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PostPosted: February 14 15, 10:21 am 
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jim wrote:
BTW there are also prospects that jumped quickly - Trout for example. He was the #2 overall prospect in baseball in 2011, yet in your list he's one of those guys in the 51-N list (btw he was top 100 in Baseball America in 2010).


He was on my list as one of the best hitters in the minors b/c he was one of the best hitters in the minors.

He was not on the list of quick-twitch light-bat MI prospects that the BP crew loves so much because that's not him.

Mike Trout is a Baseball Player, not an Athlete. So that's where we categorize him. He's not someone who is slick at SS at 18 years old so we project the world on him. He's someone who's had grown-ass man baseball skills since he was 19.

Once in a while a SS prospect ends up being like him. Actually, once in history, with A-Rod. Otherwise, SSs don't become Mike Trout. They go play another position and are a little less valuable than Mike Trout (Pujols, MIggy, etc.) or they stick at SS and they're a LOT less valuable than Mike Trout (every SS except A-Rod ever.)

That's b/c baseball players, and baseball skills, which Mike Trout possesses in spades, are more valuable than athleticism.


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PostPosted: February 14 15, 12:19 pm 
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3's if you were in charge of the FDA setting up experiments and guidelines for the rx industry to test drugs and get approval we would all be walking around with 3 eyes and limp dicks.


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PostPosted: February 14 15, 12:30 pm 
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Probably not since I'm such a staunch "science trumps belief" guy. The people who would cause that are the ones that say ah, forget science, kids don't need vaccines, the earth is flat, climate change isn't man-made, and good toolsy SSs project higher and produce more than good corner bats because that's what I subjectively believe.


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PostPosted: February 20 15, 9:58 am 
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BA article kind of touching on my point earlier:

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Much like Russell, Correa has the tools and all-around skills to be a solid regular at worst. Looking back over the biggest Top 10 busts of the past, those who have up-the-middle defensive value (such as Ruben Rivera) still wound up being big league regulars for several years. Corner bats (such as Jesus Montero and Ian Stewart) have less to fall back on if their offensive contributions fall short.


BTW - as it's well known now, BA has K-machine Bryant #1, not the more toolsy Buxton.


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PostPosted: February 20 15, 12:43 pm 
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I think that was mostly due to his injury history, most notably a concussion. The guys on the prospect special on MLB Network last night were discussing it.

BTW i could listen to ron darling talk about baseball all day. He was part of the panel.


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PostPosted: February 20 15, 3:49 pm 
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Yeah I heard that, I know that's a part of it. Darling is fantastic, he's a great color guy on the Mets broadcast too.


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PostPosted: February 24 15, 10:55 am 
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jim wrote:
BA article kind of touching on my point earlier:

Quote:
Much like Russell, Correa has the tools and all-around skills to be a solid regular at worst. Looking back over the biggest Top 10 busts of the past, those who have up-the-middle defensive value (such as Ruben Rivera) still wound up being big league regulars for several years. Corner bats (such as Jesus Montero and Ian Stewart) have less to fall back on if their offensive contributions fall short.


BTW - as it's well known now, BA has K-machine Bryant #1, not the more toolsy Buxton.


Yeah, everyone has Bryant #1. Except BP. I took exception to BP's list, specifically. This rambling of mine about the rankings is BP-specific.

Ruben Rivera? Is that the example? If Russell or Correa bust out they're going to at least be Ruben Rivera? He took 1800 PA in a nine-year career. He played in 100 or more games three times. He produced 5.7 rWAR in 9 seasons.

There are plenty of solid regulars at worst who play 1B. Lind, Alonso, Loney, Grandal, Morse, Morrison, Moss, Reynolds, LaRoche. Guys who hang 1-2 WAR. There are just as many of them as there are guys like Amarista, Tejada, Cozart, Miller, Taylor, Flores who do the same from the SS position.

I get their argument--the toolsheds have something to fall back on if they can't hit. But because we have value metrics, we can see that there are just as many 1B who can hit who provide value at MLB as there are SSs who provide value at MLB. For every Allen Craig who craps the bed to negative WAR, there's a Stephen Drew doing the same--and Drew, remember, was a flashy prospect while Craig was not.


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