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PostPosted: March 12 12, 8:13 pm 
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So is it a good sign that our #30 guy (Freeman) probably has a decent shot at pitching in MLB, albeit due mostly to his leftiness?


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PostPosted: March 13 12, 8:29 pm 
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phins wrote:
The 20-80 scale is based on a normal distribution, and each number up is standard deviations from the mean with a 50 being the mean. So, a 60 is one standard deviation above the mean for that tool, and a 70 being two, etc. etc. where 96% (some say 95%) of all players fall within two standard deviations from the mean.

Harper's power is an 80, so it's in that 4% of players or better. Billy Hamilton is an 80 speed. Ichiro an 80 hit tool. You get the idea.

It's why a player who is all 50's is actually a pretty solid player, and giving a guy a 60 is honestly a solid tool. Anything more is very good.


Thanks. That makes sense to me. To arrive at a single number, like a 60 for Taveras, do they just average out all of his ratings on various tools? Are any weighted more than others? How do they boil it down to one number?


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PostPosted: March 15 12, 10:39 am 
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I don't know how James came up with those figures but as far as scouting...

Hit
Power
Run
Field
Arm

Add those 5 up and then divide by 5-which if they added up 300 would give you that 60-OFP.

Our organization has different sub-catagories for each of those.

Hit consists of both bat speed and rhythm
Power consists or raw and type of power
Run consists of 60 yd dash and home to 1st
Field is hands and range
Arm is accuracy and angles.

Make-up and signability are factored separately yet factored significantly.


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PostPosted: March 15 12, 12:11 pm 
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MrCrowesGarden wrote:
go birds wrote:
I assume the risk factor is injury risk?

Edit: I get the impression that is is not related to injury. what is the risk factor?


I think it's like how hockey's future grades prospects. They give them a grade of 1 to 10 based on how high their potential is, and a grade of A to F on how likely it is they'll reach that full potential. So, someone with a grade of a 10.0 D has all the tools necessary to be the next Albert Pujols but has a long way to go to get there, while someone with a grade of a 7.5 A might max out as Yadier Molina, but he's all but assured to do so.


It's like that but injury is part of it too. A pitcher experiencing shoulder issues in his career is going to have more risk attached. I don't have the book with me or else I'd just verbatim write what they had. But largely it's the variability left in their projections - guys straight out of HS are going to have more than a guy that has climbed the latter and already has some MLB experience.


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PostPosted: March 15 12, 12:30 pm 
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btw I really don't think any scouts are thinking about standard deviations. A 50 is a solid average MLB tool. 80's are exceptionally rare - Chapman's fastball would grade out as an 80 and Mike Trout's running is probably an honest 80. Bryce Harper's power rates out at an 80. So that kind of skill that is just off the chart. A player that averaged out at a 50 is a very solid player, the word "average" doesn't seem to really accurately describe that player. You just have to remember who you are comparing him against - other MLB players.

I'm just throwing numbers out there without too much thought, but if I were going to rate Molina I would give him:

Hitting: 50
Power: 50
Fielding: 60
Arm : 70
Speed: 25

The thing to take from that is 60/70 ratings on his defense = gold glove. I might be cheating him on his arm - he might be more of a 75. Pudge was close to an 80 in his prime.


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PostPosted: March 15 12, 7:45 pm 
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jim wrote:
btw I really don't think any scouts are thinking about standard deviations. A 50 is a solid average MLB tool. 80's are exceptionally rare - Chapman's fastball would grade out as an 80 and Mike Trout's running is probably an honest 80. Bryce Harper's power rates out at an 80. So that kind of skill that is just off the chart. A player that averaged out at a 50 is a very solid player, the word "average" doesn't seem to really accurately describe that player. You just have to remember who you are comparing him against - other MLB players.

I'm just throwing numbers out there without too much thought, but if I were going to rate Molina I would give him:

Hitting: 50
Power: 50
Fielding: 60
Arm : 70
Speed: 25

The thing to take from that is 60/70 ratings on his defense = gold glove. I might be cheating him on his arm - he might be more of a 75. Pudge was close to an 80 in his prime.


No, they're not, but that'd what the 20-80 scale is based on...they're doing it and just not knowing it. Math can be fun.


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PostPosted: March 22 12, 9:50 am 
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Someone asked about the risk factors, here is the definition from BA:

Safe: Has shown realistic ceiling in big leagues; ready to contribute in 2012.
Low: Likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain big league career barring injury.
Medium: Still some work to do to turn tools into major league-caliber skills.
High: Most draft picks in their first season, players with plenty of projection left.
Extreme: Teenagers in rookie ball or players with significant injury histories.


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