2016-17 NBA Season

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by themiddle54 »

In the last 40 years of the NBA the only player who was not on a team that finished 1st or 2nd in their conference to win the MVP was Jordan in '88. That team had a .610 win percentage and was 3rd in their conference. Russ's team is running .547 and is 7th in their conference. While he's the triple-double king (without actually winning two of those three statistics races) it would be unprecedented for a player on a 7 seed to win the MVP.

Unlike baseball in which the big offensive stats are isolated down to mostly 1-on-1 matchups determined by a single 60'6" area and are generally very good at telling us most of what we need to know about performance, there's a lot in basketball that doesn't translate to stats. Like Lebron taking over a game defensively in the 4th quarter--making defensive stops doesn't translate to stats, but Lebron does it. Or Curry running around three screens getting the defense to chase after him, leaving Thompson open. Or a lot of other things, that are almost immeasurable in basketball. Think about the stuff in baseball that has a stat. A putout has a stat for the fielder and an out for the hitter. But if you close the baseline off to an opponent and he steps on the line, that opponent gets a turnover while you get no positive corresponding stat. In baseball a HBP has a negative stat for a pitcher and a corresponding positive stat for the batter. But if you take a charge, the opposing player gets a personal foul called and you get no corresponding positive stat indicating that you've done something to aid your team. None of the advanced stats, whether on BBREF or in ESPN's Hollinger stats, or otherwise gives us the full picture of a basketball player's impact on a game. And because it's five-on-five and free flowing great players have huge impact, which again isn't all in stats.

It's certainly not in just three stats. Much like arguing Miggy > Trout for MVP that one year Miggy won the Triple Crown, there are perhaps some stats left out of this that have as much impact as rebounds and assists on the outcome of games.

Westbrook turns the ball over 5.4 times/game. Kawhi only 2.0.
Westbrook misses 9.7 2-pointers per game. Kawhi only 6.0.
Westbrook misses 4.5 3-pointers per game, Kawhi only 3.2.
Westbrook gets 1.6 steals per game. Kawhi 1.9.
Westbrook commits 2.4 fouls per game. Kawhi 1.6.
Westbrook blocks 0.4 shots per game. Kawhi 0.7.

Those Hollinger ESPN stats have Russ leading the league in PER at 30.22. Kawhi is 2nd at 28.67 and has played five fewer games--his team has played fewer than OKC and also Kawhi has rested for the playoff run. That's not a big difference and Kawhi bridges that gap in the triple-double stats for 3 reasons:
1. he's a good shooter and Westbrook is not
2. Westbrook takes way too many shots for a bad shooter
3. Westbrook is a turnover machine

FWIW Westbrook might have been a better overall player last year. His Win Shares/48 minutes was higher. His offensive rating (an estimate of how many points a player produces) was higher last year. His defensive rating was better last year (like ORtg but for D).

He's basically peak Adam Dunn: 40 HR and 100 RBI and 122 walks and nothing else.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by Farewell Friends »

He's shooting 42 percent from the field and 33 percent on almost 7 3-attempts per game. Yuck.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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That's kind of my thing on Westbrook. Yeah, he has those three Triple Crown-ish stats, but then literally everything else is bad. He's a bad shooter. That .422 FG% is 302nd out of 473 players who have taken a shot this year. That .337 3P% is 229th out of 431 players to have taken a three this year. That is too much shooting for such bad efficiency.

When he's jumping over Kanter or Adams to grab a defensive rebound, so he can charge the length of the floor and shoot on his own, that is losing basketball. For everyone who hated the iso-ball era, this is that taken to an even greater extreme than the days of Kobe chucking like mad.

What if he drops below the triple-double average? He's at 10.0 APG right now and hasn't reached 10 assists in any of his last 4 games. If he ends up not having the triple-double average and is like 32.1 / 9.8 / 10.5 doe he still get MVP consideration, or is it like Miggy/Trout several years ago when Miggy won because he won the Triple Crown?

Anyway, Russ gets to face the Spurs tonight, and I fully expect the Spurs--who rested Kawhi and Aldridge last night and have taken it easy on Pau the last two games--to win by double-digits. Russ might score 48, like he did in a loss to the awful Suns last week, or he might score 45, like he did in a loss to the mediocre Blazers last week, or he might score 58, like he did in a loss to the mediocre Blazers this week, but the Spurs are going to take them, and Kawhi will play great D and probably go like 33 / 6 / 6 with a few steals and a block or two and he won't take one shot that you look at the tee-vee and go "Ugh, why are you taking THAT SHOT?" but Russ will the the highlight guy on SportsCenter.

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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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It's just not any fun to watch Westbrook without Durant. The last time I caught a Thunder game they were playing the Grizzlies and he did as you mentioned, soaring over his own defenders for a rebound so he could sprint down the court and fire a contested pull-up jumper. It was annoying to watch.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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Big matchup on TV tonight. Dubs (who are without KD and resting Curry, Thompson, Green, Iggy) vs Spurs (Kawhi has a concussion and Aldridge is out maybe forever with a heart thing and they're resting Parker and Murray ((maybe Patty Mills plays 48 minutes)) and Anderson is a ?).

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lukethedrifter
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by lukethedrifter »

themiddle54 wrote:Big matchup on TV tonight. Dubs (who are without KD and resting Curry, Thompson, Green, Iggy) vs Spurs (Kawhi has a concussion and Aldridge is out maybe forever with a heart thing and they're resting Parker and Murray ((maybe Patty Mills plays 48 minutes)) and Anderson is a ?).
Wonder if Aldridge has had an ablation. Wish we still had our GRB staff docs, clevername and cpebbles. Isn't slide a doc too?

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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Random NBA thoughts...

Congrats if you bet the over on this one.

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Kevin Love's last game was 2/11. Since 2/11, LeBron is, with his full-season averages in ( )...
PPG 27.6 (26.1)
RPG 10.5 (8.3)
APG 9.4 (8.8)
FG% .587 (.540)
3P% .446 (.388)

So LBJ has really stepped it up. Thing is, his team is 7-6 in that span (including 0-2 in games he rested, so 7-4 with him in the LU, which is not great.)

-----------------

Now that SAS has the best record, and considering Kawhi has gone from a 21PPG scorer and elite defender on the 2nd best team in the NBA to a 26 PPG scorer and elite defender on the best team in the NBA I think he firmly deserves front-runner status for MVP. There's a very short list of elite players who add 5PPG to their game during their peak years.

-----------------

Nurkic is a completely different guy as Blazer than he was as Nugget.
When they traded him and he went to the media with the whole "they didn't use me right" thing I was like "dude, they've got Jokic, you're no Jokic." And he's no Jokic, to be sure, but he's been a freaking beast for the Blazers. Only knock is foul trouble. If Nurk could stay out of foul trouble that great stat line as Blazer would be downright gaudy.

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The NBA is really great right now. I have a lot more to say in the NBA thread than I do all the baseball threads combined these days.

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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by Socnorb11 »

themiddle54 wrote:Random NBA thoughts...



Nurkic is a completely different guy as Blazer than he was as Nugget.
When they traded him and he went to the media with the whole "they didn't use me right" thing I was like "dude, they've got Jokic, you're no Jokic." And he's no Jokic, to be sure, but he's been a freaking beast for the Blazers. Only knock is foul trouble. If Nurk could stay out of foul trouble that great stat line as Blazer would be downright gaudy.

This was one of those trades that seems to have worked exceptionally well for both teams. Nuggets fans love love love Plumlee (wasn't the case with Nurkic). Plumlee's pass-first mentality is exactly what the Nuggets needed (they have plenty of scorers, as-is). The Plumlee/Jokic combo has worked in a way that Nurkic/Jokic did not (no knock on Nukic....... it simply wasn't a good fit).

The Nuggets are 8-5 since the trade, and almost unstoppable offensively. I'm pretty sure the Blazers have played better, too.

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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by Socnorb11 »

Right on cue, Nurkic puts up 2 points and 0 assists (with 4 turnovers) tonight, in a game that the Blazers really needed to win. #-o

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Socnorb11 wrote:Right on cue, Nurkic puts up 2 points and 0 assists (with 4 turnovers) tonight, in a game that the Blazers really needed to win. #-o
I got to go to this game, first NBA game for me in nearly 15 years. He clearly was overmatched by Boogie... who then overmatched Meyers Leonard even more. If it weren't for an unusually awful night at the foul line, his line would've looked insane. Still 22 & 9 in about 30 minutes work... I'll take it.

Hard to say anything about Anthony Davis other than I love the man. I could watch his alley oop with Boogie about a million more times. Even on a night where he's able to get rest and the offense isn't running through him, he still gets 15 & 15.

In all, I probably got to see the Pelicans most complete win of the season. AD and Boogie get rest as I mentioned during the first game of a back to back, six players score in double figures, Blazers held to season low in points, and Pelicans commit a season low in turnovers.

Couple of quick hitter notes:

-Jrue at least wasn't forcing the ball tonight but his stroke is still off. I believe he should've absolutely be the priority still in the offseason but he just hasn't been good for the most part since Boogie got here

-Jordan Crawford I hope has a place on next year's team. Love how quickly he can score. Even if it's the only dimension of his game, there's value in it.

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