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PostPosted: July 11 19, 10:41 am 
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go birds wrote:
He's OPSing .890 in 358 PAs at AA as a 20 year old.

That's good but we're supposed to ignore his earlier numbers because of a power surge at a small park? Haven't we been burned by prospects before with good Springfield numbers? I like him but he's got a couple years still, if not longer.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 10:43 am 
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no we're not ignoring his numbers prior to that. we're acknowledging that things are finally starting to click.

But on his current trajectory, a callup next year around june isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially with the current lack of actual talent on the mlb squad.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 11:02 am 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
go birds wrote:
He's OPSing .890 in 358 PAs at AA as a 20 year old.

That's good but we're supposed to ignore his earlier numbers because of a power surge at a small park? Haven't we been burned by prospects before with good Springfield numbers? I like him but he's got a couple years still, if not longer.


Along the same lines, Palm Beach is the exact opposite and is an extreme pitcher's park. Crappy results for a hitter in A+ are also not completely indicative of a player's talent level, just like MVP results are for a hitter in AA.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 12:14 pm 
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go birds wrote:
no we're not ignoring his numbers prior to that. we're acknowledging that things are finally starting to click.

But on his current trajectory, a callup next year around june isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially with the current lack of actual talent on the mlb squad.

Again, beware Springfield power numbers, especially for lefties.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 12:38 pm 
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InvincibleCakeEater wrote:
go birds wrote:
no we're not ignoring his numbers prior to that. we're acknowledging that things are finally starting to click.

But on his current trajectory, a callup next year around june isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially with the current lack of actual talent on the mlb squad.

Again, beware Springfield power numbers, especially for lefties.


he's a switch hitter and his left side is definitely his strongest split but...

9 homers from the left side, 4 from the right

8 homers at home, 5 away


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 12:59 pm 
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go birds wrote:
InvincibleCakeEater wrote:
go birds wrote:
no we're not ignoring his numbers prior to that. we're acknowledging that things are finally starting to click.

But on his current trajectory, a callup next year around june isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially with the current lack of actual talent on the mlb squad.

Again, beware Springfield power numbers, especially for lefties.


he's a switch hitter and his left side is definitely his strongest split but...

9 homers from the left side, 4 from the right

8 homers at home, 5 away


and OPS of 837 away; and again...he's 20.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 1:00 pm 
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go birds wrote:
InvincibleCakeEater wrote:
go birds wrote:
no we're not ignoring his numbers prior to that. we're acknowledging that things are finally starting to click.

But on his current trajectory, a callup next year around june isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially with the current lack of actual talent on the mlb squad.

Again, beware Springfield power numbers, especially for lefties.


he's a switch hitter and his left side is definitely his strongest split but...

9 homers from the left side, 4 from the right

8 homers at home, 5 away

Carlson is a really good prospect, but it would be smart to temper the enthusiasm w/r/t his power.


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PostPosted: July 11 19, 1:21 pm 
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Trea Turner is his ceiling.

Delino DeShields Jr. is his floor.

Best comp to me is Adam Eaton.


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PostPosted: July 12 19, 8:42 am 
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Really mind numbing stuff here. We’ve got folks poo-pooing the power of a guy leading the Texas league in Isolated Power all the while being 4 years younger than league average. Get a life.

Don’t come Carlson to a guy he is 5” taller than and outweighs by 30lbs (will probably be 40lbs ina year or two)?

Carlson’s calling cards when drafted were power, patience, a slick glove at 1B and a high baseball IQ. Power has been slower to develop, but he’s also been facing pitchers 3-5 years older than him his entire MiLB career.

At age 19 in the FSL Carlson hit 9hr
At age 20 in the FSL Yelich hit 12hr.


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PostPosted: July 12 19, 9:20 am 
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salukifan2 wrote:
Really mind numbing stuff here. We’ve got folks poo-pooing the power of a guy leading the Texas league in Isolated Power all the while being 4 years younger than league average. Get a life.

Don’t come Carlson to a guy he is 5” taller than and outweighs by 30lbs (will probably be 40lbs ina year or two)?

Carlson’s calling cards when drafted were power, patience, a slick glove at 1B and a high baseball IQ. Power has been slower to develop, but he’s also been facing pitchers 3-5 years older than him his entire MiLB career.

At age 19 in the FSL Carlson hit 9hr
At age 20 in the FSL Yelich hit 12hr.


I feel like this is a case for one of those "erroneous on all counts" gifs.

The average age in the Texas League is not 24-25. That's about the average age across all of minor league baseball. AA players average 22-23. Yes, he's still EXTREMELY young for his level, but not 5 years younger.

His calling card when he was drafted was (somewhat) his IQ but more his receptiveness and willingness to accept coaching. He was considered an overdraft in the first round, as he would sign for slot or even under slot, allowing the team to overspend on the other guys we took in the first round (Delvin Perez, Dakota Hudson, Connor Jones) or elsewhere in the draft. Randy's team recognized future power potential as he got older, but it's not like he was hitting moon shots as a 16 year old like Bryce Harper.

He was drafted as an OF, not 1B, although he played 1B for most of his HS career (as well as being a pitcher).

Quote:
Carlson did not rank on MLB.com's Top 200 Draft prospect list, but he put scouts on notice with a terrific senior season at Elk Grove (Calif.) High School. The switch-hitter, who made the transition from first base to the outfield this year, batted .407 with 40 RBIs, 13 doubles and nine homers in 36 games.

Carlson also contributed on the mound, where he finished 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA. In his team's championship game, he threw a four-hit complete game and struck out 10. In four years on the high school varsity team, which his father, Jeff, coached, Carlson captured three championships.

The Cardinals intend to develop him as an outfielder, an opportunity that Carlson said he would welcome.

"He's very, very young," scouting director Randy Flores said. "It'll be interesting to see in four or five years what this kid looks like. [He's] an exciting young [player] with power-hitting potential. He gained steam as the season has gone on."

Carlson, at 6-foot-3, 195-pounds, is projected to add more power as he finishes growing. He produced better power numbers from the left side this season, though that was more due to opportunity. Carlson has been switch-hitting since the age of 5.

"I grew up at the baseball field," Carlson explained. "I was a little guy, a natural right-handed hitter, and I saw some of the older players in high school -- and I'm 5 years old -- I see them hitting left-handed, so I just start hitting left-handed, too. Ever since then, I've just been switch-hitting."


https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-draf ... -183131938


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