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PostPosted: January 15 08, 10:56 pm 
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I'm watching the press conferences, and they said they'd be talking about this deal for about a month. It wasn't within the last week that it started gaining steam, though.


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PostPosted: January 15 08, 11:25 pm 
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Hungary Jack wrote:
planet pujolsian wrote:
Does anyone know much about Glaus' knee issues? The most recent is the foot thing, but I think he missed a fair amount of time with a knee injury.

Still in CO, HJ?


Here thru Saturday. Storm coming in. I hope it dumps. Powder makes me happy.


Hey i sent you a PM. Where are you skiing? I work at Vail in the winters.


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PostPosted: January 15 08, 11:31 pm 
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Freed Roger wrote:
I don't like the deal.

Yes the deal had to be done - a fire sale (thanks to Larussa), but I'd rather have a minor league prospect or two.


You've got it backwards - a fire sale is exactly where you trade established players for kids. What we got was near-to-equal value, which I find a little amazing we were able to do.


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PostPosted: January 15 08, 11:49 pm 
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Jmodene wrote:
Well, as I've pointed out here and elsewhere, Glaus' injuries may have taken him off the field, but haven't affected his production.

Actually, Glaus' injuries have affected his power...it's just been masked by the parks he's played in.

I posted this a little while back in this thread:
Quote:
Adjusted as accurately as possible with ESPN's park factors:
Glaus hit one double every 4.49 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 5.13. Last year with foot problems one per 5.63.

Glaus hit one homerun every 3.48 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 4.37. Last year with foot problems one per 5.94.

The last few years New Busch has strongly supressed both HRs and doubles. Glaus' parks over the previous three years in TOR and ARI have all been (very) favorable to both. The bottom line: Don't be surprised if Glaus' power numbers take a decent hit while he's here...all the signs are pointing that way.

Glaus' 162 game average is 146 hits. Those numbers show a drop of 8.5 HRs and 4.1 doubles per 162 games from pre-shoulder surgery to post-shoulder surgery. Last year with the foot problems, those numbers dropped an additional 8.8 HRs and 2.5 doubles per 162 games...matching almost exactly the drop from his shoulder injuries.

Combined, that's a smidge over 100 points in SLG% that we're talking about...if the foot injuries linger on, and if the park factor trends in New Busch hold up from the last few years, you might be rather dissapointed with what you get from in Glaus in 2008 and 2009.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 3:53 am 
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EastonBlues22 wrote:
Jmodene wrote:
Well, as I've pointed out here and elsewhere, Glaus' injuries may have taken him off the field, but haven't affected his production.

Actually, Glaus' injuries have affected his power...it's just been masked by the parks he's played in.

I posted this a little while back in this thread:
Quote:
Adjusted as accurately as possible with ESPN's park factors:
Glaus hit one double every 4.49 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 5.13. Last year with foot problems one per 5.63.

Glaus hit one homerun every 3.48 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 4.37. Last year with foot problems one per 5.94.

The last few years New Busch has strongly supressed both HRs and doubles. Glaus' parks over the previous three years in TOR and ARI have all been (very) favorable to both. The bottom line: Don't be surprised if Glaus' power numbers take a decent hit while he's here...all the signs are pointing that way.

Glaus' 162 game average is 146 hits. Those numbers show a drop of 8.5 HRs and 4.1 doubles per 162 games from pre-shoulder surgery to post-shoulder surgery. Last year with the foot problems, those numbers dropped an additional 8.8 HRs and 2.5 doubles per 162 games...matching almost exactly the drop from his shoulder injuries.

Combined, that's a smidge over 100 points in SLG% that we're talking about...if the foot injuries linger on, and if the park factor trends in New Busch hold up from the last few years, you might be rather dissapointed with what you get from in Glaus in 2008 and 2009.


I'm using the Baseball Reference park factors, and only Arizona is really a huge hitter's park (106). Rogers Centre (nee SkyDome, at 99/100) is about as neutral as Busch (99/99).

Plus, if he's switching from turf to grass, maybe there's something to not having foot problems any more. According to DG re: foot injuries:

Derrick Goold wrote:
Field turf — especially the stuff at Edward Jones — is supposed to be a kinder, gentler turf for the athlete. A vast improvement of the green asphalt of yesteryear. Still, in talking with Glaus’ agent, other players and some baseball officials, the going believe is that the grass with be better for his feet than the rigid turf there in Toronto. The Jays have said Glaus was bothered by the foot injury as early as spring training. His agent said it really became difficult to deal with May, after he’d had some time on the turf and was ruining his legs by compensating for the plantar fasciitis.

Will Carroll, med guru over at Baseball Prospectus, made an interesting point about your secont question. He suggested that the Cardinals’ experience with Pujols will actually help Glaus get through his foot trouble. His surgery was supposed to end the pain, but management may still be necessary — and Pujols has prepped the Cardinals for that. A couple seasons ago, Pujols had sonic treatment on his foot and he’s said that it hasn’t caused him the same difficulty as it did a couple seasons ago.


I'd advise reading the whole thing for context, but you get the idea.

Plus, the bump of switching from AL East pitching to NL Central pitching should also help out his offense.

So, if Glaus is no longer troubled (as much) by his foot problems, and the park plays like usual, there's no reason to expect him to do worse than say .255/.350/.475 or so, maybe a bit better.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 7:11 am 
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Phyrkrakr wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:
Jmodene wrote:
Well, as I've pointed out here and elsewhere, Glaus' injuries may have taken him off the field, but haven't affected his production.

Actually, Glaus' injuries have affected his power...it's just been masked by the parks he's played in.

I posted this a little while back in this thread:
Quote:
Adjusted as accurately as possible with ESPN's park factors:
Glaus hit one double every 4.49 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 5.13. Last year with foot problems one per 5.63.

Glaus hit one homerun every 3.48 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 4.37. Last year with foot problems one per 5.94.

The last few years New Busch has strongly supressed both HRs and doubles. Glaus' parks over the previous three years in TOR and ARI have all been (very) favorable to both. The bottom line: Don't be surprised if Glaus' power numbers take a decent hit while he's here...all the signs are pointing that way.

Glaus' 162 game average is 146 hits. Those numbers show a drop of 8.5 HRs and 4.1 doubles per 162 games from pre-shoulder surgery to post-shoulder surgery. Last year with the foot problems, those numbers dropped an additional 8.8 HRs and 2.5 doubles per 162 games...matching almost exactly the drop from his shoulder injuries.

Combined, that's a smidge over 100 points in SLG% that we're talking about...if the foot injuries linger on, and if the park factor trends in New Busch hold up from the last few years, you might be rather dissapointed with what you get from in Glaus in 2008 and 2009.


I'm using the Baseball Reference park factors, and only Arizona is really a huge hitter's park (106). Rogers Centre (nee SkyDome, at 99/100) is about as neutral as Busch (99/99).

Plus, if he's switching from turf to grass, maybe there's something to not having foot problems any more. According to DG re: foot injuries:

Derrick Goold wrote:
Field turf — especially the stuff at Edward Jones — is supposed to be a kinder, gentler turf for the athlete. A vast improvement of the green asphalt of yesteryear. Still, in talking with Glaus’ agent, other players and some baseball officials, the going believe is that the grass with be better for his feet than the rigid turf there in Toronto. The Jays have said Glaus was bothered by the foot injury as early as spring training. His agent said it really became difficult to deal with May, after he’d had some time on the turf and was ruining his legs by compensating for the plantar fasciitis.

Will Carroll, med guru over at Baseball Prospectus, made an interesting point about your secont question. He suggested that the Cardinals’ experience with Pujols will actually help Glaus get through his foot trouble. His surgery was supposed to end the pain, but management may still be necessary — and Pujols has prepped the Cardinals for that. A couple seasons ago, Pujols had sonic treatment on his foot and he’s said that it hasn’t caused him the same difficulty as it did a couple seasons ago.


I'd advise reading the whole thing for context, but you get the idea.

Plus, the bump of switching from AL East pitching to NL Central pitching should also help out his offense.

So, if Glaus is no longer troubled (as much) by his foot problems, and the park plays like usual, there's no reason to expect him to do worse than say .255/.350/.475 or so, maybe a bit better.



I expect him to hit for nothing less then .500 slugging.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 7:19 am 
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Hello,
Long time listener, first time caller. I'm down on this trade because of Rolen's D. According to Harry Callas (and he should know), Rollen is superior to Brooks Robinson as a defensive third baseman. This alone should qualify Rolen for the HOF. They should gotten the offense from somewhere else.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 7:28 am 
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Phyrkrakr wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:
Jmodene wrote:
Well, as I've pointed out here and elsewhere, Glaus' injuries may have taken him off the field, but haven't affected his production.

Actually, Glaus' injuries have affected his power...it's just been masked by the parks he's played in.

I posted this a little while back in this thread:
Quote:
Adjusted as accurately as possible with ESPN's park factors:
Glaus hit one double every 4.49 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 5.13. Last year with foot problems one per 5.63.

Glaus hit one homerun every 3.48 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 4.37. Last year with foot problems one per 5.94.

The last few years New Busch has strongly supressed both HRs and doubles. Glaus' parks over the previous three years in TOR and ARI have all been (very) favorable to both. The bottom line: Don't be surprised if Glaus' power numbers take a decent hit while he's here...all the signs are pointing that way.

Glaus' 162 game average is 146 hits. Those numbers show a drop of 8.5 HRs and 4.1 doubles per 162 games from pre-shoulder surgery to post-shoulder surgery. Last year with the foot problems, those numbers dropped an additional 8.8 HRs and 2.5 doubles per 162 games...matching almost exactly the drop from his shoulder injuries.

Combined, that's a smidge over 100 points in SLG% that we're talking about...if the foot injuries linger on, and if the park factor trends in New Busch hold up from the last few years, you might be rather dissapointed with what you get from in Glaus in 2008 and 2009.


I'm using the Baseball Reference park factors, and only Arizona is really a huge hitter's park (106). Rogers Centre (nee SkyDome, at 99/100) is about as neutral as Busch (99/99).

The B-R park factors are just a lump sum compilation of all "offense" numbers. ESPN breaks it down into Runs, Hits, Walks, Doubles, Triples, HRs. In this case, where we're just concerned with Glaus' power numbers, the Run/Hit/Walk (and even Triples, which have a large speed component) numbers are just excess noise that confuses the real numbers we're interested in. In 2007 the Rogers Center happens to very hitter friendly when it comes to the HR/Double power aspect, and very pitcher friendly when it comes to Runs/Walks/Hits. In 2006 it was very hitter friendly in every category but walks, and especially hitter friendly in the power categories we're looking at.

In this instance, where we're concerned with a specific part of a player's game, the ESPN numbers are much more useful to us.

Quote:
Plus, if he's switching from turf to grass, maybe there's something to not having foot problems any more. According to DG re: foot injuries:

Derrick Goold wrote:
Field turf — especially the stuff at Edward Jones — is supposed to be a kinder, gentler turf for the athlete. A vast improvement of the green asphalt of yesteryear. Still, in talking with Glaus’ agent, other players and some baseball officials, the going believe is that the grass with be better for his feet than the rigid turf there in Toronto. The Jays have said Glaus was bothered by the foot injury as early as spring training. His agent said it really became difficult to deal with May, after he’d had some time on the turf and was ruining his legs by compensating for the plantar fasciitis.

Will Carroll, med guru over at Baseball Prospectus, made an interesting point about your secont question. He suggested that the Cardinals’ experience with Pujols will actually help Glaus get through his foot trouble. His surgery was supposed to end the pain, but management may still be necessary — and Pujols has prepped the Cardinals for that. A couple seasons ago, Pujols had sonic treatment on his foot and he’s said that it hasn’t caused him the same difficulty as it did a couple seasons ago.


I'd advise reading the whole thing for context, but you get the idea.

Plus, the bump of switching from AL East pitching to NL Central pitching should also help out his offense.

So, if Glaus is no longer troubled (as much) by his foot problems, and the park plays like usual, there's no reason to expect him to do worse than say .255/.350/.475 or so, maybe a bit better.

I've stated my reasons why I think he's going to have trouble with his feet moving forward, so we'll have to just agree to disagree there.

I've never understood the pitching argument...Baltimore and TB had the two worst staffs in the majors last year. The ALE ERAs (minus Toronto) average to a 4.77 last year...the NLC ERAs (minus StL) average to a 4.60.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 11:01 am 
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Quote:
I've never understood the pitching argument...Baltimore and TB had the two worst staffs in the majors last year. The ALE ERAs (minus Toronto) average to a 4.77 last year...the NLC ERAs (minus StL) average to a 4.60.


Not that I completely disagree with you, there is a point to be made with what you say -- but keep in mind that last season alone, BAL and TB had to face the Yanks and Sox 80 times between them.

And as bad as the overall team ERAs are for BAL and TB -- bottom-feeding teams -- even they trot out Kazmir, Shields, and Bedard some 30% of the time.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 12:24 pm 
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skmsw wrote:
Quote:
I've never understood the pitching argument...Baltimore and TB had the two worst staffs in the majors last year. The ALE ERAs (minus Toronto) average to a 4.77 last year...the NLC ERAs (minus StL) average to a 4.60.


Not that I completely disagree with you, there is a point to be made with what you say -- but keep in mind that last season alone, BAL and TB had to face the Yanks and Sox 80 times between them.

And as bad as the overall team ERAs are for BAL and TB -- bottom-feeding teams -- even they trot out Kazmir, Shields, and Bedard some 30% of the time.

A very fair point.

Fortunately for us, there's a way we can explore this a little (I'm omitting the numbers for TOR/STL throughout).
Staff ERA omitting games against NYY/BOS:
BAL 5.01
TBA 5.20

Re-adjusted ALE ERA = 4.64...less than 1% different than the NLC number.
If I compare OPS against in the same way (again adjusting TBA and BAL to completely factor out NYY/BOS), we have the ALE at .758...an improvement of 2% over the NLC's .773.

As a quick comparison...
Average Park Factors for Glaus in TOR/ARI the last three years: 1.160 HR, 1.047 2B
Average Park Factors for New Busch the last two years: .802 HR, .927 2B

Those represent decreases of 31% and 12%, respectively, over more games (since the ALE and NLC play between 72 and 80 division games). That means (if New Busch sticks to its trends, and the pitching differences last year are representative moving foward) that the park has a 6-16 times greater influence on Glaus' new numbers than the change in pitching.


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