NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

JL21 wrote:
lukethedrifter wrote:Obviously, Pete Carroll (and Darrell Bevell) underestimated their greatest weapon. But don't act like he's stupid. The eventual outcome was pretty damn unlikely.
Mike Cardano @MikeCardano · 7h 7 hours ago
INTERESTING: That was the 109th time a QB threw from the 1-yd line this yr & it the 1st time it resulted in an INT @scotteRotoEx @AdamRonis
They have that play, then a run, then a timeout, then a choice on 4th.
I agree with this 100%.

Even taking away the situation (the down and distance), Wilson's INT % is 1.5 this year, 2.1 career. Less than a 1-in-50 shot that he gets picked.

There's no denying that they should have used Lynch, but the pick was an extremely unlikely outcome.
I don't know. Wilson's not using his head, so those stats (1:50 or whatever it is) get thrown out the window. It's a designed play, drop back and sling it to a spot for a receiver that's coming off a pick. I have a tough time saying it was a bad call, well, no I don't. If you're going to pass it, and you're going to run a designed play, find one where there's a zero percent chance of an interception. Throwing blindly into an area that has at a minimum 2 DBs is a seemingly bad idea. If the receiver botches the catch, if the receiver falls down, if its a bad pass, if the DB jumps the route, etc etc etc, it's well within the realm of possibilities that the pass is intercepted. Compared to a fade route or a timed back shoulder pass, there's a lot less likelihood of a pick. I guess that's my beef. 1. You take your best player out of the game and 2. you take a risk that's just not needed on a play that by his own admission was used to set up the next play.

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

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JL21
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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by JL21 »

Yeah, I don't really disagree that they could have chosen a better pass play.

Even still, Wilson's a pretty reliable guy when it comes to taking care of the ball. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to throw that pass in a way that only his guy catches it or it's incomplete. Risky, sure, but I don't think an unreasonable risk. Carroll didn't help his case much by referring to it as a wasted play or whatever, and I don't want to defend that douchebag any more than I feel comfortable with.

Deadspin had a good write-up about the Pats and their anticipation of the play. Butler had seen it in practice.

I also thought this was pretty telling- I saw it on Twitter. This is what Russell Wilson saw:

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by Freed Roger »

pioneer98 wrote:Nate Silver says the decision to throw wasn't terrible...but yeah, I think the type of pass that it was is the main problem.

Belichick's decision not to call timeout and save some clock in the event the Seahawks scored was also a bad decision.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-h ... e-carroll/
Scoreboard indicates otherwise.

sounds like cherrypicking stats that don't apply to this circumstance.
Maybe the picks aren't on passing plays from the one - more like the 3 etc.

Apologies for being repetitive: I can't prove it now, but I have strong recollection from years of watching football of that quick inside pass at the goal line as high success rate, but bigger damage factor when it fails. I've seen the Rams do it several times. besides the congestion - with such short distance and hepped up atmosphere, the ball has tendency to come in too hot and receiver clanks it, ball goes in air and defense comes down with it. And as AW mentions, Wilson is throwing to a spot. How often do we see a QB near goal line throw it right to a defender? that's what can happen with that type of play.

RE: the lack of timeout. I don't think we'll ever know Bellicheck's thought process there. by not calling, was he thinking Lynch scores next play, and he's just trading the 10-ish seconds for an extra timeout on FG drive (a poor trade imo). did he have some sort of hunch that a TO there would be more beneficial to Seattle setting their final plan than helping his team's chances?

Or, I know these coaches have been around hundreds or thousands of games and try to practice EOG scenarios, but this was pretty unusual circumstances -SB, the ball suddenly at the goal line, both teams have timeout(s), and FG does no good. No time to way all the factors in a rational manner. it just happened.
Last edited by Freed Roger on February 2 15, 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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JL21
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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by JL21 »

Yeah, and I kind of think what's getting lost here is that you have to tip your cap to the kid that made the pick. It was a hell of a read and a hell of a play to jump that route.

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by GeddyWrox »

One other point as to the questionableness of the play selection... Carroll said they didn't want to run because of the congestion stacked up the middle, right? So why on earth would throwing into that congestion be a better choice??? I'm no football genius, but it sure seems illogical to me.

As they were getting ready to run the play, I was saying to my friends "Fake to Lynch, let Wilson keep it." I bet he gets in.

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by Socnorb11 »

JL21 wrote:Yeah, and I kind of think what's getting lost here is that you have to tip your cap to the kid that made the pick. It was a hell of a read and a hell of a play to jump that route.

++++

It's a testament to his film studying, too. Even then though, he had to make a split-second decision to break the right direction, had to make a split-second decision to go for the ball instead of the receiver, had to make a split-second decision to catch it rather than just knock it down, the he had to hold onto the ball after a hard hit.

Really a great, great play.

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

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Socnorb11 wrote:Image
Someone skilled in Photoshop should change the driver to either Brady or Belicheck and the item being passed to the Lombardi trophy.

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Re: NFL Playoffs 2015/Super Bowl XVIX

Post by lukethedrifter »

JL21 wrote:
I also thought this was pretty telling- I saw it on Twitter. This is what Russell Wilson saw:

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Exactly. It wasn't THAT stupid of a play. All of the real analysis says the same thing yet people who love advanced stats (and those that don't for sure) in baseball are continuing to crucify him for the play call.

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