Fat Strat wrote:
Too early to be too in on the guys right now. If Pierce Johnson is healthy (has a forearm issue right now), he'd be a guy around the area we'll be drafting. He's a right hander out of Missouri State who has a great sinking fastball, throws 92-94, has a great curveball and a decent changeup and will be ranked in that 20 area if healthy.
The guys FR has us looking at are not overwhelming to me. This draft is not great at this point, with college bats being beyond bad right now. Nick Fontana is basically Ryan Jackson with better makeup. He will move pretty quickly and is ready defensively already.
Still lots of time, and the high school kids especially will rise. Would love it if Lucas Giolito somehow fell to us. We could pool some of our money for other picks and take Giolito. A guy like Johnson would sign for slot and then maybe a few easy sign guys to make up for a little bit over slot going to Giolito (5% of pool I believe is the max).
That Johnson kid seems right up our alley. Sinking fastball + a curve + a change ... that's early Adam Wainwright. Probably not that big of a curve, though. Still, you can get a lot of mileage out of a pitcher like that. It seems to me, and I have no stats to back this up, that if you have a sinking fastball in the low to mid 90's, decent command, and at least one other pitch, your odds of reaching and sticking at the majors in some role are really high.
At time of his injury, he led the NCAA in strikeouts as well, so he's not just a pitch to contact guy. Needs to hone his command, and his velocity is not overwhelming, along with the arm injury are what keep him from elite draft status.
Like I say though, it's April, so lots of things will change between now and the draft. High school kids will visit the showcases and work out for teams later on and those kids can swing winldly based on results there.