP Rob Kaminsky
OF Charlie Tilson
LHP Tim Cooney
RHP Sam Tuivailala
RHP Luke Weaver
C Carson Kelly

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Cardinals possess an abundance of young, controllable players, a collection that runs even deeper than the top 10 list above. The Birds have long been one of the premier identifiers of young assets in the game, and have churned out more first-division talent than virtually any team over the past 10 years. Quite a few names on this list have potential six (or higher) OFP ceilings, while others are primed to become regular contributors at the big-league level. The risk profile for these players is noticeably lower than most organizations, as six of the 10 names on the list have already reached the big-league level.

Yes, I’ve checked four times, and Jason Heyward is still somehow only 25. While the bat has not developed as hoped, his plus-plus defense has helped soften the blow. He still has excellent on-base ability, and sometime soon it could all click, which would make him one of the best all-around talents in the game. Injury woes aside, Michael Wacha has all of the ingredients to be a strong no. 2 starter in his peak years, playing Robin to Adam Wainwright’s Batman. When healthy, it’s reasonable to expect 200-plus innings of high-two and low-three ERAs with the peripherals to match, especially as he continues to refine his breaking ball.

Kolten Wong was hot and cold throughout the year, although his highs and lows might stabilize moving forward. His realistic role is that of a first-division second baseman, and one who can hit at the top of a lineup. Where it starts to get tricky is the Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Stephen Piscotty cluster. Rosenthal didn’t build on 2013 as many had hoped, but the upside remains one of the most effective relievers in the game, with a fastball that grades out to plus-plus at worst. Martinez is easily the hardest to rank on this list, as his future role remains up in the air. As always, the Cardinals have a bevy of rotation options, but despite logging a majority of his major-league innings out of the pen the flame-throwing Dominican could still wind up a starter long term, where he maintains top-of-the-rotation potential. —Jordan Gorosh


A Parting Thought: The Cardinals continue to produce a blend of impact and role profiles throughout the system, with noteworthy talent at each level giving comfort that the pipeline of major-league contributors isn’t likely to dry up anytime soon.
The two bolded names are the only ones with big league experience, right?

Sorry for the confusion, that analysis at the end when he said "6 of the 10 had MLB experience" he was referring to his "Top 10 that are 25 years old and under on the Cardinals" list, not the top 10 Prospects list.

Here's his Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/89 or later)

1. Jason Heyward
2. Michael Wacha
3. Kolten Wong
4. Trevor Rosenthal
5. Carlos Martinez
6. Stephen Piscotty
7. Marco Gonzales
8. Alexander Reyes
9. Jack Flaherty
10. Rob Kaminsky

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Swirls
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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Swirls »

Ohhhhhhhh okay. That makes more sense now. Thanks. :)

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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by jerbyrd25 »

phins wrote:Tilson, Cooney, Tui are too high, but I solid write-up.

No Vaughn Bryan? /snark
I was surprised by Grichuk being totally outside of the top ten altogether. He's listed here:

Factors on the Farm
Petrick, rhp
Grichuk, of
J. Wilson, 2b

jerbyrd25
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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by jerbyrd25 »

phins wrote:Tilson, Cooney, Tui are too high, but I solid write-up.

No Vaughn Bryan? /snark
Also the first comment from the article:

indianacardinal
Have to ask...particularly in light of how he was ranked last year, what are the thoughts of the current BP Prospect Staff regarding OF Vaughn Bryan, and how did he progress, or not in 2014?

Nick Faleris
BP staff

It was a net neutral developmental year for Bryan. Tools are still there, but evaluators were generally underwhelmed by the lack of in-game power (his speed did help him tally solid 2b/3b totals which buoyed his ISO) and overall feel, particularly on the bases. He's still a name to watch and retains his impact upside, but there wasn't a compelling reason to continue to push that upside in light of the limited growth overall over the past calendar year.

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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Swirls »

jerbyrd25 wrote:
phins wrote:Tilson, Cooney, Tui are too high, but I solid write-up.

No Vaughn Bryan? /snark
I was surprised by Grichuk being totally outside of the top ten altogether. He's listed here:

Factors on the Farm
Petrick, rhp
Grichuk, of
J. Wilson, 2b
I didn't think Grichuk was still eligible as a rookie.

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Re: Baseball Prospectus: Cardinals top 10 Prospects

Post by Fat Strat »

That list really tells you a lot about what BP thinks of Grichuk. Unfortunately, it also tells you something about how they feel about Luke Weaver, too.

Or maybe it just tells you that BP is baised toward higher end potential rather than a high likelihood of reaching/sticking in the majors -- see Flaherty and Reyes. (I keep forgetting about Flaherty...)

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