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I think Kozma's peak will be about a .750 OPS. I'd say he'd come in around a .700 OPS most seasons, with a few stinker .650's thrown in on occassion. Basically a free version of Brendan Ryan (once he is no longer free) or Adam Everett.

Another similar player would be Ryan Jackson, our 2009 fifth round draft pick. Scouts said his glove would play in the major leagues from the day he was drafted. He can't hit a lick (although his 2007 and 2008 were actually quite respectable offensively), but he's a future gold glover.

The thing to remember about Kozma, and it's been talked about on here before, is that he would just now be in his junior year of college. Would he be looked at differently if we were to take him this summer with our 25th overall pick? It's likely that a few years of college ball could have helped his development. He would likely go to Batavia this summer, and start next season (2011) in Palm Beach. With our front office's penchant for accelerated promotions, if he was performing well enough at Palm Beach in 2011 they may promote him to Springfield.

Ideally Kozma would spend the entire year next year in AA, and let him go to AAA next year (2011).

Either way, he'd still be farther along than if he were to be drafted this summer.

He's only a free Brendan Ryan or Adam Everett if we assume that he's going to be one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, which we cannot reasonably assume.

I like Ryan Jackson better than Kozma with the glove...Kozma really isn't even a good hitter, and he plays in a very solid offensive ballpark.

Kozma is rated exactly as he should be...as a potential utility player.

What was the consensus when Ryan was drafted? I doubt that he was considered anything more than a future utility player.

I'm not willing to write Kozma off yet. This will be a big year for him development wise. If he tanks 2010 while repeating AA, then I will be more apt to agree with you.

As it is right now though, I still have hope for the little guy.

Sure. You have hope for every single player drafted, but if you're playing percentages, you have to temper your expectations. A lot of it, for me, goes back to the fact that I thought he was an awful draft pick, regardless of Porcello or anyone else. Nothing I have seen in the minors makes it seem any different today.

If your expectations are for a .675-.700 OPS SS with pretty solid defense, then you probably have a chance to see that in the bigs one day. If it's more than that, I just don't see it.

Players can, and do, surprise though.

The Cards went for Kozma because while you hate to draft for positional need, they were looking to add someone that could stick at SS. The next player drafted that still plays SS is Justin Jackson who OPSd under .600 in High A last year (and went pick 45). Andrew Cumberland drafted at 46 just repeated A ball and put up an OPS of nearly .800.Zach Cozart just OPS'd .758 in AA (Drafted pick 79), but overall doesn't seem that any SS from that draft really is setting the world on fire.

Oh, you're totally right. It's hard to find a good SS who can actually stick there. Justin Jackson is the guy I would have taken in the second round, and I'm not sure he's better than Kozma (most likely not).

I'll be the first to admit I'm not perfect at this evaluation stuff...if I were, I wouldn't be sitting at a desk job right now.

It's the decision to draft for need that really bugged me...maybe they had him as the highest need/talent/value at that point? It is what it is now, so let's hope some of the questions for the still young Kozma get answered in a positive way this year. Repeat AA, hit the ball at .750 or higher OPS (he plays in a hitters park, in a hitters league) and things will be ok in his development.

The draft for need is usually something that teams dont do, especially early in drafts. I can see avoiding a position early in drafts (like the Cards should draft a 1B in the first round because of Albert (unless they can trade him like Wallace)) but there is something to be said for taking a SS, or CF because they are on the good side of the defensive spectrum. They can always be moved to an easier position if they get blocked or struggle with fielding. I think that is why the Cards went that route here. Of course if Kozma can't hit like a middle infielder he is useless anywhere else on the diamond.

Oh I understand how it works...you'll see teams take many college or high school SS's each and every draft because they are normally the best athletes on the diamon, and can be moved off of those positions as the need arises.

I wasn't upset they picked a certain position, I was upset because I had seen Kozma, and thought he was a good college signing for my school's rival (Wichita State), but had no thoughts of him as a big time draft prospect. Low and behold we take the kid in the first round. If you take the guy you think is the best player (combining signability into the spectrum, as Porcello was no doubt the best prospect for every team at that point), I don't mind the position, as you can make that work.

It was the taking of a lesser talent that bugged me. We reversed that somewhat at the top of the last draft (and moved back into our college right handed relievers, and high floor/ceiling college All-stars philosophy later on). Hopefully, we continue to open up the draft cupboard more and more as we move along...obviously hopefully Kozma returns something on our investment as well.