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PostPosted: February 11 15, 3:51 pm 
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"I could totally eat a person if it were a life/death situation"

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I don't know who is right or what the argument really even is. But, I never trust the guys whose profile involves will be a spectacular player once the bat comes around. Remember how much Rasmus was praised coming up the farm system and overlooked Craig/Freese were? From that perspective, I think I understand 33's point. Freese was too old and Craig didn't have a position to be 'top' prospects despite hitting, but both those guys turned out pretty well.

Looking forward, and I don't know nearly as much about the minor league players you all are speaking of so I won't get into it, but looking at a guy like Heyward....next year it's a given that he's going to be fast, play RF well, and has a good arm. And, all that is fine and dandy. But, even if he plays awesome D in RF and steals a couple bases, how big of a contract he gets and how far the Cardinals can go will depend more on his offensive numbers than anything else.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 4:00 pm 
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I think 3's is saying that pure hitters are under valued and toolsy SS types are overvalued by X. It's not clear who X is at this point of the argument, all we know is it is a set of people that do not include 3's, Jed, and Theo.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 4:42 pm 
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I'll nutshell the whole thing.

People who talk about prospects on the internet overvalue toolsy quick-twitch up the middle players. They're likely to rationalize why these players CAN make it big in MLB, and use those rationalizations in their overvaluing of the players.
The same people undervalue guys who demonstrate they can mash.They're likely to rationalize why these players CAN'T make it big in MLB, and use thoes rationalizations in undervaluing those players.
Because guys who can mash provide OVERWHELMINGLY more value in MLB than quick-twitch athletes, and have OVERWHELMINGLY longer careers than quick-twitch athletes whose gloves and arms and run are their best tools, they should be listed higher than the quick-twitch athletes on prospect lists.
BP's prospect crew is the most glaring example of this on the internet, and my whipping horse for this particular rant.


Last edited by 33anda3rd on February 11 15, 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: February 11 15, 4:43 pm 
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jim wrote:
I think 3's is saying that pure hitters are under valued and toolsy SS types are overvalued by X. It's not clear who X is at this point of the argument, all we know is it is a set of people that do not include 3's, Jed, and Theo.


And Mozeliak. And Law, who put, wisely, Bryant #1 on his list this year. And lots of other people. Lots.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 5:02 pm 
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Keith Law is an idiot.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 8:29 pm 
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Would everyone agree with this statement? The two most important tools of the big 5 are the two hit tools.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 8:57 pm 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Would everyone agree with this statement? The two most important tools of the big 5 are the two hit tools.


The most important tool- by far- is the hit tool. If you can't make contact against major league pitching you can't play in the big leagues (for the most part, a few outliers such as Mark Reynolds, exist). Functional, in-game power would be next for a corner guy. Glove would be next for a SS/C.

If you have a great glove, great hit SS with average power you have a monster player (Orlando Cabrera in '07, great average, great glove, 97 wRC+ and 4.7 WAR). If you have a great hit, great power corner player with an average glove you have a monster player (Miguel Cabrera in same '07 season putting up .565 slugging, 142 wRC+ and 5.1 WAR, virtually the same as Orlando, who was a below average hitter).

As with most things, context matters.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 9:16 pm 
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I'm going to extend what phins says a little bit, the most important grade is the future hit grade. What I'm getting at here is this - hitting is the most important tool, but it's also the most teachable. As long as a hitter has some god given skill set (bat speed), it's possible to turn a 40 hitter into a 60. However, it's not possible to turn a 40 arm into a 60, or a 40 runner into a 60. Of all the tools, the hit tool is the most teachable and the one that can improve the most. Power is also somewhat teachable, although not as much as the hit tool. Look at Yadi for example.

That's not to say every 30 hitter can become a 50 - if you lack bat speed, you are going to be limited.


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 9:31 pm 
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++ Jim


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PostPosted: February 11 15, 9:36 pm 
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3's will love this...Mr. Bryant has the highest WAR of any minor leaguer over the past nine seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/imperfec ... s-2006-14/


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