Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
Post Reply
User avatar
mikechamp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10132
Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
Location: Southwestern Illinois

Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on February 6. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

You can read all about the rest of the division this week, as there were no Cardinals questions. I included 1 bonus Q&A about deadline flips. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 17582.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Matt Mervis for Shane Bieber...who says no?

Steve Adams
I'm down on Bieber's trade value but that's still not getting it done for me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Emmanuel Clase to the Cubs still on the table?

Steve Adams
I don't think Clase to anyone was ever "on the table" in the sense that it was likely. The Guardians listened to offers on him, presumably had a sky-high asking price, and haven't found an offer to their liking so they'll very likely just keep him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Should the Marlins just sign Anderson or trade for Adames?

Steve Adams
Between the two options, signing Tim Anderson makes more sense for the Marlins. Adames would command a huge return and then just leave after one season to go test free agency, where Miami surely isn't going to pony up and make the type of offer he'll receive elsewhere.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
With Burnes going to Baltimore, where does that leave the NL Central race?

Steve Adams
Pretty wide open.

Who will win the NL Central?

Cardinals (19.0% | 198 votes)

Brewers (9.9% | 103 votes)

Reds (35.2% | 367 votes)

Cubs (29.3% | 306 votes)

Pirates (6.7% | 70 votes)

Total Votes: 1,044

I think people are generally underrating Milwaukee, who I had as the favorite pre-Burnes trade, but it's hard to project as much confidence in them now. I think they'll be better than people expect but feel it's pretty close between STL, MIL, CHI and CIN (sorry Pirates fans). We'll see how the rest of the offseason plays out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who is still in for Ha Seong Kim? Padres should move him.

Steve Adams
At this point I think it's likelier that they keep him, but any of the Jays, Tigers, Cubs make some sense to plug him in at 3B. Mariners too, though getting Polanco tightens up the infield a bit.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I can flip a pitching deal to Cincy to get Noelvi Marte back, right?

Steve Adams
There could very well be scenarios where that'd be possible, but I imagine that by this point in the winter, those have been explored and discussed without the two teams agreeing on valuation.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Chapman's two possible destinations are the Giants and Cubs, but the Cubs are more focused on Bellinger. There seems to a huge conflict of interest with Scott Boras pitting the two teams against each other for Chapman. If the Cubs sign Chapman, it basically eliminates them from Bellinger with no clear spot or leverage for Bellinger. Thoughts?

Steve Adams
I've lost count of the number of times I've thought the market for free agent X was basically confined to 1-2 teams and then seen a random entrant jump into the mix late. The Cubs and Giants are obvious fits for both Bellinger and Chapman -- probably the most obvious (though I'd also throw the Jays in on Chapman). But one spring injury, one trade to free up some money or create a need elsewhere... things shake loose quickly.

One of the remaining Boras guys will probably take a "disappointing" contract, but even when that happens they usually end up back on the market a year later and get paid. I know fans love to root for Boras Corp to fail, but I don't really get the animosity and hatred. And more often than not, they end up cashing in.

Even when Moustakas (random example) wound up having to settle for 6.5 after rejecting a QO, he went out and made 10 the next year and 4/64 the following offseason. Not the worst outcome. Kendrys Morales and Dallas Keuchel both wound up getting paid after going the short-term route under Boras one offseason as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Joey Bart, Casey Schmitt, and a pitching prospect for Adames - who turns it down?

Steve Adams
Unless that pitching prospect is Kyle Harrison (or maybe Carson Whisenhunt I guess), that doesn't move the needle. Bart's trade value is negligible, and Schmitt's debut was ugly.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Surprise, the O's signed Montgomery and traded Kremer + prospects for Devin Williams. Now John Means is their #5.

Steve Adams
I think you're underestimating Williams' trade value, but I suppose it depends on your definition of "prospects." If you're talking Mayo+, sure. If you're saying like... Kyle Stowers and Justin Armbruster or something, no.

But to your broader point, that's kind of what I was alluding to before. Burnes is a great start but Baltimore's system is so deep and the core is so strong. Like... they could very easily go get Dylan Cease without weakening their big league roster much. Or sign Montgomery if ownership allows, sure. There's just room for more.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What is the trade value on Devin Williams? Is it basically the Hader-to-Padres package, or in that range?

Steve Adams
You're getting two full seasons of Williams at a lower financial price point than Hader had. He should command more in a trade than Hader did.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts on the Junis signing? Seems like a potential under the radar signing.

Steve Adams
I like the price for them. I was the "low" guy on Junis when we were doing our Top 50 free agent list (Tim and Anthony were more bullish), but that was more because I didn't think he'd get two years than because I disliked the pitcher in particular. It's a nice move that I think will pay off more than a lot of people realize. And if not... well, they didn't risk much to find out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What one additional move do the Reds need to make to be considered leader in their division?

Steve Adams
I'd have liked to see them condense some of the infield and/or SP depth they have into a more concrete upgrade in the rotation. I like the Montas play for them, but Nick Martinez doesn't do much for me there. He's probably an upgrade over some of the back-end guys they had in house, but not by a sizable margin. They felt like (or still feel like) the type of team that could really put together an interesting young players-for-young players swap to get one of the Marlins/Mariners SP.

I think a move like that's unlikely now -- but a clearer rotation upgrade alongside an upside play that I quite liked (Montas) would've made me feel more strongly about their division chances.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is the "he can be flipped for prospects" at the deadline a weak argument to sign someone? I say this as the Nats had to pay down Jeimer's salary last year (a guy who hit it big time) to merely get a lesser rated prospect(s). And this was the best possible outcome (see Dickerson for an actual bad outcome for the Nats). Thanks for the chat.

Steve Adams
I don't think so, especially not for a team in the Nationals' spot. There's something to be said for at least fielding a competent roster in the first half, and sure they had to pay some cash down to get the offer they liked from the Cubs, but that was pretty marginal cash and the amount they pay shouldn't matter anyhow.

You're probably never going to get a franchise-altering return for that type of deadline flip candidate, but good teams need good role players, and a lot of those guys can end up as future trade fodder themselves when the team is coming out of the rebuild.

When the only real downside is an already bad team that's spending well below its payroll ceiling "wastes" five or six million bucks on a veteran who ends up getting DFA'ed or released, the "risk" is pretty minimal.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Tags:

User avatar
Popeye_Card
GRB's most intelligent & humble poster
Posts: 29876
Joined: April 17 06, 11:25 am

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Popeye_Card »

I'm not sure why people are still high on the Brewers. They had a significantly below-average offense last year, and I don't know if Hoskins and Chourio are enough to turn it into a strength. On the pitching side, losing Burnes and Woodruff is a pretty big deal. Their starting pitching looks extremely pedestrian past Peralta, and while their bullpen is pretty good I don't think you can base a winning team on a bullpen being the only real strength.

I'll be surprised if they win more than 80 games.

Online
User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Puppy Murderer
Posts: 9334
Joined: April 25 06, 6:07 pm
Location: Across the River

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Transmogrified Tiger »

Popeye_Card wrote:
February 7 24, 2:23 pm
I'm not sure why people are still high on the Brewers. They had a significantly below-average offense last year, and I don't know if Hoskins and Chourio are enough to turn it into a strength. On the pitching side, losing Burnes and Woodruff is a pretty big deal. Their starting pitching looks extremely pedestrian past Peralta, and while their bullpen is pretty good I don't think you can base a winning team on a bullpen being the only real strength.

I'll be surprised if they win more than 80 games.
If they don't sell off any more important players like Adames or Williams, I think they're probably a shade too high but in the range of 'I get it even if I disagree'. The position player group has Yelich, Contreras, Hoskins, Adames, and likely positive contributions from Frelick, Chourio, and Ortiz. The bullpen has long been a strength and will continue to shorten games on the margins. The rotation is the weakest point but they have enough talent and depth to probably avoid collapse. They have the hallmarks of the team that spends a chunk of the first half of the season in 1st place or within a couple games and gets jazzed about contention, but then fades quickly enough to not buy at the deadline and potentially crater if anything significant goes wrong, ending with like 77 wins. That's actually about how I would describe the Reds too(though their roster has a different set of concerns), so anything that's a clear step down from the Cubs and Cardinals but roughly in line with the Reds feels fair to me.

User avatar
CardsofSTL
All Hail the GDT Master
Posts: 47817
Joined: April 26 11, 6:06 am
Location: Columbus, OH

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

I am never very high on the Brewers yet they have routinely outperformed my expectations. That is usually because of their excellent starting pitching the last few seasons; which this season I think you can admit is a bit more suspect. But they like we are playing in a [expletive] division so who knows what might happen wrt injuries etc.

Post Reply