Horseracing (was: The Belmont Stakes)

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jim
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Horseracing (was: The Belmont Stakes)

Post by jim »

Should be a fun race, California Chrome is going for history as the first horse since Affirmed in '78 to win the triple crown. He's not a slam dunk, both Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, and Ride on Curlin drew bad post positions for the derby and got out slow yet made strong finishes. Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong did not run in the Preakness, giving them time to rest and train for the Belmont.
Last edited by jim on July 27 14, 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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sighyoung
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by sighyoung »

jim wrote:Should be a fun race, California Chrome is going for history as the first horse since Affirmed in '78 to win the triple crown. He's not a slam dunk, both Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, and Ride on Curlin drew bad post positions for the derby and got out slow yet made strong finishes. Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong did not run in the Preakness, giving them time to rest and train for the Belmont.
You're right, jim--horses were closing in on California Chrome at the end of the Derby, so it'll be a big question whether that horse can hold on at the longer distance in the Belmont Stakes. I sat next to someone who bet on C.C. in the Derby and won, but he pointed out the finish, saying, "That's not a Triple Crown horse." But we'll see. It would be something it he wins.

jim
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by jim »

I'm going to really take a closer look at the videos, but Commanding Curve started at that weird spot that angles in (#17) and had to settle it at the back of the pack. He had clean lanes, but still getting around 17 horses is going to take some doing. He was gaining ground big time up until about 200 yards when he just kind of kept pace with CC. If he gets a better post position, add in that he didn't race the Preakness, and I think it's a legit horse. The only thing I don't know yet is the distance, I'd really want to look at all of the history of these horses to see if there is a hint that might give a clue. The bloodline of CC doesn't give any hints that this horse will run this distance. I would be very hesitant to lay down money on him given the odds I think he will go off at.

As far CC not being a TC horse, we'll I guess we will see. I certainly understand that comment, but if he wins it he wins it. I guarantee you that he won't go down as one of the great TC winners, he's not going to break Secretariat's record. But the story is amazing, if you aren't familiar with horse racing blood lines are extremely important. For example, reading about Secretariat's bloodline in the biography (great read by the way) is like reading a who's who of American tycoons going back to the Civil War. The bloodline was proven back so many generations, and it all came into perfect harmony with that horse. They actually sold shares of Secretariat at more than $200k a piece (36 shares) which gave you the right to breed with him. None of his direct offspring amounted to much though. But the fact that CC was sired by some pretty mundane horses, well I guess that gives every horse owner with a cheap claiming horse a dream.
Last edited by jim on June 3 14, 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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stlouie_lipp
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by stlouie_lipp »

I don't think he gets it done.

jim
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by jim »

Post positions have been set - CC got a great draw with the #2 post. The early line on the horses that I think are contenders:

2 California Chrome 3-5
4 Commanding Curve 15-1
5 Ride on Curlin 12-1
9 Wicked Strong 6-1
11 Tonalist 8-1

BTW - if you want race results and what not you can get quite a bit of stuff free at http://www.equibase.com. You can search the horses, find their results, get race results/workouts etc...

I just can't put my finger on a horse that can win, but I really worry that CC is going to be able to handle the distance. I am really rooting for the horse, I think the sport needs this, but I would never lay money down on a horse like this at 3-5.

Commanding Curve closed on CC in the Derby, a race that was a pretty slow pace. Ride on Curlin closed on CC similarly in the Preakness, a faster but shorter race. Tonalist won a Grade 2 stakes race in early May - but it was only 1 1/8 although a quick pace. He lost ground late.

Wicked Strong - this is a horse to watch. He won the Wood Memorial in early April, a race that had a quick pace for the first half and then slowed for the last split. He finished 4th in the Derby, starting in the 20th position and got caught up in some crap. He had gas left at the end.

...

I completely agree that CC is the favorite, but I just don't know if I would lay money down with these odds. 5-3 maybe, but not 3-5.
Last edited by jim on June 7 14, 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Vidor
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by Vidor »

How will this horse fail to win the Triple Crown?

1. Shot by a sniper
2. Breaks leg and dies
3. Sucked up into vortex by alien spacecraft
4. Jockey is drunk
5. Horse is drunk
6. Race is fixed
7. PETA commandos seize control of racetrack
8. Another horse runs faster

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

6 & 8

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Take this fwiw, and it may not be much, but a jockey once told me there will never be another TC winner. Apparently, according to him, there's an organization - something like the All Uppity All Equine Association for Established Equine Breeding Purity - that will pay $5M or so to a TC winner. But, they don't want to pay it, and as such, they will stage the race. If a horse is a front runner, they'll throw some fresh legged quick starters out there to push the pace and wear the horse out. If he's a late breaker, they'll try to box him on the rail to not let him get outside later. Etc.

/taking off the tinfoil hat

Vidor
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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by Vidor »

It would seem like withdrawing the $5 million offer would be easier.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Vidor wrote:It would seem like withdrawing the $5 million offer would be easier.
But....But....where's the fun in that? I guess we'll see this weekend. Seems like if they're going to mess up California Chrome's mojo, they'll have to tire him out early. Drawing the #2 post for a frontrunner is typically pretty sweet, iirc.... At least it makes sense that it would be.

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