Re: Misc. Minor League Ramblings
Posted: February 10 15, 8:30 pm
i bet $10,000
A Message Board Dedicated to Discussing St. Louis Cardinals Baseball!
https://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/
https://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=52649
Of the batch of highly-touted SS prospects, not all have the bat to move to a corner spot and play at a high level once their bodies fill out and they mature. Machado has a 111 wRC+ and gets most of his value on D. If Machado loses his quick-twitch defensive ability as he ages he's a league-average player if the bat does not come along. Bogaerts has an 83 wRC+ and no value. Profar, still a pup, has a 74 wRC+ and is negative fWAR. If you're gonna cherry-pick the SS prospects who moved to corners and had success, we need to also acknowledge the toolsy SS prospects who busted or were league-average or below despite big prospect hype*, and the corner bats who got no prospect love and turned out pretty awesome.** Part of the reason for this is exactly what I'm saying: the people ranking Donaldson the SS prospect or Cabrera the SS prospect (he peaked at 38 as a SS on the BA list then was ranked 12 as a 3B) didn't like them as SSs because they didn't project to stick at the spot like the toolsy no-hit guys with the sexy quick-twitch D. They overlooked what Donaldson and Cabrera can do--which provides more value at the MLB level--in favor of ranking other guys whose skill sets don't provide that much value.haltz wrote:I haven't read this whole argument, but Cabrera was a SS in the low minors, Donaldson was a catcher and Gordon put up +27 on defense last year. MiLB SSs are MLB 3B and CF turn into RF etc. You can end up without athleticism, but it's hard to start without it.
Please understand my argument with the rankings is not with positions, like, 40-100. It's at the top. I see these things as noise. Annual hype machines for toolsy SSs that fit the baseball libido of guys who write about prospects. If they hype them enough, maybe they can get enough of the public to believe in their backwards assessment that Francisco Lindor is a "better" prospect than Kris Bryant, which Lindor is 100% for sure not. If they can get people to believe in their incorrect rankings based on dreaminess of quick-twitch up-the-middle players, maybe they can land a podcast then a sweet gig as a scout for the Twins or something. These lists and this noise might serve that, but it doesn't help a critical reader who knows where value comes from do anything other than read it and dismiss it. That's the whole argument here, in this rant/ramble. That they overstate the elite status of toolsy up-the-middle guys, and they rank them too often higher than the elite bats who are going to create more MLB value.phins wrote:I completely agree that the truly elite, elite players are guys who just flat crush the baseball, but the vast majority of players are not elite (otherwise we'd have to change the definition of elite), they're just guys trying to carve out careers.