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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 17 17, 12:05 pm 
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Middle, I think this is a key distinction in where our opinions differ, because you're clearly much higher on IT's actual value than I am: I would say that 2010-11 MVP season Derrick Rose is a significantly better player than 2016-17 Isaiah Thomas and as we saw then, was completely swallowed by the Heat's perimeter D (which was admittedly miles better than the Cavs).

I find your distinctions about age to be unimportant. Young teams can win and the difference between 25 and 29 isn't meaningful. That said, if are matters to you and we're to belabor my comparison of the 10-11 Bulls to this year's Celtics, then this year's Cavs are more "experienced" than that Heat team as well, having actually won a title.

themiddle54 wrote:
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
BOOGIE IS A PELICAN I NEED A MOMENT


Still feeling it?

Since the trade they lost all but
-a game that he was suspended and didn't play
-a game that he fouled out
-a game that he was benched in the stretch
-a game where he shot 9-22 from the floor, 0-5 from 3P and 4-10 from the stripe but POR as a team couldn't put it in the ocean

They went from 2.5 out of the last playoff spot to 6 back since adding him.

Yikes.

It's obviously all 3, but I'm leaning more towards Alvin Gentry is a bad coach than flawed personnel chemistry and learning curve in the blame equation. Never been a fan of Gentry.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 17 17, 12:28 pm 
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The current Celtics are a different team than the '11 Bulls. And the NBA is different now, too, making it sorta tough to compare. Even though it's only six years ago, can you imagine a team like that Bulls team, that allowed 91 PPG on D, to exist now? The way teams move the ball and spread the floor, don't attempt rebounding on the offensive end, and completely stay away from iso-ball, 91 is unheard of. The Jazz are slow and grinding and play elite D and they allow 5 more PPG. That Bulls team was great while scoring only 98 PPG. In today's game if you did that you'd be a .500 team.

So to have a player like Thomas who spreads the floor, can drive and score, and can distribute is as valuable in today's game as it was to have a player like Rose who defended well and could go to the rim off of an iso play in 2011, IMO. Perhaps Rose was a little better then at what he did than Thomas is at what he does now. Perhaps not. Rose was credited with .208 WS/48 that year. Thomas is at .239 this year, and most metrics like Thomas better. I think it's awfully close and wouldn't say that it's anything close to obvious or un-arguable that Rose was better. Though I know, to turn the emotional investment card around on you, that it's hard making this argument about Rose with Bulls fans.

That Bulls team was .500 each of the two years before '11 and was a terrible team the year prior to that. No one on that team had experience playing playoff basketball. This years Celtics team has already had the experience of being swept by LeBron's Cavs in the playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 17 17, 1:43 pm 
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themiddle54 wrote:
No one on that team had experience playing playoff basketball.

Luol Deng, baby! He was a part of those feisty Skiles playoff teams that did the exact same thing the Thibs teams did. Play your starters a ton of minutes, slow the game down, go all out and then get beat in the playoffs by more talented teams, usually featuring LeBron. In fact, those Skiles teams overachieved so much, and Luol played so well in the playoffs, that he was deemed "untouchable" and a mutually agreed upon deal for still in his peak Kobe fell through.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 17 17, 2:42 pm 
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The Last Word

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themiddle54 wrote:
Broncos, Westbrook only leads the league in PER because of his audaciously high (and very bad for his team) usage rate. Because what Westbrook does is bad for his team but good for his individual PER does not make Westbrook a good player. There's nuance in there that's not in, say, WAR for baseball, when someone with a 10 WAR is accumulating value by taking 1600 PA while someone with a better wOBA stands wide open in the on-deck circle.

When we are talking about these three PG, Wall Kyrie and Thomas, they have usage rates between 30.1-32.9% and are in the same ballpark. Westbrook is at 42.9%.





How is usage rate calculated into PER?

I know that things like missed shots and turnovers are "subtracted" from a player's PER, so I assume that the "bad things" that Westbrook is doing for his team are already factored in.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 18 17, 1:36 am 
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Socnorb11 wrote:
themiddle54 wrote:
Broncos, Westbrook only leads the league in PER because of his audaciously high (and very bad for his team) usage rate. Because what Westbrook does is bad for his team but good for his individual PER does not make Westbrook a good player. There's nuance in there that's not in, say, WAR for baseball, when someone with a 10 WAR is accumulating value by taking 1600 PA while someone with a better wOBA stands wide open in the on-deck circle.

When we are talking about these three PG, Wall Kyrie and Thomas, they have usage rates between 30.1-32.9% and are in the same ballpark. Westbrook is at 42.9%.





How is usage rate calculated into PER?

I know that things like missed shots and turnovers are "subtracted" from a player's PER, so I assume that the "bad things" that Westbrook is doing for his team are already factored in.


You know how WAR at the end of the year, a bunch of guys have 650 or so PA? What if one of them had 950 PA and had 11 WAR, and then Trout had 9 WAR in 650 PA. Who's the better player? In NBA Westbrook has the option to take more than his fair share, and he does.

So when he jumps over his C to grab a defensive rebound, it takes away from Adams/Kanter's PER and adds to Westbrook's PER, even though it does absolutely zero to change the game state. ie it has no value. That's a flaw of PER, and a flaw that WAR doesn't have--how do you block out irrelevant rebounds that another teammate would have grabbed, and other things that a selfish basketball player can accomplish.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 18 17, 2:14 am 
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is shooing asian children away from his fridge.
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You don't gimmick or stat hog your way to averaging a triple double in the NBA, otherwise it would have been done before in my lifetime. You do it by playing balls to the wall all night, every night on a bad team. He had every right to go the petulant child/mailing it in route like literally every other NBA star ever would have done, instead he put that team on his back and has them in the playoffs. And people still want to hate on that because he's not efficient enough at being amazing. Him doing everything is the only way they sniff even 30 wins. How many guys 6'3" or less have ever gotten 10 boards a game? Think about all the tall, well paid players across the league (some of whom presumably don't have a selfish jerk stealing their rebounds) who don't get 10 a game. How many players have ever averaged 10 assists a game without a 20 PPG teammate to pass to? I bet it's not many. Russ and Lebron are infinitely more important to their teams than anyone else and they are the only two MVP candidates in my eyes.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 18 17, 3:12 am 
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The Last Word

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themiddle54 wrote:
Socnorb11 wrote:
themiddle54 wrote:
Broncos, Westbrook only leads the league in PER because of his audaciously high (and very bad for his team) usage rate. Because what Westbrook does is bad for his team but good for his individual PER does not make Westbrook a good player. There's nuance in there that's not in, say, WAR for baseball, when someone with a 10 WAR is accumulating value by taking 1600 PA while someone with a better wOBA stands wide open in the on-deck circle.

When we are talking about these three PG, Wall Kyrie and Thomas, they have usage rates between 30.1-32.9% and are in the same ballpark. Westbrook is at 42.9%.





How is usage rate calculated into PER?

I know that things like missed shots and turnovers are "subtracted" from a player's PER, so I assume that the "bad things" that Westbrook is doing for his team are already factored in.


You know how WAR at the end of the year, a bunch of guys have 650 or so PA? What if one of them had 950 PA and had 11 WAR, and then Trout had 9 WAR in 650 PA. Who's the better player? In NBA Westbrook has the option to take more than his fair share, and he does.

So when he jumps over his C to grab a defensive rebound, it takes away from Adams/Kanter's PER and adds to Westbrook's PER, even though it does absolutely zero to change the game state. ie it has no value. That's a flaw of PER, and a flaw that WAR doesn't have--how do you block out irrelevant rebounds that another teammate would have grabbed, and other things that a selfish basketball player can accomplish.



Theoretically, Isaiah Thomas could be doing some of that. We don't really know, since there's no way to measure it. Also Kyrie is battling Lebron for PER-relevant contributions. I suspect that Isaiah is getting more opportunity than Kyrie.

So really, it comes down to what we see with our eyes, mostly. Me? I'll take Kyrie.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 18 17, 7:30 pm 
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The Last Word

Joined: June 21 06, 8:45 am
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Golden State sat their divas last week for ABC's Saturday night game.

Cleveland resting their divas this week for ABC's Saturday night game.


Magic, Bird and Michael are probably shaking their heads. Ridiculous.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 20 17, 1:51 pm 
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I don't follow the NBA all that much but will watch the big games, but this whole resting players thing seems a little odd to me. It seems there is a lot of complaining about the NBA scheduling back to back games, but the NHL does the same thing and it seems like hockey would be more physically demanding than basketball. Maybe I am off though.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-17 NBA Season
PostPosted: March 21 17, 8:20 pm 
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'Burb Boy
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Joined: July 9 06, 11:33 am
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I love you Boogie, technicals and all.


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