GatewayRedbirds.com

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-m ... -prospects

Give it a read. I haven't read it yet, so I'll comment later if there's anything noteworthy.

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Everyone should still read the thread so they get their clicks and their just due for their work, but here's their list:

20: Boone Whiting
19: Jordan Swagerty
18: Ryan Jackson
17: John Gast
16: Starlin Rodriguez
15: Stephen Piscotty
14: Maikel Cleto
13: Carson Kelly
12: Seth Maness
11: Greg Garcia
10: Anthony Garcia
09: Tyrell Jenkins
08: Tyler Lyons
07: Matt Adams
06: Michael Wacha
05: Kolten Wong
04: Carlos Martinez
03: Trevor Rosenthal
02: Shelby Miller
01: Oscar Tavares

It just "feels" like they look at a spreadsheet and project from there rather than actually looking at the tools of the players and projecting them forward to the major leagues. Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and Starlin Rodriguez are wildly different rankings than my own. Though we do agree on the top-5. My list:

21: Greg Garcia
20: Anthony Garcia
19: CJ McElroy
18: Ryan Jackson
17: James Ramsey
16: Maikel Cleto
15: Charlie Tilson
14: Patrick Wisdom
13: Victor DeLeon
12: John Gast
11: Jordan Swagerty
10: Stephen Piscotty
09: Carson Kelly
08: Matt Adams
07: Tyrell Jenkins
06: Kolten Wong
05: Michael Wacha
04: Carlos Martinez
03: Trevor Rosenthal
02: Shelby Miller
01: Oscar Tavares

What's the story with Tyler Lyons? I can't say I've even heard of him, but you look at his stats and they're awfully impressive. ERA is weak, but the K/BB ratio is impressive.

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Yeah, a couple sleeper pitching prospects there in the top 15 that I knew very little about.
That top 5, heck top 10, is darn good. A lot to like.
I really can't see how Matt Adams doesn't have good trade value. I mean he sure looks like a good hitter... Just blocked here.

Tip: the club will tell you who they feel are prospects by who they invite to camps, spring training etc. You can see the young prospects they truly like by their early invites to the early camp last year and the spring invites just to be around pro camps.

As for Tyler Lyons, he isn't a real prospect. He's a tall lefty without a real plus pitch. He's also older. He's a depth guy, but if he keeps succeeding, he keeps himself on the radar. Plenty of guys have made it w/o being a top prospect. He certainly isn't a top-20 guy for me.

Maness is a better prospect, but isn't a top-20 guy for me either.

To be a real prospect, you need tools. Plain and simple.

Adams is a bat only 1B prospect. They have the lowest trade value of any prospect because they have nowhere else to go. When you add poor glove, base running, bad body as well, you get a limited return for those guys. Add that he doesn't walk and you'd probably be surprised at how teams don't have a guy similar to this.

I like Adams, but you need the right team to match up in a trade for a guy like him. That's just the way it is for bat only 1B prospects.

We've talked about Maness here some. From the way you and others have described him, I would not have him in a prospects list either.

Now, Lyons... Maness had an unbelievable 11.20 K/BB ratio. Wow, that's impressive. Too bad he can't miss a bat to save his life. Lyons, between AA and AAA had a 3.86 K/BB ratio (4.94 at AAA) and a 9.1 K/9 at AAA. He's missing bats while also limiting his BB's. He's got something that can get people out. He is an older player, but he also climbed all the way to AAA and was drafted in '10. So, he's not an older player who stalled out. He's advanced as quickly as a 9th round draftee can probably advance.

I can see where the guys at VEB find him intriguing. I'm intrigued. He might not have tools, but he's doing something to miss bats (while also doing something to get hit pretty hard). I would like to know more about him. Can he get lefties out? We need depth lefties in the system.

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It's funny to think of a guy with a k/bb ratio over 11 not being able to miss bats.

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I'm wrong on this stuff quite a bit...you almost have to be (if you're not you're probably not saying much), so it's quite possible both Maness and Lyons will prove to make me look foolish in the end- Allen Craig did, I had him as a tweener with not enough bat for 1B. Whoops.

Lyons will be an arm who fills in depth gaps for me.

Maness will eventually get hit by guys who lay off the few inches off the plate and then exploit the mistakes. As a basis for foundation of pitching, I like velocity and ground balls because it gives you a margin for error. Maness has little.

I think I get what you were saying wasn't attacking anything anyone wrote Luke, it just gave me a good starting point to make myself more clear. We aren't saying these guys can't be major leaguers, we're simply trying to compile a list of the order of guys we'd take when balancing major league ability and chances of getting there.

Well, maybe it's too much to say that Maness can't miss bats (and I was the one who said that), but he's not fooling anyone either. His K/9 rate last year was just 5.9. Not great at all. His stats and his minor league attention remind me of Brad Thompson, except that Thompson actually K'ed more guys (and walked more, too). I think you can pick at corners against major leaguers, but without an out pitch or good velocity, you're just not going to last very long.

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