Baseball Prospectus Cardinals top 10 prospects

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Magneto2.0
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Baseball Prospectus Cardinals top 10 prospects

Post by Magneto2.0 »

RHP Alex Reyes
RHP Jack Flaherty
OF Magneuris Sierra
LHP Marco Gonzales
LHP Tim Cooney
OF Nick Plummer
RHP Luke Weaver
SS Edmundo Sosa
OF Charlie Tilson
RHP Junior Fernandez
“Not only is this the most improved pitching prospect of 2015, this is one of the most improved pitching prospects I’ve ever seen.” — AL assistant General Manager.

I could just stop there, but I get paid by the word. Reyes’ stuff is filthy, starting with a true 80 fastball that will touch triple digits and sits 94-96 mph as easily as anyone can sit 94-96. It was the best fastball I saw in the Arizona Fall League, and he was pitching alongside such guys as Mauricio Cabrera and Ray Black. If you sit on that fastball, you take the risk of flailing away at his 12-6 curveball, and it will show moments where it looks like a double-plus pitch, even though it usually isn’t a strike. The changeup has actually regressed somewhat in his time in the Cardinal system, but it’s a competent third offering with late tumble and good arm speed.

Two things keep Reyes from being the best pitching prospect in baseball: his command, and Lucas Giolito. Reyes has a tendency to throw across his body, and while the action is repeated consistently, it limits his command and control around average levels. St. Louis is really good at working with this type of profile, and even as is it won’t keep him from starting.

Reyes will miss the first 50 games of 2016 because of a positive marijuana test, which could keep him from reaching St. Louis before the end of the year. It doesn’t change his overall outlook, however, as Reyes projects as a true top-of-the-rotation starter who can miss a ton of bats and give you 200-plus quality innings.

Bret Sayre's Fantasy Take: If there’s been a theme across these fantasy takes it’s that the value of the starting pitcher with non-impact upside is having a bit of a course correction. Of course, this does not apply in the least to Reyes, who has SP1 potential—and that’s not something that gets thrown around lightly. It’s not difficult to envision him as a 220-plus strikeout horse with very strong ratios (more ERA impact than WHIP).
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/90 or later)

Carlos Martinez
Alex Reyes
Michael Wacha
Stephen Piscotty
Kolten Wong
Trevor Rosenthal
Randal Grichuk
Jack Flaherty
Magneuris Sierra
Marco Gonzales
The Cardinals have their share of young stars, but even more impressive is the quantity of quality young players already in St. Louis. Around the league, most U25 lists feature a few players from the big league roster. With St. Louis, six of the top seven players on the Cardinals list are already role 50 or better big league players, and the other guy is one of just a handful of minor leaguers capable of developing into a true No. 1 starter. The Cardinals are pretty good at this draft and development thing.

For all the talent available, it’s not the easiest group to rank. The Cardinals have young contributors around the diamond, in the rotation, and throughout the bullpen. You could change the order of the top seven players considerably, and I wouldn’t argue too much.

Fresh off a breakout season that saw him earn his first all-star appearance, Martinez heads the Cardinals list for now. Featuring a mid-90s fastball that regularly reaches 98, along with a boomerang slider and sharp changeup, Martinez has the tools to head a big league rotation. Just as importantly, Martinez’s command and feel for the craft have come a long way in recent years. He’s comfortable adding and subtracting velocity and movement, and he’s also able to move the ball effectively around the zone. Already very difficult to square up, Martinez could take another leap by limiting free passes and tightening his command further. The shoulder strain that prematurely ended his 2015 campaign is worrisome, although there’s no indication that he won’t be ready for spring training this year.

Wacha was surging towards his healthiest and most productive big league season before a miserable September inflated his ERA and dampened otherwise solid peripherals. Something was clearly amiss: he surrendered seven of his 19 homers in his last five starts, and walked four hitters three times in his last four outings after having not allowed that many in a game all season. Was he tired? Was a case of spinal tilt to blame? It’s hard to say definitively, but if September was an aberration, he’s a good No. 3 at the very least.

Piscotty performed well in his first taste of the big leagues. He settled into right field nicely, and he used a compact, fluid stroke to lash line drives all over the field, pounding 26 extra base hits in 63 games. It was an impressive debut, and intriguingly, there’s room for growth in his game. While his swing isn’t conducive to big homer totals, there is more thunder in his bat than he’s shown thus far in his career, and his minor league walk and strikeout numbers were much better than the figures he posted in the majors. Put simply, he has the talent to become a first division regular and his tools give him more than one route to get there.

While not a star, Wong has established himself as a solid-average second basemen capable of impacting all phases of the game. He’s an average hitter with just enough pop to keep pitchers honest, and, game four of the 2013 World Series notwithstanding, he’s a pretty good base runner too. Wong may not have a ton of all star appearances ahead of him, but he should reliably anchor the Cardinals middle infield for the foreseeable future.

If I could sign up for Rosenthal’s 2015 season for each of the next three years, I’d be comfortable bumping him up a spot or two on this list. It doesn’t work that way though, and relievers are a volatile lot. With a fastball that regularly reaches triple digits and a changeup that just murders lefties, Rosenthal has the pitch mix of an elite reliever. If his control jumps half a grade, he could be the class of National League closers.

Grichuk is perhaps the most divisive player on this list. An aggressive hitter, Grichuk rarely worked deep counts and struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances last year. His power is real though—if not quite as extraordinary as he flashed in 2015—and the reverse platoon split he posted portends well for his first full season of everyday duty. It remains to be seen whether he’ll get on base often enough to be better than an average regular, or how long the Cardinals will want to use him as their starting center fielder. Either way, following the offseason departures of Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, and Peter Bourjos, Grichuk will be holding down the fort out there on opening day. Whether he grows into the role or forces the Cardinals to adjust on the fly is one of the most intriguing storylines of the upcoming season.

This being St. Louis, the names above are hardly the only talented U25 players on hand. Sam Tuivailala was an effective reliever in limited duty last season and, riding an 80 fastball and a curve that flashes plus, he should earn an expanded role this season. Matt Bowman and Jayson Aquino haven’t debuted yet, but both could also see time out of the bullpen this year. Aquino is a lefty with a good sinker and average offspeed pitches. It’s not the most exciting skillset, but there’s swingman upside at least. Bowman is a failed starter who the Cardinals drafted with the fourth pick of the Rule 5 draft. If his three pitch mix plays better in short stints, he could earn a living as a middle reliever.

Aledmys Diaz reached Triple-A last season, and while he doesn’t have any standout tools, he has more than enough range and arm to hold a utility job, and he might have just enough stick to eventually start at short. Michael Ohlman can hit and is currently the third catcher on the club’s 40-man roster, though some evaluators think his size will force him off of the position sooner rather than later.

This is a staggering collection of young talent. While a few critical offseason departures have pushed the Cardinals below Chicago, and perhaps Pittsburgh, in the NL Central hierarchy for the moment, St. Louis is well-positioned to make a run at their long-time rivals in the coming years. - Brendan Gawlowski

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Jocephus
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Cardinals top 10 prospects

Post by Jocephus »

its fun to read positive things

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go birds
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Cardinals top 10 prospects

Post by go birds »

Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=28308

Kinda surprised to see its free reading, but then again i dont visit BP too often.

Really nothing to get excited about in the system after reyes it seems. Just a lot of useful parts (which still has value).

Really hoping some of our hitters from the 2015 draft pan out

jim
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Cardinals top 10 prospects

Post by jim »

Diaz really opened some eyes in the AFL, I'm surprised he isn't listed as a top 10.

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