2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

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phins
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2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by phins »

The 2015 MLB draft has come and gone, the signing deadline has come and gone, and now it’s time to assess how things went for the Birds. As with any year, there is a certain artistry to how the pieces fit together, and is not a straight talent grab throughout the draft. There is an element of value, as well as maximizing the bonus pool allotted to your team.

This draft is unique as it is the first- and only as it turned out- under the direction of Chris Correa, who took over for Dan Kantrovitz, who left to rejoin the Oakland A’s organization. While obviously the final say comes down to Mozeliak, the GM generally only is involved in the first few picks and then turns the rest of the draft over to the scouting director. After the ~20th round you start to get into the territory that your regional scouts and crosscheckers weigh heavily on the picks made. The point with this is to say we may have background information on player types the Cards have been interested in previously, but under new direction you also saw some differences.

One of the major differences between the MLB draft and the drafts of other major sports leagues is in the fact you generally do not make draft picks with needs in mind. Due to the fact the vast majority of draft picks are several years away from the big leagues, it is nearly impossible to project into the future long enough to forecast what will be needed by the time the picks are ready to make meaningful contributions. This draft seems to have tested this theory in the sense that the Cards have precious little in the way of high upside position players in the minor leagues, and that was absolutely the focus for the Cards in this draft. In previous drafts the Cards have attacked positions that are shallow in their system, but often times that has been catcher, shortstop, centerfield, and those are positions that tend to have the athleticism to move to other positions (or, in the case of catchers, be a necessity to fill out a farm club). This draft focused less on hitters with the athleticism to move to other positions, and more on position players whose best tool is either the hit tool or the power tool. This is definitely a sexier approach than we have seen in the past, but also one wrought with risk in the sense that bat only players have to really hit to have plus value, and the hitters whose best tool is power tend to have a higher bust rate.

Round 1. What the Cards did: Take a raw high school bat
Nick Plummer (7-31-96) is a high school bat out of a Michigan high school who scouts tended to be quite split on. If your national crosschecker saw him at the Area Code games or the World Championship he probably labeled him as a top-10 player in the draft. If he saw him at the start of his high school season he probably labeled him as a 2nd round prospect. Plummer is a stocky player who is mature physically. He’s only 5-11 and is a tick above-average runner who will probably lose some speed as he goes along and settle in as a 55 runner. He has a below average arm, so he could be relegated to LF in professional baseball. His stock goes up quite a bit if he proves he can stick in CF, and the Cards think he can. What will carry him is his bat. Plummer is a left-handed swinger and thrower, who has moving parts in his setup, but it’s really just a trigger mechanism and he has his hands in a natural hitting position as the pitch approaches. He really attacks the ball out front and has great extension on his front leg. A bit of a leg kick and stride, I think there are some mechanical tweaks that can be made to keep his timing more consistent. He likes the ball down and really attacks the ball down. On pitches up he looks up-the-middle and the other way. Extremely fast bat speed and very good plate discipline, he has the ability to let breaking balls get deep and the power to jerk fastballs out of the park. There is a lot of potential with this hitter and some projection to go as he hails from a northern state. Furthermore, he played in an unusual high school league that starts hitters with a 1-1 count. I’m honestly not sure of the reason for that, but that made scouting him quite unique. A 55 runner, 45 throw, 50 glove guy may not sound like an upside prospect, when you consider the potential for a 65 hit and 55 power, you have a potential star if everything clicks.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take a finished product
Plummer was one of the very best players on the summer showcase circuit and went from a draft follow guy, to a guy expected to go in the 2nd round. He then had a subpar high school season and scouts were split on him. Coming from a northern high school and playing against extremely subpar competition, he will have a learning curve. He’ll be a slow mover who will need to make a few tweaks to his swing to make more consistent contact and just get professional at bats against pitchers not throwing 80 mph tops. I like the player, but he has to hit, so there is quite a bit of risk here. Signed for slot.



Round 1C. What the Cards did: Grab a pop-up high school righty
Jake Woodford (10-28-96) is a guy who had as much late helium as just about anyone. He’s a guy who has pitched at the World Championships, then for high school powerhouse Tampa Plant, but was also seen as a very good prospect who would excel in college moreso than a guy who would go round one.
When you see his 6-5, 210 lb frame you can see the projection he has in his arm, then you factor in that he has performed well on a national stage during both the summer circuit and at the high school level, you begin to think it might be the draftnik community that was too low on Woodford rather than him being a real pop-up prospect. The velocity has ticked up to 93 and t95, but it’s the fact he holds that velocity deep into games, commands it low in the zone, and has great downward movement that makes him so tough. Woodford also shows a feel for a changeup and the makings of a plus slider. He’s athletic in his motion and repeats it well.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take the proverbial strikeout arm
Woodford will profile as a 7.5 k/9 type who gets a ton of ground balls and throws a lot of strikes. He’s a guy whose upside will fall somewhere in the 3/4 range of a rotation and if the changeup doesn’t develop he could ultimately end up a reliever. I really like Woodford’s timing, trunk turn, extension, and deception. What I would like to see him clean-up is the head movement. He jerks his head at release and that causes him to pull down and bury the ball quite a bit- especially his breaking stuff. There were arms I liked better at this spot, but he signed for slot at $1.8m, and that is always a consideration for draft picks under the current CBA. It’s possible the Cards saw the power sinker, velocity, frame, athleticism, projection and thought the talent outweighed the price.


Round 2. What the Cards did: Take a power upside bat
Bryce Denton is another polarizing draft prospect who saw his range from top-half of the 1st round to the 3rd round. Those who love Denton see exceptional bat speed, arm strength, physicality, power projection, and the ability to stay at 3B. Those who don’t, see a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, a below average defender who will need to move to a corner OF spot and a guy with below average pitch recognition. The Cards split the difference and took him in the 2nd round and signed him to a very reasonable $1.2m deal. Very young for his class, and shares a birthday with yours truly (8-1-97), though the year is different.

What the Cards didn’t do: Play it safe
Taking high school players with three consecutive picks is nearly unheard from the Cards, and the fact they took three guys who all have significant risk is surprising. I honestly love the approach the Cards took and feel they did their homework on what the price tag would be for each player they selected and made the puzzle fit together nicely.

Denton has an aggressive swing that has some uppercut to it. He is extremely timing based, and when he gets out of whack he really gets out on his front foot and rolls over for ground balls a lot. When he’s going well, he makes a lot of hard contact, produces excellent loft on the ball, and can hit it out to all areas of the park. He really clears his hips and creates torque similar to a golfer who drives the ball 300 yards. Loves the ball up, and will really put a jolt in it when he catches up. He’ll have to learn what is too far up in the pro’s, but I love the aggression. Right-handed swinger who is average athletically and with a plus arm. I see the potential for a 50 hit, 65 power, 45 glove, 60 arm, 45 run, 3B prospect if all goes right. That’s a star as well.


Round 3. What the Cards did: Draft a body beautiful college bat.
Harrison Bader (6-3-94) is a name most who follow college baseball are quite familiar with. He was a big-time recruit to Florida, who grew in college from a 5-10, 165 lb kid to a 6’, 195 lb man. Another prospect who is young for his class, Bader has the type of all-around game that the first two hitters do not. A 55 runner, 50 arm type who played LF at Florida, I’d like to see him given a shot in CF. Something I find weird with Bader when I was watching him is the fact he hits with a different swing in batting practice than in games. In batting practice he has a wide stance and doesn’t take a stride. In games he has a timing stride and gets on his front foot far more often. He has the hands and bat speed to hit out of the spread stance, so I’d like to see him try that more often in actual games.

What the Cards didn’t do: Draft a ton of projection.
Bader is nearly maxed out physically and has already made big strides in this area before now. He’s a 45 hit, 55 power, 55 speed, 50 glove, 50 arm type if all goes right. That’s a good player in CF, but a 4th OF’er in LF. I like the pick given the spot, the fact he signed for under-slot at $400k, and the Cards need more bats.


Round 3C. What the Cards did: Take a better prospect than Trevor Megill.
Jordan Hicks was taken with the pick given as compensation for failing to sign Trevor Megill last year. Hicks is a loose, athletic righty who has a smooth motion that he repeats easily. Ball appears to come out of his shoulder, which lends itself to some deception and allows his 91-93 t95 mph fastball to play way up. He’s a fastball/slurve type who will probably end up a reliever in the long run. Had a commitment to Tulane and signed for $600k.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take a sure thing.
Hicks was a popup prospect who ended up going higher than I expected. The Cards love athleticism in their pitchers and Hicks has that in spades. He is a lump of clay right now with whom you need to mold a breaking ball from scratch, but there is excellent arm speed here, which is usually a precursor to throwing a good breaking ball. This isn’t who I would have taken here, but at least he’s a better arm than Megill, and cheaper too.


Round 4. What the Cards did: Take a versatile bat.
Paul DeJong is someone I’m quite familiar with, seeing as how he played in the Valley with my beloved Missouri State Bears. He’s a guy who has battled injuries for much of his career- particularly the leg variety- and that probably spells the end of his catching career. That said, he can function as a third catcher, play an adequate 2B/3B/1B/corner OF spot. His one plus potential tool is his power. He’s a tad bat speed deficient in my eyes, but he has a knack for squaring balls up. All he has done in college is hit the ball.

What the Cards didn’t do: Draft a toolshed.
DeJong is a bit older (8-2-1993), average sized (6-1, 195), and not a great athlete. His carrying card is his bat, his ability to play multiple positions, and the fact he should hit for a bit of power. Signed for a relatively inexpensive $200k, I’m happy with this combination of future utility value, affordability, and power potential.


Round 5. What the Cards did: Take a velocity flier
Ryan Helsley is admittedly an unknown to me. His big calling card is a high velocity four seam fastball that he likes to use up in the zone. He also throws a curveball that I know very little about.

What the Cards didn’t do: Maximize the value.
If you’re going to take a DII flier on a kid who is most likely a reliever, you don’t want to have to use a 5th round pick and spend 225k to do it. Already 21 (7-18-94).

The Cards no doubt have much more information than I do about the pick, and sturdy 6-2, 205 lb pitcher with a plus fastball and a 13.43 k/9 must have something to work with.

Round 6: What the Cards did: Take another reliever.
Jacob Evans is a lefty throwing college reliever out of Oklahoma. Well built (6-2, 215), with average velocity, plus control, and a bit of deception in his motion. He throws from a ¾ arm slot and has a slow breaking ball that breaks away from lefties and down. Really only a two pitch pitcher, though he does have a changeup.

What the Cards didn’t do: Draft a starter
Evans is a reliever all the way, and probably a LOOGY if he makes it. He signed for 150k, so this wasn’t a money saver pick. Another pick I’m not overly fond of, honestly. Drop and drive mechanics, but gives righties a good long look at the ball and will need to develop a changeup to get out opposite hand hitters.


Round 7: What the Cards did: Add catching depth
Jesse Jenner is a guy who has bounced around some. He started out at Cal State Fullerton, went Juco, then ended up at San Diego. He produced decent numbers, but he doesn’t appear to have the tools to hit professional pitching. He’s known almost solely for his catch-and-throw skills.

What the Cards didn’t do: Draft a prospect
The selection of Jenner was purely about being a senior sign. Signed for 5k, he’ll operate as organizational depth. When you take three high schoolers in a row, then three more in the top-10 rounds, you have to take some signability guys.

Round 8: What the Cards did: Take a pitchability high schooler.
Ian Oxnevad has always been an elite performer, but this year his velocity took a step forward, where he went from a guy who was expected to be a very good college arm, to a legitimate professional prospect. Tall and fairly athletic (6-4, 205), the hope is there could be a bit more there with Oxnevad, and definitely the belief he can hold that velocity deep into games as he gains strength. Has a great feel for pitching- especially for a high school pitcher- and has a very good changeup combined with a plus slider. Generally, the Cardinals have preferred curveballs to sliders due to the belief they place less strain on the arm. A tall lefty with a chance to combine two average pitches with a plus pitch and above average command and feel is a BOTR type at the very least.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take a cheap sign
The northwest prospect had a strong commitment to Oregon State and cost 500k to sign. That is the fifth highest bonus given to any Cards pick. There’s something here, but he needs to miss more bats to stay a starter. Mechanics remind me of Kaminsky a bit, though he relies on timing and I think there is more there if they teach him to use his legs better and sync up his hands with his landing point.


Round 9. What the Cards did: Take a guy I’d never heard of.
Andrew Brodbeck attended Flagler College. Now, I pride myself on my college athletics’ knowledge, but I had never heard of Flagler College. He destroyed the league he played in, showing an intriguing blend of power and speed.

What the Cards didn’t do: Punt the pick.
The Cards are known for finding guys with a chance to make it after the top few rounds and this guy looks to at least have a chance to reach AA. From there, you need a little luck and opportunity, but if you make it to that level and perform, you’ve got a chance. Hits a bit knock kneed and has to free his hips to really turn on a ball, but I really like where he gets to once he uncoils. I’d expect some changes to his stance and setup, but there are natural hitting tools there.



Round 11. What the Cards did: Take an arm strength guy
Paul Salazar got up to 95 this spring and sat 91-93 with an extremely athletic motion that has shown feel for breaking pitches and a changeup. Salazar was someone I knew about- but as a hitter. He was committed to Arkansas Little-Rock, so he wasn’t seen as a huge hitting prospect. Once he stepped on the mound though, he started to really get buzz.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take a fast mover.
Salazar will be a guy that will take a long time to develop, and he basically has to be built from the ground up. He truly is a poor man’s Jack Flaherty in the sense that he went from a position prospect, to a much better pitching prospect. The Cards love taking position players and making them pitching prospects. Signed for 200k, so he seems to be a worthwhile selection.

Round 12. What the Cards did: Take a projectable lefty.
Jacob Schlesener is a guy that intrigues me for a couple of reasons: 1. He was committed to Arkansas and I am not a fan of their baseball program. 2. He played his high school baseball about two miles from my front door. You see a 6-3 lefty weighing only 175 lbs and already throwing 93, you get excited for what he could become. He throws a big breaking curveball that really needs to tighten up the spin. He is lanky and growing into his frame, and you can tell by the fact that his command comes and goes. For a kid that signed for 350k, he didn’t really have a great year.

What the Cards didn’t do: Take more than a lottery ticket.
Schlesener is the type of kid you can dream on, but is one of those longshot types who really survives more on natural ability than he does baseball skill. Worthwhile gamble on the arm, and being left-handed


Round 17. What the Cards did: Draft intriguing bat.
Chris Chinea is a right-handed hitter from LSU with a bit of pop. He has a chance to play C in the minor leagues, and if he can stick there he has a chance to be a prospect. If he has to move to 1B, he’s an org. guy.

What the Cards didn’t do: Draft a walk God.
Chinea has a contact approach, and likes to swing the bat, so he neither walks often, not strikes out much. Built like a catcher at 5-11, 220.


Overall: What an interesting draft from a Cards standpoint. There was a big emphasis placed on bat speed rather than pure athleticism. The Cards didn’t shy away from shorter, stocky type hitters either. There draft was such a scout draft, that I am fascinated to know if the Cards saw something in an undervalued type in this draft, simply don’t place an emphasis on height with hitters, or loved the players selected in particular.

Something additional that was a little different was the high risk/high reward approach the Cards had throughout the draft. While it’s important to take high ceiling guys later in the draft as a fallback in case you can’t sign a few high round picks, the Cards seemed to take most every falling prospect out there. Curiously, it started in the 10th round with Kep Brown, a slugging 1B/corner OF type committed to the U, he was seen as a near impossible sign. What was surprising was the fact the Cards took him in a round that impacts the bonus pool. I wanted to reserve judgment on the pick, and see how the pieces fit together, and thankfully, the drafting of Kep Brown impacted our draft exactly zero. There were no additional players we would have been able to sign by taking a college senior in that slot. It could be as simple as the Cards wanted to start that relationship with Kep in case they end up drafting him again, while simultaneously ensuring it was the Cards or no one as far as signing to go pro. After the 10th, the Cards continued to stockpile falling prospects, taking TCU bound SS Ryan Merrill, Kansas State bound C Josh Rolette, Oregon State bound SS Cadyn Grenier (a guy I really like), Pacific OF Gio Brusa (whom I feel made a mistake not signing), UCLA bound RHP Kyle Molnar, TCU RHP Mitchell Traver, Notre Dame bound St. Louisian Matt Vierling, Texas Tech bound LHP Aaron Coates, Oregon bound RHP Parker Kelly.

I’m a big fan of the approach the Cards took in this draft- even if I don’t agree with every single player taken. They stocked the lower minors with higher upside hitters, lots of velocity on the mound, and a few under-the-radar type picks as well. In a draft devoid of hitters- especially at the collegiate level- I think the Cards added half a dozen players who will fit in with the top-21. It’ll be interesting to see if the change in approach was due to Correa, or if this is the start of a trend towards higher upside picks.

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haltz
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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by haltz »

I was looking forward to this. Excellent, as usual.

I think I remember you or someone mentioning the Cards taking kids that are Cards fans as almost a signing strategy this year. Looked up Andrew Brodbeck and Flagler College (St Augustine, Fl apparently).
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Outstanding! Quick question about Arkansas. Are you of the opinion that they ruin pitchers or is it something else. I remember a couple years ago, I heard some not so soft whispers about how people in the pros were worried that Arkansas may have set Ryne Stanek back quite a bit.....or is it something else that you don't like?

phins
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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by phins »

haltz wrote:I was looking forward to this. Excellent, as usual.

I think I remember you or someone mentioning the Cards taking kids that are Cards fans as almost a signing strategy this year. Looked up Andrew Brodbeck and Flagler College (St Augustine, Fl apparently).
Yup, that was me. The Cards took a bunch of kids that were Cards fans after the 10th round and ended up signing one of them (Schlesener). Most of the kids after the 10th round were backup plans in case they didn't sign Oxnevard, Denton, Woodford, etc.

phins
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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:Outstanding! Quick question about Arkansas. Are you of the opinion that they ruin pitchers or is it something else. I remember a couple years ago, I heard some not so soft whispers about how people in the pros were worried that Arkansas may have set Ryne Stanek back quite a bit.....or is it something else that you don't like?
College baseball changed their rules based on a practice that Arkansas and a few other programs were doing- they would over recruit kids and then cut them at semester break. It really had a negative impact on kids that expected to have a home with Arkansas and I believe if you give a kid a scholarship, he's on your team for at least that full year, rather than cutting them at semester break because you over signed.

Add to that the way they treat their arms (extreme approach/belief in winning games at the college level regardless of if they may have a professional chance or not), and then the way their fans treated the Missouri State fans during a Super Regional they had no business hosting (or winning), and it'll take me some time to come around to liking them again.

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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

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as always, thanks

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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by Tim »

Arkansas really ruined Dallas Keuchel

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Re: 2015 Cards Draft Wrapup

Post by Fat Strat »

awesome as usual, thanks for posting and for doing all the work.

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