Cards top-20 prospects in my view

[phins]

My wife's watching the Emmy's, and the big league club is depressing, so I thought this might be as good a time as any to offer up some thoughts about the minors, and some movement we've had in the system.

It's been a year of "step forward" for a few guys in the system (Scott Gorgen, Raniel Rosario, Bryan Martinez, Matt Carpenter, Thomas Pham, Oscar Taveras), and a year of regression for a few players within the Cards system (Daryl Jones, Lance Lynn, Robert Stock among others). Other players have kind of just moved forward as normal, and continued to develop within the system. As many of you have read, I don't really get excited about a kid until they reach the States (for International players), or until they start to do things at Palm Beach. The majority of players I see, I see from Springfield with the Springfield Cardinals. So most of my evaluations for younger players than that, comes from television, scouting videos, and what I read from Luhnow etc.
When evaluating a hitter, it's tough to get a real gauge for them just off a stats page, as I can't see their athleticism, bat speed, and projection. I'm big on projection, and because of that, I tend to make players who are less "toolsy" prove it at the AA level before getting excited (Matt Carpenter or Aaron Luna types). With pitchers, I want to see it at an age appropriate level, and I want to see strikeouts galore, and if they don't strike out a ton, a heavy GO/AO ratio (both is ideal).
If I were going to put together a top-20 list of players for our system, I'd tend to lean more towards the higher ceiling player, and try not to forget how valuable a reliever can be to a medium budget team such as the Cards. Luckily, the Cards have those in spades.

1. Shelby Miller- RHP- Age 19 (10-10-1990).
7-5, 3.71 ERA, 99.1 IP, 92 H, 6 HR, 32 BB, 132 K, .97 GO/AO.
92-96 mph fastball, that is easy from an athletic motion, with smooth arm action, and great follow through. Has a good curveball that he will learn to control, and throw where he wants it to go, and with the velocity he wants, as he furthers his development. I'd honestly like to see his GO/AO percentage improve, but that is a nitpick. Great upside, and could be a future ace if he hits projections.

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2. Zach Cox- 3B- Age 21 (5-9-1989).
6-15, 1 BB, 3 K, .937 OPS.
One of the best pure hitters available in the draft this year, Cox signed for 3.2 million on signing day, and instantly becomes the Cards' top hitting prospect. His bat is quick and stays in the hitting zone for a very long time. He can take the ball the other way with the best of them, and has a quick load that allows him to stay back on the breaking ball. Because of this, I expect him to hit for average, and reach the major leagues quickly. However, it also causes me to wonder if he'll hit for much power, and if his ceiling is maxed as a good player, rather than a star. His glove profiles as solid, rather than elite, and his large frame makes one wonder if he'll grow out of the position. He was worth the risk, and should find himself with the big club very soon.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0lkGOcGwVM?fs][/youtube]

3. Carlos Matias- RHP- Age 18 (9-2-90)
3-2, 0.76 ERA, 59 IP, 28 H, 14 BB, 78 K, 1.14 GO/AO.
Elite arm, with a fastball that reaches upper 90's from an easy arm motion (though a grainy video is all that I've seen), Matias certainly looks the part from the tools standpoint. Some question his ability to remain a starter due to his frame (6', 165), he is the best arm in the system, and perhaps a top-5 arm in all of minor league baseball. Ranking him this high breaks my own rule of not believing until they reach the states, but this speaks to his upside, and the lack of exciting prospects in the Cards' system overall. I've read that his Visa troubles should be cleared up, and he'll come to the States next year ready to show his stuff as legit. Probably a late inning reliever, but will be given a chance to stay a #2 starter.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGwTuVuhBII?fs][/youtube]

4. Lance Lynn- RHP- Age 23 (5-12-87)
12-9, 4.76 ERA, 153 IP, 153 H, 19 HR, 57 BB, 123 K, 1.01 GO/AO.
Big bodied starting pitcher who profiles as a back of the rotation innings eater. Lynn looks the part, but lacks the stuff to be more than a #4/5 starter in the bigs. The Cards have always liked his competitiveness and mound demeanor, but the results need to match as well. I place him this high because he has reached AAA, and should be given a look in camp next year for a chance at the rotation. Sits at 88-91 with a sinking fastball, and flashes a decent slider and changeup. Lynn is more of a "sum of his parts" pitcher, rather than a solid tools pitcher. I've seen him live no less than a dozen times, and I have to think he'll be Kevin Millwood lite.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7OlOoWtX_s?fs][/youtube]

5. Tyrell Jenkins- RHP- Age 18- (7-20-1982)
1 IP, 2 K, 2.00 GO/AO.
Jenkins has been well-chronicled around here since he was picked in the supplemental first round of this draft. He's tall, lanky, and is projectible, with a loose athletic body (6-4, 180). He has a great fastball already (91-93), and projects to fill out and add some velocity as he matures. His breaking stuff is said to be coming along great, and has a fantastic ceiling. He also hasn't played much baseball, and most of his prospect ranking is based on future projection. Many a pitcher has not advanced as projected, and Jenkins is a long way from the big leagues. Could be our slowest moving prospect on any prospect list.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bucL0-7Sh2c?fs][/youtube]

6. Matt Carpenter- 3B- Age 24- (11-26-1985)
149 H, 49 xbase hits, 89 BB/94 SO, 10 SB/3 CS, .317/.429/.487/.916
Again, I go away from my own evaluation methods to put Carpenter a little higher than expected based on tools. Carpenter is a late bloomer, who was a Senior sign from TCU. Early on his career, he battled weight problems, and generally didn't have the work ethic to succeed. After some tough love from his coaches, he turned his career around and worked hard. After he saw the results, he is not reputed as one of the hardest workers on his AA team by his coaches. You'd like to see a little more isolated power, especially given the park he plays in, but he is a hard-nosed player who controls the strike zone. I see him as more of a two hole type hitter, who will get on base, and do the little things to help a team win. He's an older prospect with a solid hit tool, who could conceivably compete for the starting job on the big club by next season. Surprisingly athletic, this old school player who doesn't wear batting gloves, can play a reasonable 3B (similar to a Freese level), and could move to the OF if needed.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWqMPOC25mk?fs][/youtube]

7. Seth Blair- RHP- Age 21- (3-3-1989)
Has not pitched professionally.
Great arm, with a nice smooth action. Is more of a 3/4 arm angle guy, and generates good sink when he stays on top of the ball. There is some concern with his size (6-2, 190), but I think he'll remain a starter. Works at 90-93 comfortably, and can get it up to 95 on occasion. Has a solid curveball, which he'll throw hard and harder. It's good when he's fresh, but he can leave it high when he's tired. Command is an issue, and is the one thing that keeps him from being higher on this list. Profiles as a #3/4 starter depending on if everything works out for him. Will be a solid innings type guy, who could even turn out better if he somehow cleans up his control, and improves his breaking ball consistency. I'm not as high on him as some, so this lofty ranking is again an indictment of our system over the player himself being a great prospect.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LYwuLAt_DQ?fs][/youtube]

8. Eduardo Sanchez- RHP- Age 21- (2-16-1989)
1-1, 2.63 ERA, 48 IP, 37 H, 19 BB/50 K, 1.56 GO/AO (two levels)
Eduardo sits in the upper 90's with his fastball, and has a swing and miss slider. He's a two pitch pitcher, who is exclusively a relief pitching prospect. He has late life on his fastball as well, which makes hard contact tougher for the hitter. He has exhibited solid control at almost every level he has pitched at, and continued his success at the current AAA level. He is ready for the big club now, but the team is apparently waiting for September call-ups, to give him a chance. He is on the small side (5-11, 155), but carries a big arm. He is the first of the Valenzuela prospects to get their shot (when it finally comes), and has a bright future. I've seen him live, and he's better than Salas, and has loads more control than Samuel.

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9. Dan Descalso- 2B- Age 24- (10-19-86)
125 H, 42 Xbase hits, 46 BB/45 SO, 7 SB/4 CS, .289/.360/.431/.790
Another player that makes the list more due to a dearth of prospects, rather than being a player with star potential. Descalso is a steady player who controls the strike zone. Average tools across the board, and won't do anything Earth shattering. He hits from the left side, and has a line drive swing that does stay in the zone a reasonably long time. He hits in a league where .790 OPS's grow on trees, and I could be overvaluing him even this high. Should compete for a spot with the big club next year, but could toil as a minor leaguer his whole career. He lacks any standout tool, including a glove, and hasn't done much to force his way onto the big club. His pitch recognition makes him a better prospect than former, similarly tooled teammate Jarrett Hoffapuir.

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10. Oscar Taveras- OF- Age 18- (6-19-82)
67 H, 24 Xbase hits, 12 BB/41 SO, 8 SB/5 CS, .322/.363/.529/.892
This toolsy, lefty swinger has taken a major step forward with his move to the states. Signed out of the Dominican Republic when he was 16 years old, he has immense power potential, and looks to have a bright future with the Cardinals. He has a great arm, can play left or right field, but probably profiles best as a LF with plus athleticism and the frame to add more weight. Currently at 6-2, 180, he will hit for even more power once he fills out his frame. Like most young hitters, he needs to learn to manipulate the strike zone better, but has taken strides in that regard this year. One of the younger players in the Appalachian League, Taveras has surpassed expectations, after a great debut last season in the DSL. Will be a surprise pick for many on here, but I thought about putting him #7, as I like how his bat profiles moving forward, in a system barren of impact bats. The swing is long, but is whippy with a lot of life, and extremely quick wrists. Also, he can get out of the box and move down the line really well.

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11. Scott Gorgen- RHP- Age 23- (1-27-1987)
5-1, 1.34 ERA, 47 IP, 34 H, 4 HR, 17 BB/42 K, 0.98 GO/AO.
The breakthrough pitcher for the Cardinals system this year. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter, and uses a plus plus changeup to get hitters out. Has a bit of a bad body, and is short. At 5-10, 190 (he looks heavier), he also has to buck the odds as a short starting pitching prospect from the right side. Drop and drive pitcher, with a powerful leg kick and push. Has an 88-92 sinker, and fits well with the Cards profile of minor league drafting (college All-Star with results). He had an elbow injury that I initially was told was thought to be a serious injury, he has been activated and is pitching again. Good news for a team in need of back end pitching prospects for next year. Gorgen has a great mound presence, and gets swings and misses with his changeup. He'll be a little better than a PJ Walters type because he has more on his fastball. I'm torn on Gorgen at the moment, but I've seen him live and in person several times, and every time I've been impressed. Is in a hitters league, getting big time results, and will be given a shot with the Lance Lynn's to prove he belongs with the team next year. I don't have them ranked this way, but I probably like him more than Lance Lynn.

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12. Bryan Martinez- RHP- Age 19- (3-1-1991)
1-4, 1.95 ERA, 37 IP, 25 H, 1 HR, 16 BB/31 K, 2.36 GO/AO (Rookie GCL).
Full disclosure, I've never seen him pitch, but he is a spreadsheet monster with everything you look for in a young pitching prospect. He misses enough bats, he gets gobs of ground balls, and he has carried over his performance to the States. This kid has taken a huge step forward on prospect ranking lists, and will look to continue that momentum with a full season club next year. He was absolutely dominant in the DSL, and maybe even had better numbers than Matias. Unlike Matias, there is no question he's a starting pitcher, and someone that the org. is very excited with. Recently, Luhnow personally said that he works 91-93 with his sinking fastball, and has a good slider, and a curveball he uses on lefties mainly. He is 6-3, 175 lbs and will look to add even more velocity as he fills out and matures. He fits the team profile for pitching perfectly, and is someone to be excited about. From what I've seen, he seems to be another kid with more of a 3/4 arm slot, and is lanky with a "whippy" arm action.
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/990764.html

13. Daryl Jones- OF- Age 23- (6-25-1987)
102 H, 29 Xbase hits, 48 BB/90 SO, 15 SB/8 CS, .239/.331/.354/.685.
"DJ Tools" as he so often has been called throughout his career, has taken a large step back this year. He has struggled with injuries in recent years, and his breakout campaign of 2008 seems more and more like it might be the exception rather than the rule. If there is one thing to look towards as a positive is the almost .100 point difference between his average and on-base percentage. That is generally a positive sign of a solid hitter. Right now though, in a hitters league, he is just not getting it done. Still not translating his impressive speed onto the base paths, Jones is also still a work in progress in the OF. If he were to be projected right now, he probably would be profiled as a below average CF'er, who is limited to LF due to a poor arm, and instincts on balls in the air. After a season high game hitting streak that ended on Aug. 23, he has gone 1-19, so his roller coaster career is continuing.

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14. Audry Perez- C- Age 22- (12-23-1988)
47 H, 14 Xbase hits, 9 BB/28 SO, 2 SB/2 CS, .329/.379/.469/.847
Before we get too worked up over his age, remember that catchers take longer than other prospects to develop. Perez first caught wind on prospect lists when Keith Law listed him as a top-10 prospect for the team. Honestly, I can't say that was a bad call at the time. A solid receiver with quick feet, and a strong throwing arm, Perez is making strides towards moving up the ladder, and putting himself on the prospect map. You'd like to see the plate discipline improve some, but everything else has been there so far for the Dominican Republic signee.

15. Joe Kelly- RHP- Age 22- (6-9-1988)
6-8, 4.13 ERA, 98 IP, 92 H, 3 HR, 43 BB/85 K, 3.11 GO/AO.
With Kelly, it is all about a big time fastball that reaches upper 90's, and a fantastic groundball rate. He walks too many guys, and is a bit hittable, but I think the hittable issue will be helped by better defense's as he moves up. The walks will determine what he becomes. I think he's a reliever long term, with an explosive fastball, maybe as good as anyone playing in the States for the Cards, and a solid changeup, he has the look of a fairly late innings reliever if he cuts down on the walks. He uses a curve to keep lefties off balance, but only 5-6 times a game, and is more of a "show" pitch. As a starter though, he's a bit undersized at 6-1, 165 and has a max effort delivery, he looks to profile as a #4 or 5 type, who will give some innings, and get gobs of ground balls. Sounds like a Cardinals type pitcher to me.

16. Jordan Swagerty- RHP- Age 21- (7-14-1989)
Has not pitched professionally.
The closer for Arizona State with the nasty hook, and solid velocity will look to put himself on the prospect map as we move forward. Even though he was in the bullpen for his college career, the Cards are said to be giving him a look in the starting rotation, ala Joe Kelly. The two prospects are interchangeable at this juncture. I think he's a reliever ultimately, as he some effort in his delivery, but will move quickly once put back in the bullpen. He works at 92-94 mph with his fastball out of the bullpen and has a great curveball he can use to keep lefties off balance. I like his stuff, and even though a bit skinny at 6-2, 175, he could even see an uptick of a mph or two on his fastball as he fills out. This could end up being far too low for him.

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17. Rainel Rosario- Age 21- (3-29-1989)
55 H, 24 Xbase hits, 32 BB/55 SO, 3 SB/3 CS, .297/.404/.519/.923.
I decided to go with a toolsy OF'er who is a little old for his level with this spot. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, it has taken him some time to translate his athleticism and plus raw power to the minors. This year, his power has emerged, and the Cards have promoted him aggressively. Still, he's a little old even for the level he's at now, and needs to continue to show the impressive power and plate discipline to keep moving up. Started at Batavia and put up a solid .321/.386/.449/.835 line, he has exploded at Quad Cities with a line of .280/.415/.570/.985 in more at bats. Athletic, stocky build at 6', 190, and plus power from the right side, he also sports the arm for RF. The Dominican camps are starting to produce players who are making their way to the States, and that has me excited. Probably 60 power, 55 hit, 55 run, 60 throw on the scales.

18. Cody Stanley- C- Age 21- (12-21-1988)
67 H, 22 Xbase hits, 21 BB/30 SO, 8 SB/1 CS, .324/.384/502/.886.
4th rounder in this year's draft has solid average tools across the board, but doesn't do anything spectacular. I assume he would have been moved up to Batavia already, if it weren't for Audry Perez needing work at that level. Limited pop, solid athleticism, good hands, and a good arm, he profiles as a good backup catcher at the major league level. His value is enhanced by being a left-handed hitting catcher with solid speed. I like this kid quite a bit from everything I've read and seen of his swing.

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19. Pete Kozma- SS- Age 22- (4-11-1988)
118 H, 42 Xbase hits, 53 BB/106 SO, 13 SB/2 CS, .248/.323/.396/.719.
Former first rounder has disappointed for the most part in his career. The Texas League is a hitters league, and a .719 OPS there is not a great line. He also has committed way too many errors, and seems to lose focus with the glove. On the plus side, he does flash above average athleticism, hands, range, and a strong arm. He is solid on the bases, and has some pop this year, as evidenced by 42 extra base hits. He profiles as a big leaguer, which is why he stays on my list, and will probably carve out a utility role for himself if he keeps his focus on defense. Still age appropriate, next year will be a big year for his career.

20. Roberto De La Cruz- 3B- Age 19- (11-10-1991)
39 H, 15 Xbase hits, 7 BB/46 SO, 0 SB, 2 CS, .241/.291/.432/.724.
I could have went several directions here, with Adam Reifer, or Sam Tuivalala, Cesar Valera or a few bullpen type arms, I even thought of John Gast in order to have a lefty arm, but I went with the bonus baby from the Dominican Republic with huge power potential at 3B. The year has been somewhat disappointing for Roberto, as he is repeating the GCL level, but he has gotten better as the summer has gone on, and he'll need a lot of time to put it all together. He has shown great isolated power, and has a great throwing arm and athleticism at 3B. He already stands 6-2, 180 at 19 years old, and should fill out to the 210 range and be a stocky 3B'man with plus power. A righty swinger without a discernable split difference in a small sample size (has actually hit righties a little better this year), he has starter potential down the road.

Well, that's it. That's my list. There are a few surprises, and as you can see, the Cardinals system is pretty barren at the top IMHO, but does have some solid guys moving through the lines, and will be able to fill out the back of a rotation, bullpen, and OF with their upper level guys currently, while hoping for some of their high end guys to continue to improve and make their way to the big club in a few years. This took a lot longer than I expected it to, but I wanted to have accurate information to have a reference to check back on later and see how they progress, and how my list looks compared to others.

[phins]

...

[go birds]

lol this destroys my thread.

Good work.

Lynn doesn't deserve to be in the top 10 though imo. Are you ranking him just because he's close to the majors?

That's my only disagreement with your list.

[phins]

lol this destroys my thread.

Good work.

Lynn doesn't deserve to be in the top 10 though imo. Are you ranking him just because he's close to the majors?

That's my only disagreement with your list.

The proximity to the majors point really helps his favor, yes. He's taken a real step bak this year, but he really is what still what I've always thought he was. Kevin Millwood.

That does have a lot of value to a team like the Cardinals, and that's why I have him so high, because I know he's a starter, he's going to remain a starter, and he's going to make the major leagues almost guaranteed. As we've seen on the open market, there is a lot of value to that. It's entirely possible I'm placing too much emphasis on that, but it's just how the list fell for me.

If there's one thing I'd change, I'd probably put Adron Chambers in there somewhere. He has legit 75 speed, and that is something lacking with the big club. He profiles as a 4th OF'er, but there is value in that, especially with his speed.

[Swirls]

Good list overall, phin. One nitpicky thing - Descalso is still only 23, not 24 (the DOB is right, you just have his age wrong).

Your list jives pretty well with my back of the envelope list, although like yourself I don't tend to put much stock into low minor stats... Between SSS, defense/field conditions, park factors, etc., it can be really hard to gauge a player's "success" at levels such as Jupiter, Johnson City, Batavia, or even QC.

Much like we had last year, you really have a few "top prospects" which are no doubters - and I don't think anyone (Callis, Goldstein, Law, Future Redbirds, VEB, etc.) will question the order in which those top three are ranked (Miller, Cox, Matias). Well, maybe Cards Talk, but they also voted for David Freese as the top prospect rather than Shelby Miller... After those top prospects, there is a lot of C-grade talent and pretty much all of the ranked prospects are interchangeable. #20 is really about as good of a prospect as #15, as is #10.

Mostly, that's still a testament to the "meh" quality of our farm system. It's definitely better with Cox and Matias, but adding Wilson definitely would have helped buck that trend. It also would have helped if some of our favorite prospects hadn't [expletive] the bed this season. If we can have a draft in 2011 similar to ours this year (and the 2011 draft is absolutely loaded) with a good year signing out in Latin America, it will help things as well.

Oh well, here's how my list would shake out:

1. Shelby Miller
2. Zach Cox
3. Carlos Matias
4. Matt Carpenter
5. Lance Lynn
6. Tyrell Jenkins
7. Eduardo Sanchez
8. Joe Kelly
9. Daniel Descalso
10. Bryan Anderson
11. Seth Blair
12. Tommy Pham
13. Oscar Taveras
14. Virgil Hill
15. Scott Gorgen
16. Adam Riefer
17. Bryan Martinez
18. Daryl Jones
19. Roberto de la Cruz
20. Hector Hernandez


I'm sure I'm forgetting people, so I may tweak the list as I think of others and whatnot. I think Bryan Anderson put himself back on the prospect map this year (OPS just under .800 at AAA), and people tend to forget that he's still only 23. He's just been a "top prospect" since 2005, so people think he's been around forever. It didn't help (or hurt, depending how you look at it) that he was an everyday AAA player as a 21 year old. He was injured for a lot of last year, which sapped his power, but this year he has doubled his best HR season.

Also, I added Tommy Pham, because it looks like he also has finally figured some things out. After teasing us to death during ST, he completely [expletive] the bed for the first month of the season at A+. He then turned it up a bit, and has been on complete fire since getting promoted to AA earlier this summer (current line at Springfield is .339/.429/.537/.966 in 121 PA). In retrospect, #12 may be a little high for him, but I really don't feel like shuffling the numbers around.

Hernandez and Hill are kind of favorite picks of mine from last year. Hill is definitely very, very intriguing.

EDIT: I knew there were a few other GCL players that have peaked my interest this year, but I think are still a year or two away from wowing me. Javier Avendano, Manuel De La Cruz, and Anthony Garcia, etc. Rainel Rosario is another one who I would consider adding, but don't really know enough about him to know where to place him.

EDIT #2: Removed Blair^2 to replace with Riefer, who I'm also quite high on as a late inning reliever.

[phins]

I had Pham in my guys taking a huge step forward. I've seen him live, and his athleticism leaps out at you. He's a major league athlete, and I have no problem with him being on the list.

Yeah, I'd probably take Cody Stanley off, and put Anderson in that spot. I'm kind of meh on him, but I think that might be a case of prospect fatigue, and I'm a little more excited with a few of the toolsy Dominican players.

You must really like Seth Blair, you listed him twice.

If you watch his video, Taveras reminds me of a lefty swinging Soriano. Hopefully he is better with the glove obviously, but that's not a bad major leaguer to have.

[vinsanity]

Great info phin.

[Michael]

This thread is amazing. Thank you.

[jim]

I love love love that shot of Miller. That angle is as close to seeing what it's like sitting in the batters box as you can get without actually being there.

btw- Miller has really change his first movement with his left leg. He really steps back now behind the mound as opposed to just that little stutter step.

[phins]

I love love love that shot of Miller. That angle is as close to seeing what it's like sitting in the batters box as you can get without actually being there.

btw- Miller has really change his first movement with his left leg. He really steps back now behind the mound as opposed to just that little stutter step.

Thanks for that tip. I remember seeing him in the Futures Game, and you're right on.