Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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robbotis
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Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by robbotis »

Well, I told you yesterday he loved Miller.
He's #9 overall.
Miller dominated the Midwest League in his first full year in pro ball, and the Cardinals have to be doing cartwheels to have landed him with the 19th overall pick in 2009.

He will pitch at 92-95 but can run the fastball up to 98 mph, and his command of the pitch has improved by leaps and bounds over where it was in high school. The biggest change for him in 2010 was his changeup, a pitch he rarely used as an amateur because he rarely needed it, but regular use and help from the Cardinals' coaches has made it a viable weapon, to the point that he held left-handed hitters in 2010 to a .194/.259/.274 line.

He still has an out-pitch curveball in the 76-80 range with good depth, but has been more of a flyball pitcher than expected despite getting good downhill plane from his delivery. He's probably two to three years away but projects as the frontline starter the Cardinals will need to replace Chris Carpenter in the long run.
Other Birds include:
Carlos Matias(Martinez) at 52
Zack Cox at 72

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/ ... spects1-25

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by Fat Strat »

Wow! Miller at #9. Didn't think he would be that high. Outstanding. Also good to hear about his change. If that's becoming a viable pitch along with the fastball and curve, then he'll move quickly.


Interesting that Matias is nearly a top 50, and I think Cox is placed about perfectly.

When was the last time we had 3 in the top 100? Colby, Garcia, and Anderson?

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by phins »

Goldstein only has one Cardinal in top-101. Has Jenkins ahead of Cox and Martinez.

Law isn't as good as Goldstein in my amateur opinion. Remember how high Law was on Boggs?

I expect Miller will be anywhere from 9-22 on most people's list I'd suspect.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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Law says Matias has better raw stuff than Shelby Miller and could leapfrog Miller on the list next year if 2011 'lives up to expectations.' That's great to hear and nice to dream on.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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phins wrote:Goldstein only has one Cardinal in top-101. Has Jenkins ahead of Cox and Martinez.

Law isn't as good as Goldstein in my amateur opinion. Remember how high Law was on Boggs?

I expect Miller will be anywhere from 9-22 on most people's list I'd suspect.
MLB.com released their list with Miller at #20


My sim team has 4 people in the top 50 with Mike Moustakas (7), Zach Britton (19), Shelby Miller (20) and Brett Lawrie (28). :D

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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themiddle54 wrote:Law says Matias has better raw stuff than Shelby Miller and could leapfrog Miller on the list next year if 2011 'lives up to expectations.' That's great to hear and nice to dream on.
If both these guys hit their ceilings, wow.
A 2013 or 2014 rotation of Waino-Miller-Garcia-Matias could be impressive.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by Fat Strat »

Law isn't as good as Goldstein in my amateur opinion. Remember how high Law was on Boggs?
If I remember right, Law had Boggs at about 99 in his top 100 when Boggs was in AAA posting an era under 3.5 and had a mid-90's fastball. I think I remember that he liked Boggs because he could be a decent starter or a high quality releiver/closer, if he could harness his control. Seems like Boggs is on his way toward becoming that high quality reliever and maybe a closer down the road. Who knows.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

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Law had Boggs #73 in 2008 and said
Boggs could pitch in the majors right now as a reliever, although the Cardinals have been developing him as a starter due to his durable frame and ability to hold his stuff through 90-plus pitches. Boggs has a plus pitch in his 93-96 mph fastball and a future-plus pitch in his sharp downer breaking ball at 82-84 mph. His fastball command, especially to his glove side, needs work and may just result from a little herky-jerky movement early in his delivery. More troubling is that for some reason he has struggled to miss bats despite his solid stuff, which would portend a move to the bullpen long term unless he finds a way to finish hitters off.
Had he known the future of Boggs would be in the 'pen, I doubt he'd have ranked him as high, and I'd guess it's why Boggs dropped off Law's list in '09 even though technically Boggs was still a prospect. Law is typically reluctant to put a relief pitcher too high on his list, since good RH relief arms are kinda dime/dozen in the minors.
A 2013 or 2014 rotation of Waino-Miller-Garcia-Matias could be impressive.
Definitely, toss in Lynn or Jenkins if they pan out well, and I'd be pretty happy. If they all pan out. I always keep in mind a Joe Sheehan quote: " 'spectacular pitching prospect' is an oxymoron."

From Law today on sleeper prospects to watch for in 2011:
Right-hander Tyrell Jenkins was a three-sport star in high school who turned down a football scholarship to Baylor. He's an outstanding athlete who has hit 96 mph and has a chance for four pitches.
Last edited by themiddle54 on January 28 11, 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by phins »

themiddle54 wrote:Law says Matias has better raw stuff than Shelby Miller and could leapfrog Miller on the list next year if 2011 'lives up to expectations.' That's great to hear and nice to dream on.
I haven't seen Martinez, so it's hard for me to be definitive in this particular case, but often times we fall for this better "stuff" regiment, when really they mean "better fastball in one to three inning spurts."

Stuff includes secondary offerings, and right now Miller has a much better curveball, and a developing changeup. He also has a better plane on his fastball (though I'd honestly like to see better ground ball rates out of Miller). Miller has an awesome pitchers frame, and projection. Though I don't have the data in front of me, I also believe they are the same age.

It would take quite a bit for Martinez to pass Miller as a prospect, but hey, as Cards fans we should all hope he does because that would mean he had a monster season stateside.

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Re: Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

Post by phins »

Fat Strat wrote:
Law isn't as good as Goldstein in my amateur opinion. Remember how high Law was on Boggs?
If I remember right, Law had Boggs at about 99 in his top 100 when Boggs was in AAA posting an era under 3.5 and had a mid-90's fastball. I think I remember that he liked Boggs because he could be a decent starter or a high quality releiver/closer, if he could harness his control. Seems like Boggs is on his way toward becoming that high quality reliever and maybe a closer down the road. Who knows.
He's on his way to being a decent reliever. I've never been overly high on Boggs personally.

I believe he was high on Ottavino as well, a player I have numerous posts about saying he won't make it.

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