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 Post subject: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 5 18, 2:29 pm 
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Below is our list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. Scouting summaries were compiled with information provided by available data, industry sources, as well as from our own observations.

Note that prospects are ranked by number but also lie within tiers demarcated by their Future Value grades. The FV grade is more important than the ordinal rankings. For example, the gap between prospect No. 5 on this list, Fernando Tatis Jr., and prospect No. 35, Corbin Burnes, is 30 spots, and there’s a substantial difference in talent there. The gap between Ke’Bryan Hayes (No. 56) and Leody Taveras (No. 86), meanwhile, is also 30 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. Below the list is a brief rundown of names of 50 FV prospects who didn’t make the 100. This same comparative principle applies to them.

As a quick explanation, variance means the range of possible outcomes in the big leagues, in terms of peak season. If we feel like a prospect could reasonably have a best big league season of anywhere from one to five wins/WAR, then that would be “high” whereas someone like Colin Moran where it’s something like two to three wins/WAR is “low.” High variance can be read as good since it allows for lots of ceiling, or bad since it allows for a lower floor. Your risk tolerance could lead you to sort by variance within a given FV tier if you feel strongly about variance. Here is a primer about the connection between FV and WAR.


https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 5 18, 11:00 pm 
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It was interesting to me that they have Tyler O'Neil as our second best prospect (I definitely wouldn't take him over Flaherty).

They also didn't have any of the prospects we traded on the top-100 list, which is something I agree with.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 6 18, 8:43 pm 
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phins wrote:
It was interesting to me that they have Tyler O'Neil as our second best prospect (I definitely wouldn't take him over Flaherty).

They also didn't have any of the prospects we traded on the top-100 list, which is something I agree with.

Quote:
12:16
Jake: You have Tyler O’Neill higher than any list I’ve seen. What makes you say he’s likely to reach base at an above-average rate?

12:17
Kiley McDaniel: Dude hits tanks, has massive raw, draws walks and has improved each year, especially in the 2nd half of 2017. Again, not a long list of guys that fit that description and O’Neill lucked out that his skillset is more relevant than ever right as he’s coming up. Doesn’t hurt that he’s with STL who has an excellent record of developing bats, too.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-to ... ects-chat/

They seem to like O'Neill a lot. Not so sure about that last line about an excellent record developing bats. Marp and who else?


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 7 18, 8:51 am 
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Craig definitely, and to a lesser extent Adams and Gyorko.

If DeJong doesn't pull a 2017 Diaz, then I think you could put him in that category as well.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 7 18, 8:58 am 
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Gyorko wasn't developed by the Cardinals.

You can probably include Grichuk and Piscotty to some extent. They've done okay but I wouldn't say great.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 7 18, 9:56 am 
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Seems that Bader is a consensus not-top 100 prospect after being in their last year.

If he isn't a top 100 this year he shouldn't have been there last year. He's was basically the same guy.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 8 18, 3:38 pm 
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salukifan2 wrote:
Seems that Bader is a consensus not-top 100 prospect after being in their last year.

If he isn't a top 100 this year he shouldn't have been there last year. He's was basically the same guy.


Harrison Bader never should've been a top-100 prospect. That said, they have different people compiling the list this year and I like what they've done.

I'm a Jack Flaherty truther, but they make great points about O'Neil, who does the two things I love my prospects to do: Get on-base, hit the crap out of the ball when they make contact.

If he figures out how to make better contact after his swing changes, then he's a legitimate star. We got that for Marco Gonzales. Wow.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 17 18, 12:00 pm 
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phins wrote:
If he figures out how to make better contact after his swing changes, then he's a legitimate star. We got that for Marco Gonzales. Wow.

Is he different at this stage from where Grichuk was, which people said similar things about? Not asking rhetorically to make a point. Genuinely curious.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 21 18, 10:25 am 
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Hoot45 wrote:
phins wrote:
If he figures out how to make better contact after his swing changes, then he's a legitimate star. We got that for Marco Gonzales. Wow.

Is he different at this stage from where Grichuk was, which people said similar things about? Not asking rhetorically to make a point. Genuinely curious.


O'Neil has tons more power and is capable of drawing a high walk rate. Grichuk probably has an edge defensively, but since Grichuk never really developed into the exceptional defender (even in a corner) that he was capable of, it's closer than you migh think. O'Neil could be a sold-plus defender in a corner and even provide ok-solid defense in CF for a stretch.

I don't think Grichuk is a good comp for O'Neil. I think you look to someone like Jay Bruce as a fair O'Neil comp in terms of ceiling.

Actually.... Marcel Ozuna might be a good comp, too. Bruce was one of the top-rated hitters in the minors coming up. O'Neil can't claim that at all.


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 Post subject: Re: FG Top 100 prospects
PostPosted: February 21 18, 11:11 am 
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Glad we have it in writing finally that Kelly is overrated.

Really wanted us to trade him this offseason. Especially with Knizner on the rise.


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