Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Talk about the Cardinals minor league baseball
phins
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Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by phins »

I cut this down to an in-depth top-10 this year because honestly I didn't have time to finish, but I hope it's worth a read anyway.

This is a post I enjoy making every year, and this year it took me a little longer than desired due to the time it takes to research the players and watch them play as much as I can. When I compile a list such as this, I try to evaluate the player based on a combination of ceiling, performance to date, role once in the big leagues, and the chances of reaching that ceiling. I have seen almost every player ranked either on video or, preferably, in person, but often times I have to collaborate with other sources to form a consensus on a player. I readily admit I tend to like players with a certain skill set over others…I value the hit tool greatly, and a player with both an advanced approach and a solid hit tool will tend to be a player I covet over players that have immense power but little contact/approach, or players with elite speed but not enough strength to scare a pitcher into working carefully to them at the big league level.


I tend to lower a player until they reach a full season league, and give even more credence to a player who has proven themselves at the AA level over a player who hasn’t. I will downgrade a player who is repeating a level, and I have become a big proponent of age to level metrics as an indicator of future projection. There has been quite a bit of research into the correlation between age and certain performance levels at a certain minor league level and performance at the big league level.


For pitchers, I tend to value velocity and a high groundball percentage. Another tool I’ve started utilizing more and more is reviewing how often a pitcher gets swinging strikes. This metric tends to tell you a lot about the quality of stuff a pitcher has, or can also show some deception when the pitcher doesn’t have quite the elite stuff of others, but maintains a high swinging strike percentage. I tend to like pitchers who are in that 6-3 range with long levers and loose, easy mechanics. Although the recent success the Cardinals have had with bigger pitchers like Carp, Waino, Wacha, I’m opening my mind to taller pitchers who are athletic, as they tend to repeat their mechanics better. We’re in the infancy stages of researching pitcher mechanics and any correlation to injury, but the research I’ve seen do not give nearly as much credence to the notion of the “inverted W” leading to injury as you would expect. There is quite a bit more correlation between frame and durability, but even that isn’t truly strong enough to be considered statistically relevant. I tend to like athletic pitchers with extremely quick arms. If a pitcher can spin a breaking ball with an extremely fast arm, they can generally be taught to develop a breaking pitch of some sort. If you can find a pitcher with all of those things you generally have a solid pitching prospect. If you find all of the above packaged with a pitcher who has above average command (place ball where you want to inside/outside strike zone) and control (ability to avid walks) you have a monster prospect.


It’s important to note that I am not a professional, I do not pretend to be a professional, and do not want to claim to be a professional. I do this for fun, but I do take it seriously. I read reports, I follow professionals who share their thoughts, I form my opinion through observations, and I have been fortunate enough to be around a great college program that routinely has professional scouts in attendance of their games who are gracious enough to share tidbits and tips with me. Disagree with as much as you’d like, as I welcome the feedback and will learn from it and grow from it.


With the graduation of some studs to the big club, and an influx of draft picks, you’ll see some different names on the list this year, and there are some players who will be rated in different spots depending on the list you review. This isn’t an indictment on their talent level, but rather a testament to how many talented players on the back end of the lists that the Cardinals have.


1. Oscar Tavares, OF- 6/19/92, 6-2, 200.
Season overview: 2013 started with the expectation of the young phenom making his major league debut sometime around his 21st birthday, but ended with fans still waiting for their first sight of the precocious young talent. In many ways, 2013 was a lost season for Taveras, who battled ankle issues the entire second half of the season. It started out as merely a “high ankle sprain” but Goold has recently reported the tissue actually tore away from the bone and required surgery. The expectation is that the injury will not have any lasting impact on Taveras, but that remains to be seen. Taveras was limited to 186 plate appearances and having arguably his worst offensive season of his career. Taveras still slashed .306/.341/.462 for an .803 OPS, but those numbers do not look quite as great when you take into consideration the Pacific Coast League is such a hitters league, and the average slash line was .270/.342/.414. His K rate is that of a slap hitter (11.8%, league average of 19.5%). I’d really like to see a reversal of his BB rate, which fell to a career low 4.8% (league average 9.1%).


Tools: Taveras is no slouch in any area on the baseball diamond, but what makes Taveras special is his hit tool. He has otherworldly hand/eye coordination and lets the baseball travel deep into the zone before pulling the trigger on a violent swing that is rarely cheated. He’s put on weight, and his wrists are already so strong and quick, his bat speed is supernatural, causing loft and carry when he makes contact. Taveras is a wiry power hitter, as opposed to some of the behemoth’s hitting baseball’s into the stratosphere in MLB currently. Taveras is clearly a 70 hit, 65 power guy who has worked hard to prove he can be adequate in CF. I’ve always seen him as a RF’er long term, but he’s doing more and more to prove he can handle the position in the bigs. He’s a tick below average runner, and has a tick below average arm. This kind of tool set gives Taveras the chance to be an elite hitter who plays a premium position. Yes, he’s a heck of a prospect.

What could go wrong: The biggest concern with Taveras is health. Here are the game totals for Taveras in his career: 60, 97, 124, 47. Taveras needs to show his injuries are fluky, rather than a sign of a lack of durability. More and more teams are starting to view durability as a skill, one that some players have, while others do not. As the old saying goes, “You’re greatest ability is your availability.” The other issue that could come up for Taveras to limit his tools from actualizing is his plate discipline. A walk rate under 5% if not a great indicator in most cases, especially for a power hitter without a lot of speed. That said, his bat control is so outrageous, he has contact rates to overcome the low walk rate. He makes contact 84.9% of the time he swings at a pitch in the zone versus left-handers and at 90.9% of the time when he faces a righty. What’s unusual is that Taveras has virtually no split tendencies, swinging at pitches out of the zone 9.4% of the time against lefties and 9.3% of the time against righties. This tells me he actually controls the zone quite well- especially against lefties where you’d expect a much higher swing percentage due to the breaking balls a same hand pitch would bring. Taveras doesn’t walk a ton, but it’s because he swings the bat so well, not because he’s fooled so often.

Future: I am confident that if Taveras stays healthy, he’ll not only be good, he’ll be a star in the big leagues. I expect Taveras to start the season in the minor leagues, but to be up at some point during the year, force his way into the lineup and start smashing baseballs shortly thereafter. Love watching this kid hit, and more than once I have been left in awe at his hand-eye coordination.
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2. Carlos Martinez, RHP- 9/21/1991, 6’, 185.
Season overview: At first I wasn’t going to include the flashy Martinez on the list since I’m not including Wacha, but eventually I decided the fact he only pitched 20 innings at the big league level and really didn’t become a key contributor until the playoffs won out and I included him on the list. I’m pretty confident in saying this will be the last time you see him on the list. Martinez has been someone we’ve been waiting on ever since he signed out of the Dominican Republic a few years ago. Despite all the fanfare he generated, Martinez didn’t find instant success at the big league level, putting up a 5.31 ERA and a 7.08 K/9 rate in those 20.1 innings.


Tools: Remember above me posting I love velocity and ground balls out of a prospect? Well, this is something Martinez excels in. He throws an explosive fastball out of a small package that gets on hitters with a little extra oomph at the end- even for a 98 mph pitch. He also induced ground balls at a 52.8% clip at Memphis and then carried that over to the big leagues at 51.6%. His fastball is a 75 on the scale, and with refinement might end up an 80. While his fastball is dominant, a second pitch also has the chance to be quite good in his curveball. At times, this pitch holds its tilt and depth and is devastating down. Other times it flattens out and stays up. When that happens, it gets hit hard, but this pitch graded out above average at the big league level last year. Due to his short stature, Martinez struggles to keep a downward trac. This is pronounced even more when he tires and his elbow starts to drag. His curveball is a 60 grade pitch currently, with the potential to be a 70. That two pitch combination is explosive and should allow Martinez to avoid massive splits, holding virtually identical K rates in the minor leagues against both sides of the plate. In an extremely small sample size, he did struggle to maintain his K rates in the big leagues. Martinez throws a changeup and a two seam fastball currently, but neither has seen much success and both rate below average.

What could go wrong: Well, Martinez is a short right-handed pitcher with quite a bit of effort in his delivery. The first thing that could go wrong is injury. Martinez also throws virtually only two pitches, and the small sample size struggles versus lefties give one pause as to his longterm prospects as a starter at the big league level. For me, at worst he’ll be a monster ROOGY in the big leagues.

Future: The future is now for the excitable Carlos Martinez compared to greats of the past due to stature and velocity. I see Martinez playing a heavy role on the 2014 Cardinals, starting out as either an 8th inning or perhaps, 7th inning setup man.

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3. Kolten Wong- 2B, 10/10/90, 5-9, 185.
Season overview: It’s easy to forget Wong played the entire 2013 regular season at age 22 and made his major league debut. The diminutive 2B’man has progressed steadily through the minor leagues since being a 1st round pick in 2011. Wong slashed .303/.369/.466 in AAA compared to the league average of .270/.342/.414. His K% was great at only 13.0% and a walk rate of 8.9% is solid. At the major league level he struggled on the surface at .163/.182/.186 but a 20.0% line drive percentage should produce a much higher BABIP than .200 and he traditionally has hit the ball with enough authority that pitchers shouldn’t just knock the bat out of his hands after he adjusts. Where Wong struggled at the major league level is pitch recognition, swinging at pitches outside of the zone an unheard of 50% of the time in very limited time versus lefties and a still far too high 31.2% of the time against righties.
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Tools: Not much has changed in the tools department for Mr. Wong, as last year I wrote: The diminutive lefty is solid average across the board from a tools perspective, but does not possess any elite tools. Wong can hit a baseball and loves to play the game. He works hard at his craft and is known to be a gym rat. He has a simple, smooth swing plane that stays in the zone a long time. He can consistently barrel a baseball and has above average bat speed. He is an aggressive hitter with a big follow-through and lots of effort in his swing (drawing comparisons to Pedroia). He lets the ball travel deep and uses all field when behind in the count and looking to pull the ball with authority when ahead in the count. Really soft hands at the plate and has a quiet set-up. Standard leg kick and simple stride, but can let his stride get a little long when he’s fooled on breaking stuff, and tends to roll over on good breaking balls. He’s been trained well on hitting and he is always looking for an edge. I am comfortable putting a 60 on his hit tool, and that is plus. For me, the hit tool is the most important tool to possess. If you can’t handle the bat and can’t make consistent contact at the plate, you aren’t going to be a good hitter. Wong is more of a doubles hitter and he generally needs to pull the ball to hit for power. He has decent hands, a strong arm and has improved his pivot and turn quite a bit from the time he entered pro ball. Wong is an instinctual runner whose speed plays up due to jumps and baseball IQ. I’d say his glove is currently a 55 and has the potential to be a 60. His arm is a 55 and is just fine for a 2B’man.

This still pretty much holds true, and an example of his speed playing up due to instincts is shown in Wong stealing 23 bases and being caught only one time across the minor and major league levels last year. Wong also is another player who hasn’t exhibited any tendencies towards being a liability versus same hand pitching, hitting .285/.337/.408 versus lefties and .309/.378/.463 versus righties.

What could go wrong: He’s a short, grinder type 2B’man who is a sum of his parts player who relies on everything playing up due to grit and work ethic. The Cardinals have made a name based on this type of player, but he showed that he limitations in his brief cup of coffee with the big club, looking overwhelmed at times. He also had the embarrassing gaffe on national television when he was picked off to end a World Series game. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back from that experience. As a 2B only player, if he doesn’t start, he doesn’t hold a ton of value at the big league level as he doesn’t play any other position to employ him as a utility player.

Future: The Cardinals have basically handed Wong the keys to the 2B castle after their trade of David Freese to the Angels. I expect Wong to handle the position well defensively, to bring some needed athleticism to the team and to hit better than he did last year in his time in the big leagues, but I think expectations need to be tempered with what Wong ultimately will become. I see him as a good player, but not a true star.

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4. Stephen Piscotty, RF- 6-3, 210, 1/14/91.
Season overview: I’m filling out my list and reading my notes, watching film, looking at what I had written about Piscotty and had planned to put him #5, but the more and more I reviewed things, I had to move him up. He has really improved and impressed me that much. Piscotty reached the AA level in his second season of professional baseball and actually improved both his K and BB rates while there (9.2% both ways). He slashed .299/.364/.446 for an .810 OPS compared to the league averages of .252/.319/.388 and .707. He put up a .382 wOBA, which was a tick better than the .374 he put up in high A, even though his slash line was a tick better at A ball. One of the things that makes Piscotty such a good hitter is his ability to make contact with a contact percentage of 86.7% compared to the league average of 77.7%, while swinging at nearly the league average rate of 46.4% of the time. Biggest position player climber of the system.
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Tools: I mentioned Piscotty’s ability to make contact, and that contact ability and pitch recognition ability lead to his best tool, which is his hit tool. Piscotty has the ability to be a .300 hitter at times in his career, and if he wasn’t in the same system as Oscar Taveras, he’d get a lot more notoriety for it. He’s a solid 65 hit tool and I’m a tough grader. His other plus tool is his arm. He has plenty of arm for RF, and I’m confident throwing a 60 on his arm at that position. He’s an average runner, and an improving defender, while still below average in that area being new to the position. What will make Piscotty an above average regular, or relegate him to a 4th OF’er role is his power. I’ve always believed as he gets further from his reactive, opposite field stroke of college, his power would come. It has improved, and he has gotten to the point where he will probably project to that 15 HR range with some years over 20. Piscotty looks great in a uniform and has an absolutely sculpted physique and frame.

What could go wrong: His power stalls, he becomes more of a 10 HR guy who doesn’t make pitchers respect his power and they pound him hard inside, inducing weak contact. A high contact rate is great unless it’s weak contact. His defense doesn’t develop as expected and he’s a high contact, average running, weak powered reserve OF’er. Piscotty has tinkered with his stance and his swing quite a bit. The swing is noisy now, and while he uses his hips and legs better to create power, he wraps his bat a bit and his swing can get long or out of rhythm and then out on his front foot.

Future: Piscotty is expected to make his debut at some point during the 2014 season, and the Cards love his grinding style. He takes an extremely competitive at bat, has no platoon splits (he actually raked against righties this year), has a great frame and physique and developing power. Bright future.
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5. Marco Gonzales, LHP- 6’, 185, 2/16/1982.
Season overview: Billed as a polished pitcher with plus athleticism and a tick of projection due to not focusing on pitching alone as a collegian, Gonzales was handled with kid gloves after a long season at Gonzaga. He ended the year at High-A Palm Beach, so he was a quick mover as advertised. His numbers didn’t overwhelm, but I generally don’t get too caught up in a few late season starts for a collegian pushed up a few levels. Admittedly, it is exciting when a pitcher dominates early like Wacha did.

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Tools: Gonzales is not your prototypical dominant stuff pitcher, but that’s not to say he is a soft tosser either. Gonzales is an extremely athletic pitcher with a smooth motion that starts out with a simple leg lift, excellent symmetry between his lower and upper torso and then an explosive movement towards the plate. He has some deception in his deliver with an upper ¾ arm slot and a slight backward movement in his leg kick. The result is that his fastball plays “up” a tick better than his 91-93 velocity would indicate. His fastball is solidly an above average pitch that will see 60’s placed on it by most. He has good leg size and uses extension well. His motion is a mirror image of itself every time and you can see his plus athleticism that allows him to spin a curveball tight and fast. The curveball right now is more of a spinner and comes in at that 77-79 mph range. I think this will be a pitch he uses only 6-10 times a game unless it improves moving forward. Right now it’s a show pitch and in that 45 range. The pitch that separates Gonzales is his changeup. Even in slow motion and from the batters view, it is virtually identical to the fastball until the very release point. He throws it in the 80-82 range and it has great downward spin and late fade. This pitch is a true 70 on the scale and it plays up from there due to his ability to locate the pitch. Two plus pitches, a third pitch that is usable and plus athleticism that makes all three of them play up, while also being an accomplished hitter and fielder of his position make him a prospect that is pretty excellent once the parts all come together.

What could go wrong: A college baseball hass higher laces and is generally easier to throw than a professional baseball. You always worry about the transition and whether it will impact pitchers who do not have an overpowering fastball. With Gonzales both his K rate and his groundball rates plummeted with a step up to High-A. Was that attributable to his stuff playing less than hoped on the professional level, or was that simply a tiny sample size noise situation? If you accept the fact that his ceiling is not that of an All-Star, you don’t have much else outside of the standard pitchers break concerns. Gonzales will move quickly, and has as high a floor of any pitching prospect in recent memory.

Future: If truth be told, Gonzales isn’t an exciting, flashy pick with the monster ceiling of some other players, but will be ready to contribute quickly and conceivably could make his debut this season if the Cardinals wanted to rush him. I think there’s a tick of projection left in him as he focuses solely on pitching rather than hitting as well as he served as the DH with Gonzaga as well. His athleticism will leave him as a strike throwing machine who should be able to locate all three of his pitches, while his changeup should prevent him from being prone to massive splits against opposite hand hitters. Very high chance of actualization of tools.

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6. Alex Reyes, RHP- 6-3, 185, 8/29/1994.
Season overview: Meet your breakout pitching prospect of 2013. I don’t mean for the Cardinals, I mean for the minor leagues. I have really had a hard time with an exact ranking of our prospects once I get past 5. I originally had Cooney at 6, then I had Kaminsky, then I had Reyes, and then I settled on leaving the upside righty at number 6. Reyes us a fun story of a NY high school player who moved to the DR with family to avoid being in the draft. The Cardinals gave him $950,000 to sign and he has been on the fast track ever since. Having the advantage of being comfortable in the United States and knowing the language, he’s made a seamless transition to professional baseball. While the Cardinals rookie league is a pitcher’s league, Reyes still impressed with a 2.74 FIP and a 10.49 K/9. His opponents BABIP of .353 was a bit unlucky with a LD% of only 10.5. His K/swinging % of 19.4% is solid, but 4.32 BB/9 needs to be sharpened up. For reference, the major league average for K% is about 19%.

Tools: Reyes is one of the few players on the list I’ve never seen play live or at least in a showcase of some sort, so a lot of this is what I’ve seen on video and read by prospect professionals. I’ve written many times that my favorite pitchers frame is a 6-3, 185 lb starter with long arms and levers that creates a whip-like action on all their pitches. Well, Reyes meets that criteria perfectly. His fastball is explosive and comes out free and easy. This is a legitimate power arm with a fastball that sits 92-95 and can touch 97 at 18 years of age. His curveball is a power overhand pitch with late bite and downward movement. It’s a swing and miss pitch and has great potential. His changeup is like a lot of young pitchers- a work in progress. His command comes and goes and is tied to an inconsistent motion that is quite jumpy and is easily disrupted. A 70/65/50 starter is a stud, but below average command/control is a strong consideration.

What could go wrong: Reyes has a lot of effort in his delivery currently and he looks to be throwing everything full out and is hard and harder. He struggles with a consistent motion, with an aggressive and violent leg lift and then a full turn and drive through with the torso that explodes at the hitter. Finding a consistent release point and smoothing out the tempo of the delivery will be keys to his development. If the delivery does not become consistent, the changeup does not development into an average offering, he’ll end up a reliever. Reyes needs to learn to work something other than hard/harder to keep hitters from sitting on his hard stuff.

Future: This kid screams upside, with a magical arm to go with the Cardinals collection of power arms that have made their way to the big leagues already. He has a great frame, has already made big strides and has a variance of a #2 starter to a 7th inning reliever if the development stalls and the command/control doesn’t improve. He’s already pitched a full season in the states before his 19th birthday and is said to be a hard worker who wants to be great. I’m betting on this kid’s upside currently.
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7. Carson Kelly, C- 6-2, 200, 7/14/1994.
Season overview: One of the great things about being a prospect geek and being a St. Louis Cardinals fan lately is the fact that you can go into a project in reviewing their system expecting the system to be quite down due to graduations and then go into a run of players like the next stretch of players who all took giant steps forward in their prospect profile. Kelly has always been an above average athlete with a fantastic arm and well above average athleticism. It has long been believed that he’ll slot into 3B and have quite a bit of athleticism there, but the Cardinals have made the decision to try his athleticism at the C position and he has taken to it quite well. Kelly hit well at an age appropriate level of State College with a slash of .277/.340/.387 with a healthy .363 wOBA. He was aggressively promoted to the Midwest League and predictably struggled at .219/.288/.301. While those numbers are not good, a deeper evaluation shows that he was very young for a full season league, and he maintained his plate discipline, which is often times the first thing to go upon a promotion (walk rate improved from 6.7% to 7.7%, and his K rate increased to 14.9% from 10.4%, that is still a very manageable number).

Tools: Kelly’s best tool is his arm, which is well above average at any position on the diamond, but his next best tool is his power. The right-handed swinging Kelly produces great loft and backspin on the ball with a simple, short stroke that involves his hips and lower bottom working in tandem. He has the majority of his HR power to pull side, but allows the ball to travel deep and can drive a ball into the RF gap. Kelly’s going to grow to 220 lbs. and the power will increase to 65 future. A 70 arm, 65 power, 55 run, 50 hit catcher is a star. I need more information and tape in order to accurately evaluate his defense, but I believe in his athleticism and he easily has the arm for it.

What could go wrong: Well, he’s making a drastic change to a much tougher position late in his development and while he profiles as a star at C, he’s merely a role 5 player at 3B. My ranking obviously is aggressive, and with this level of risk, you’re talking about a total projection. He can be exploited in, and up & in especially. He’ll need to close that hole to take the next step.

Future: The profile depends heavily on him being able to stay behind the plate, and a transition to catcher will delay his arrival by some time. Luckily, with Yadi in tow they can wait. His swing is simple and loaded with power, especially on mistakes middle-in. He’s young for his level and has plenty of room to grow. I like this kid, and always have. It’s just going to take time here.

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8. Tim Cooney, LHP, 6-3, 195, 12/19/1990.
Season overview: The Cardinals have long had success with baseball grinder types with the requisite tools to play in the big leagues. Something in their development program allows them to squeeze every ounce of potential from their draft picks. The 3rd round pick out of Wake Forest is another example of this trend. Cooney pitched well in the Florida State League, but really took off when being moved to AA Springfield, who plays in a notorious hitters league (Texas League). Despite the step up in competition, Cooney showed an improvement across the board, taking his K/9 from 5.75 K/9 up to a very good 9.51. His swinging K% jumped from 11.6% up to 18.5%, and his GB% jumped up to 45.5% as well. All trends that contributed to his 2.55 FIP and 2.75 SIERA. A .371 BABIP skewed his ERA, which came in at 3.80.

Tools: Cooney is not a dominant stuff pitcher, but the third lefty to join the list has major league stuff. He throws an average 90-93 mph fastball that he commands well. He does a great job of spotting the ball to all four quadrants and stays on top of the ball very well. His best pitch is his curveball, which profiles as easy plus. He throws a cutter that he loves to run in on righties and he commands it especially well up-and-in against righties. He throws the token changeup, but really relies on the curveball to get out opposite handed hitters. 50-60-50 lefty that repeats his motion, stays on top of the ball and uses an athletic motion to maintain excellent command/control. Simple leg lift and then drive and follow through from a fairly low ¾ arm motion.

What could go wrong: Cooney lives on the margin of stuff, and can’t afford to lose a tick of velocity, or a tick of command. He doesn’t have a ton of projection left and he doesn’t really have any truly elite pitches, while his GB% is also fairly average.

Future: Cooney profiles as a back of the rotation starter that will give above average innings at the major league level. Having already reached AA and performed quite well while there, he’s a fairly safe prospect with a high floor, but not stratospheric upside. Cooney has not shown any sort of platoon split, as he’s had a 2.50 FIP against lefties and a 2.80 FIP against righties. Cooney actually induces more swing and misses versus righties while having less contact made against him by righties. Not a lot of video available for him, but I’ve seen him live twice.
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9. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, 5-11, 191, 9/2/1994.
Season overview: A second diminutive lefty on the list, but this one hailing from the Northeast, by way of New Jersey. Every year, a kid becomes sort of a pet prospect and I pull for their success. Two seasons ago it was Robert Stephenson, last year it was Addison Russell and this year I had a few more in JP Crawford, Hunter Harvey and this kid, Rob Kaminsky. Kaminsky had a very brief debut in the minor leagues, posting a solid 21.4% swinging K percentage and 11.49 K/9 in the Gulf Coast League, a pitchers league, but still far above the 14.5% and 7.91 league averages respectively. He showed excellent ground ball rates (51.7%) and a low LD % (11.7), but was still fairly unlucky on batted balls (.373 BABIP).


Tools: Being a sub 6’ left-hander you would expect that he’d be a little short on stuff, but Kaminsky was routinely in the low 90’s on the camp circuit and actually surprised scouts by getting a little more as a professional, clocking 95-97 on one occasion. His velocity is triggered by a delivery that uses every ounce of torque his torso can produce and while the delivery isn’t the same from an aesthetics perspective, it is similar to Lincecum in the way he uses leverage to get the most out of his physique. His fastball is easily a 60 right now, and if he becomes more consistent with his command/control and holds that velocity late into games as he moves up the ladder, it could reach higher grades. The money pitch, the one that gets the girls for Kaminsky is the curveball. I’m a succor for a good curveball, and Kaminsky possesses one. In fact, his curveball is the single best high school breaking pitch in last year’s draft IMO. We have a resident curveball expert on the staff already in Adam Wainwright, but while Adam’s is your traditional 12-6 dynamo, Kaminsky throws his curveball with more velocity and is a 2-8 type spin rather than simply over-the-top. It’s at least a 70 pitch for me and is legit. His delivery maintains great balance and is your traditional ¾ arm slot show above. He lands a little stiff on his front leg which I believe contributes a little to his tendency to miss high and way to right-handed hitters and he has had some control issues in the times I’ve seen him. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus was asked a question of who had impressed the most initially from the 2013 draft class and here was his answer:
Fred (Detroit): Other than the top talents from the most recent draft class, who has jumped up prospect boards after their first season of pro ball? Phil Ervin? Ryan McMahon? Billy McKinney?

Jason Parks: Those are nice choices, but don't forget guys like Hunter Harvey, Shipley, Kaminsky.
What could go wrong: He’s a sub 6’ high school pitcher with very little in the way of a third pitch currently (changeup). He has had demonstrated some command/control issues in the past and some believe he might end up a reliever in the long run.

Future: I truly believe in this kid and believe has a big time future. Lightning fast arm, athletic, plus stuff in his fastball/curveball combination and from everything I’ve seen, this kid wants to be great. He’ll have to prove it everywhere he goes due to his size, but I wanted this kid to end up a Cardinal badly. He’s polished for a high school pitcher and knows how to attack hitters already. I’d rank him even higher if not for the size concerns, being a high school pitcher and the lack of a 3rd pitch.
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10. James Ramsey, OF, 6-0, 190, 12/19/1989.
Season overview: First a tidbit, it’s interesting that the Cardinals have two top-10 prospects born the same day, but one year apart (Cooney and Ramsey). Ramsey has really had a fast path up the ladder, as one would expect from a first round prospect who is older as a prospect (24). He hit .251/.356/.424 at the AA level, with a .348 wOBA. Ramsey boasts a solid BB rate at 12.7%, but also a very high K rate at 26.0%. Typically, a K rate above 25% is a bad omen (a K rate above 30% is a non-starter for a prospect). Ramsey has surprisingly turned into more of a three true outcome type hitter than I ever would’ve believed seeing him in college.

Tools: Ramsey is a pull happy left-handed hitter who uses bat speed to generate power, but tends to cheat with his hands and hips against velocity, which leave him vulnerable to offspeed pitching. Ramsey is a guess hitter who swings only 40% of the time, who has excellent plate recognition. Ramsey has developed above average power, posting a solid .173 Iso, and an unsustainable 25% HR/FB ratio. Ramsey is a 55 power, 45 hit, 45 run, 45 glove, 45 arm type player who doesn’t truly profile as a starter. Short, quick, compact swing that travels a direct path to the ball. He does get on his front foot when fooled and will induce weak contact when that occurs.

What could go wrong: Ramsey has no elite tool to rely on, and runs the risk of his power evaporating as more advanced pitching exposes his approach and attacks him more in the zone with breaking pitches thrown for strikes. He’s not fast, he’s not special on defense, he’s not an excellent hitter for average, and while he has shown above average pop thus far, it could collapse against better stuff.

Future: Ramsey is known to bring plus plus intangibles to the clubhouse and will work with anyone. This type of player who is a grinder and has requisite tools to make the big leagues tends to overachieve on the whole, but taking the unmeasurable away, Ramsey profiles as a great 4th OF who can back up all three OF spots and not embarrass himself if forced into action. He’ll draw a walk and hit a few long balls off the bench and never create a problem in the clubhouse.
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11. Randal Grichuk, RF, 6-1, 195, 08/13/1991.
Big armed RF'er who has had impressive slugging and Iso metrics, but the K rate will hold him back and if he doesn't make consistent contact he will struggle to play. Most likely role is as a lefty crushing bench power bat who can play multiple OF spots and play an excellent RF. Already at AAA, he's a 40 hit, 60 power, 45 run, 60 arm, 55 glove profile. Problem is, it's two different skill sets against righty and lefties. If he learns to swing at more pitches in the strike zone vs righties he could be a starter. If not, he's a stick off the bench with pop. That's a nice piece to add to a team who needs his skill set.

12. Patrick Wisdom, 3B, 6-2, 210, 08/27/1991.
Profiles pretty similarly to Grichuk, except at 3B. Low contact hitter who relies on power and defense to hold his prospect value. Great hands, instincts around the bag and above average power potential. Underrated prospect who didn't have a great year. 40 hit, 60 power, 40 run, 55 arm, 60 glove profile but much further away and virtually the same age as Grichuk. Unlike Grichuk, Wisdom is much more likely to draw a walk. Wisdom has the upside to turn into a moderate level starting 3B or another nice power bench bat who can play the corner infield positions.

13. Charlie Tilson- OF, 5-11, 175, 12/02/1992.
Tilson is a small, speedy slap hitter who can't stay healthy. I'm not a huge fan, but he has value due to his ability to play CF well and he can really run once he reaches the bases. Big year for him in his development coming off a solid year. Profiles as a future 55 hit type who can consistently make contact, wiry frame could max out at 40 power but hit lots of doubles and triples in the gaps, 70 run, 60 glove, 45 arm. If everything came together could be a starter, but I'm not a huge believer.

14. Greg Garcia- SS, 6-0, 190, 08/08/1989.
Grinder type the Cardinals have had a lot of success with in the past. Maximizes his tools and has a chance to be a very good utility player who may even grind out a few years as a starter in the big leagues somewhere. Great plate discipline and will work for everything. Position type defensive player without quick twitch athleticism to ever be elite at SS. Most likely will make his debut at some point this year and with the Cards depth chart at SS organizationally, you never know if he gets his chance. 55 hit, 40 power, 45 glove, 45 arm, 45 run type player who has everything play up.

15. Tyrell Jenkins- RHP, 6-4, 204, 07/20/1992.
Still only 21, this former top prospect feels much older. Has never translated raw athleticism and stuff into tangible results, his K rate has plummeted as he's dealt with injuries while his walk rate has skyrocketed. Hate to hear shoulder and pitcher together, but he fits in here due to potential with a great fastball and a very fast arm that can really spin a breaking ball combined with a perfect pitchers frame. Tough to judge the stuff after injuries and this season will be pivotal in what he could become.

16. Zach Petrick- RHP, 6-3, 195, 07/29/1989.
Undrafted free agent who exploded this year. Started at Peoria, was great, moved up was really good and moved up again and was good. Starting to get older as a prospect, but also starting to catch up level and age-wise. Solid stuff all the around and he misses bats. Low-90's but comes right at hitters with his stuff and has great command. Athletic player who probably profiles best in the bullpen, but another coup for the Cardinals scouting staff in my eyes.

17. Oscar Mercado- SS, 6-2, 175, 12/16/1994.
Highly touted prep player who had a terrible season at the high school level and didn't fare much better once reaching the pros. He's on this list because he can stick at SS and has some tools to develop. Dream on an inside-out swing that can make contact and a decent enough approach to hit at the bottom of a ML lineup. His upside is capped due to bat questions, but has the chance to be a starting player due to glove. Once thought of a possible top-10 pick. Early to say but he's here because I've seen him and think there's a chance. I actually like him less than Edmundo Sosa, but he hasn't played in the States yet.

18. Juan Herrera- SS, 5-11, 165, 06/28/1993.
Another glove first SS prospect, but Herrera is an elite defensive SS prospect. He has virtually no power though and more advanced pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands. Could develop some strength and carve out a career as a utility player. Acquired from Indians for Scrabble.

19. Kenny Peoples-Walls- OF, 6-1, 180, 08//16/1993.
Cardinals like him quite a bit and believe he has power potential. I think he ends up an OF though and that requires a lot more bat. Strikes out a ton and rarely walks. Has been brought along slowly, but has started to blossom. If he finds a way to stick at SS he's much more of a legit prospect. Makes the list due to power potential and raw athleticism.

20. Steven Bean- C, 6-2, 190, 09/15/1993.
Cardinals have always liked him quite a bit and believe his defense will have him carve out a long career as a backup C. No power and still learning to hit while going through the grind of being a C, but the Cardinals believe in his pitch calling and the way he handles a pitching staff. A slow cook prospect, but one who has a chance.

21. Lee Stoppelman- LHP, 6-2, 210, 05/24/1990.
Pop-up prospect who throws from very a very low arm angle- almost side arm, and has a lot of deception. He throws a great breaking ball that eliminates splits for him, but struggles with throwing strikes to righties especially. A reliever only prospect, but has a real chance to make it.

22. Edmundo Sosa- SS, 5-11, 170, 03/06/1996.
Extremely young international prospect signed last year has created a buzz with his play thus far. Makes lot of contact, walked more than he struck out in a decidedly pitchers' league and looked like a guy to be excited about. Will hopefully come to the States this year and we'll really see what we have here. Slashed .306/.395/.452 in a league with averages of .236/.329/.317. K% of 8.1 and a walk percentage of 11.8%. The league average is 10.3% and serves as a reminder of how raw the competition was and that we may not know his true plate discipline quite yet. Exciting player though who is believed to be able to stick at SS and definitely at 2B.

23. Victor DeLeon- RHP, 6-2, 190, 04/19/1992.
Still a fave but has made no discernible gains in his control (10.7, 10.6, 10.8% BB rates past three years). Great arm, nice frame, big potential, but hasn't put it together as well as I'd hoped.

I like Nick Petree as a deep sleeper who could grind his way to the big leagues and there were several other arms who could make it in a relief role. Not a rock star system anymore and after the top-7 or so it starts to get tricky to differentiate, but the Cards have a bunch of prospects pushing to the upper levels who will contribute soon and a chance to reload this upcoming draft with once again an extra 1st round pick.

Izzyman
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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Izzyman »

Awesome stuff! This is the reason I don't even bother with Baseball America any more. Excited to see Sosa on the list, hope he makes it to the states this year. I'm a little more excited about Mercado than you but that is mostly based on how highly the Cardinals seem to value him and a decent contact rate compared to our other hs picks. Carson Kelly actually started in low a and was moved to short-season when they started up. I think I read that People-Walls is going to the OF this year but I'll try to verify. Thanks again!

phins
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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by phins »

Yeah I put Peoples-Walls as an OF, as the plan is to transition him there. Generally once you leave you don't come back to SS. As a SS prospect he'd be much higher.

You're right that the Cards love Mercado's potential.

Thanks for the kind words.

Magneto2.0
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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Magneto2.0 »

I wish I could pay you for these. Always extremely appreciated

And seeing that we have a player born in 1996 makes me feel so old.

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Jocephus »

much appreciated

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Maclowery »

So much fun to read. Thanks as always. One of the best things about GRB

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Socnorb11 »

This is fantastic. Thanks a bunch for taking the time to do it, phins.

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by Fat Strat »

Great write up. System looks deeper than I thought it would with projectable guys like Kaminsky coming in closer to 10 than to 5. I also really like your aggressive ranking of Kelly. He's a guy to watch this year. If he progresses, it will be very interesting to see what happens with him and Molina. Yadi might have a pretty good platoon partner to rely on when he hits his mid 30's.

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

awesome.

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Re: Cards top-21 (top-10 detailed)

Post by a_smith »

Thanks phins

I love reading these in the offseason and coming back to them at the end of the year.

I really like your posts.

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