2016-17 NBA Season

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by themiddle54 »

That GIF is so 2 weeks ago.

PER
Thomas 26.8
Wall 22.9
Kyrie 22.8

Points Per 36 Min
Thomas 30.8
Irving 25.8
Wall 22.6

Assists Per 36 Min
Wall 10.5
Thomas 6.4
Kyrie 6.0

Rebounds Per 36 Min
Wall 4.2
Irving 3.4
Thomas 2.8 (he's, what 9" shorter than the other two?)

TS%
Thomas .624
Irving .578
Wall .539

EFG%
Thomas .544
Irving .533
Wall .480

If Kyrie was the best of the bunch, he's not the best of the bunch at doing any one thing in particular. He has the best handle in the Association but he turns the ball over 0.1 times fewer per game than Thomas.

Thomas is the best shooter and scorer (by a large margin.) Wall is the best distributor (by a landslide) and rebounder. And neither of them is lacking a rounding of their game (Thomas is bad at D, but I'm not sure that takes away from being a 30PPG scorer) that makes Kyrie a better all-around defensive player despite not being the best in the group at any one particular thing. Kyrie is not particularly good on D either, and of the three Wall is probably the best.

PER, as an overall measure comparable to WAR, shows us Wall and Kyrie kinda close (with the edge to Wall) and Thomas way out in front of the other two.

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thrill
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by thrill »

I know what PER is, man. You're very, extremely wrong and what I've never understood is how some people who watch a lot of NBA can so fully miss certain, universal NBA truths.

LeBron being the best player on the court is such a gigantic over-simplification that simply stating it as fact and moving on to comparing Kyrie to the other "contenders" best players and then talking depth as a means of making a case for the Celtics and Wiz having a shot at beating the Cavs in a 7 game series would tell me that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the difference between playoff basketball and regular season basketball. Usage rates are completely different, defenses are different, and most significantly to the Celtics case, coaching game planning changes so drastically that the system teams that go hard in the regular season to maximize their wins all of a sudden find the better teams matching their effort and preparation, they lose their edge. As a Bulls fan, you've seen this movie many, many times.

Isaiah Thomas is a fun novelty but there simply isn't a precedent in NBA history where a 5'5 player can be the best player on a real contender.

Enjoy your PER & true shooting percentages, listen to your Lowe Post podcasts, do whatever it is you like to do as an NBA fan but you're wrong. I'm far from a statistical luddite, but there are certain realities that you can't get around when it comes to the NBA postseason. Health is the only variable that could stop the Cavs from coming out of the east.

Socnorb11
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by Socnorb11 »

themiddle54 wrote:

PER, as an overall measure comparable to WAR, shows us Wall and Kyrie kinda close (with the edge to Wall) and Thomas way out in front of the other two.
Russell Westbrook leads the league in PER. 2 pages ago, you told us how over-rated he is.


Thomas is having a great season, but I'd definitely take Kyrie.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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Broncos, Westbrook only leads the league in PER because of his audaciously high (and very bad for his team) usage rate. Because what Westbrook does is bad for his team but good for his individual PER does not make Westbrook a good player. There's nuance in there that's not in, say, WAR for baseball, when someone with a 10 WAR is accumulating value by taking 1600 PA while someone with a better wOBA stands wide open in the on-deck circle.

When we are talking about these three PG, Wall Kyrie and Thomas, they have usage rates between 30.1-32.9% and are in the same ballpark. Westbrook is at 42.9%.

Thrill, I know you know what PER is, and that you're a sharp guy re the NBA. I'm defining it for people reading this who don't. I know what playoff basketball is and I know that starting lineups and stars make a big difference. I don't know what it is to be emotionally invested in the Bulls, though, because I'm not a Bulls fan.

Wall and Thomas are still both better than Kyrie, to that specific point, and the 4th and 5th best players on the Cavs would be bench players on both the Wiz and Celtics, to that point. They might not have the one big force that Cleveland does but they have better starting fives from top to bottom and do have a top-ten player leading them in Wall and Thomas. Both teams could lose to Cleveland, and I'm not saying they wouldn't, I agree they are likely to lose to CLE. I'm just saying that Farewell's point that it's competitive and intriguing this year is one I agree with and that while CLE is likely they are no sure thing.

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thrill
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by thrill »

themiddle54 wrote:I don't know what it is to be emotionally invested in the Bulls, though, because I'm not a Bulls fan.
My bad, thought you were. I was speaking more in terms of how those Thibs teams used to max out in the regular season but as soon as they ran up against real teams that matched their effort, they were toast. This Celtics team has that written all over it, imo.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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I don't see that in Boston at all. They have rolled deep all year. There are 7 guys (I'm including Johnson at 19.9) who average 20 minutes per game and another three between 16.5-17.9 MPG.

That's not far off from CLE, who have 10 guys averaging 20MPG (but that also includes new adds like Korver, Williams, Williams along with JR and those four can't overlap at the same time) and who runs their starters for roughly the same kind of time as BOS.

Lebron and Kyrie both play over 35 MPG, and no one on Boston, not even Thomas who is resting this weekend, play that much.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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...and I'm ok w/ that distinction for WAS, since Oubre is the only guy (aside from new man Bojan) to have played any meaningful time off the bench. They have ridden their front five hard.

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thrill
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by thrill »

themiddle54 wrote:I don't see that in Boston at all. They have rolled deep all year. There are 7 guys (I'm including Johnson at 19.9) who average 20 minutes per game and another three between 16.5-17.9 MPG.
The Thibs team that got rolled by Miami in 5 games went 9 deep: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2011.html

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

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That Heat team had a 29 year old D-Wade though. Kyrie Irving is a very good player. I like him very much. I like watching him play, It pains me a bit to take the anti- side in this convo about Kyrie because he's a top-20 player. But he's no Wade and it's not particularly close. That Wade season in Miami, Wade was probably 30% more productive than Kyrie is this year. If we're talking about Playoff Basketball and the starting five (or even more specifically the top couple guys) make the big difference, it's tough to compare this Cavs team to that Heat team once we get past LeBron leading both.

With the exceptions of Boozer and Korver everyone on that Bulls team that was meaningful was 25 or under. Rose was only 22. Noah 25. For the Celtics this year, everyone in their rotation who is meaningful is over 25 except Olynyk (25) and Smart (22). Jaylen Brown is getting mixed into the rotation a little more lately, and he's only 20. But by and large this Celtics team is a more seasoned one than the Bulls were. Their alpha dog, Thomas, is 27, unlike Rose's 22 in '11. Their C, Horford, is a 30 year old vet and not a 25 year old youngster like Noah was for the '11 Bulls.

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themiddle54
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Re: 2016-17 NBA Season

Post by themiddle54 »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:BOOGIE IS A PELICAN I NEED A MOMENT
Still feeling it?

Since the trade they lost all but
-a game that he was suspended and didn't play
-a game that he fouled out
-a game that he was benched in the stretch
-a game where he shot 9-22 from the floor, 0-5 from 3P and 4-10 from the stripe but POR as a team couldn't put it in the ocean

They went from 2.5 out of the last playoff spot to 6 back since adding him.

Yikes.

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