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PostPosted: January 16 08, 1:32 pm 
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Jmodene wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:
I don't like the deal.

Yes the deal had to be done - a fire sale (thanks to Larussa), but I'd rather have a minor league prospect or two.


You've got it backwards - a fire sale is exactly where you trade established players for kids. What we got was near-to-equal value, which I find a little amazing we were able to do.


My opinion on the trade isn't a stat thing -its based on the big picture and several thread topics -

a)the riff between Larussa and Rolen? - this trade was mandatory/a fire sale whether Cards got a good deal or not.
b)The drug issue? I'm tired of the cards and Larussa providing refuge for these losers.
c)can the Cards win in 08? I don't think so - I'd rather see them go for a prospect in that case.

Its not like we can expect Glaus to push this team over the top, especially if his productivity decreases when/if he stops juicing. If the team is going to lose - lose with class. I think they could have lost and had class with Rolen, or a prospect.

Sorry - its winter pessimism creeping in. Maybe my opinion will change come spring.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 4:20 pm 
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Freed Roger wrote:

Sorry - its winter pessimism creeping in. Maybe my opinion will change come spring.


Winter is when we're supposed to be optimistic. We're tied for first place even as we speak. ;)


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 5:08 pm 
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Jmodene wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:

Sorry - its winter pessimism creeping in. Maybe my opinion will change come spring.


Winter is when we're supposed to be optimistic. We're tied for first place even as we speak. ;)


You are sounding like a cubfan.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 5:44 pm 
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Jmodene wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:

Sorry - its winter pessimism creeping in. Maybe my opinion will change come spring.


Winter is when we're supposed to be optimistic. We're tied for first place even as we speak. ;)



That's spring. He's fine.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 5:45 pm 
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Freed Roger wrote:
Its not like we can expect Glaus to push this team over the top, especially if his productivity decreases when/if he stops juicing.


Actually, he has stopped juicing. The shipments he reportedly received were 3+ years ago while he was with Anaheim and recovering from shoulder surgery. I'm not going to debate whether or not he's still juicing on the sly, but MLB investigated and didn't find enough to suspend him.

Quote:
A source in Florida with knowledge of the client list of Signature Pharmacy, an Orlando-based compound pharmacy, alleges that between September 2003 and May 2004, multiple shipments of nandrolone and testosterone were sent to Glaus at a Corona, Calif., address that traces to the player. Though the information only pertains to receipt and not actual use of steroids, both nandrolone and testosterone were on Major League Baseball's banned list at the time.


Source


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 5:53 pm 
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EastonBlues22 wrote:
The B-R park factors are just a lump sum compilation of all "offense" numbers. ESPN breaks it down into Runs, Hits, Walks, Doubles, Triples, HRs. In this case, where we're just concerned with Glaus' power numbers, the Run/Hit/Walk (and even Triples, which have a large speed component) numbers are just excess noise that confuses the real numbers we're interested in. In 2007 the Rogers Center happens to very hitter friendly when it comes to the HR/Double power aspect, and very pitcher friendly when it comes to Runs/Walks/Hits. In 2006 it was very hitter friendly in every category but walks, and especially hitter friendly in the power categories we're looking at.

In this instance, where we're concerned with a specific part of a player's game, the ESPN numbers are much more useful to us.

Thanks for explaining that. I know what park factors are used for, but I didn't really understand how they were computed.
Quote:
I've stated my reasons why I think he's going to have trouble with his feet moving forward, so we'll have to just agree to disagree there.

Fair enough. We'll just have to see how it plays out. I'm sticking to my .250/.350/.475 line, though.


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 8:02 pm 
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Phyrkrakr wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:
Its not like we can expect Glaus to push this team over the top, especially if his productivity decreases when/if he stops juicing.


Actually, he has stopped juicing. The shipments he reportedly received were 3+ years ago while he was with Anaheim and recovering from shoulder surgery. I'm not going to debate whether or not he's still juicing on the sly, but MLB investigated and didn't find enough to suspend him.

Quote:
A source in Florida with knowledge of the client list of Signature Pharmacy, an Orlando-based compound pharmacy, alleges that between September 2003 and May 2004, multiple shipments of nandrolone and testosterone were sent to Glaus at a Corona, Calif., address that traces to the player. Though the information only pertains to receipt and not actual use of steroids, both nandrolone and testosterone were on Major League Baseball's banned list at the time.


Source


The ole' rehabbing the shoulder injury excuse. I suppose it makes sense - pro athlete with a career-threatening surgery instead of getting a real doctor, rehabs it by calling a murky mail-order pharmacy. And man, those MLB investigations I'm sure its like scotland yard on the case. I guess if you believe, you believe. Got your Glaus jersey yet?


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PostPosted: January 16 08, 8:52 pm 
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Freed Roger wrote:
I guess if you believe, you believe. Got your Glaus jersey yet?


yeesh


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PostPosted: January 17 08, 12:52 am 
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Phyrkrakr wrote:
Fair enough. We'll just have to see how it plays out. I'm sticking to my .250/.350/.475 line, though.

That, in my opinion, is a very reasonable line to expect...it's actually right in line with my own expectations. My off the cuff numbers place his mean at an OPS+ of 117 with his first standard deviation (~68% chance) at 112-122 OPS+ and his second standard deviation (~95% chance) at 105-129 OPS+. FWIW, Duncan had a .259/.354/.480/115 OPS+ line and 21 HRs in 375 ABs in his (what many would consider to be disappointing) 2007 season. If that's a disappointing season for Duncan, then what are people going to think if Glaus puts up a similar season?

For that reason, most of my cautions have been directed at those who believe that Glaus is a mortal lock for 30 HRs. Between the park factors, the significant power decline due to the shoulder surgeries, and the further power decline (and missed games) that remain a distinct possibility as long as the health of his feet remains questionable...it just seems very likely to me that Glaus will come up (perhaps well) short of many people's expectations for his production. Depending on what you think about his defense, he's probably going to be around a two to four win player...not bad, but nothing spectacular either. Definitely not a difference maker that launches this team into the realm of contention in 2008 (and probably not 2009 either).

He's not a bad return at all given the situation, but he's not what this team needed most (parts for 2009+), and he doesn't have the top end potential of Rolen (6-7 wins) that, should the stars completely align, might actually prop up this team's hopes for contending in the short-term to realistic levels or garner more significant pieces for the future. Even if Glaus is the better bet to outperform Rolen next year (something which is obviously at least debateable given this thread), it's just not a good move given the larger circumstances of the team.

But we've talked about that ad nauseum, so I'll just let it go.


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PostPosted: January 20 08, 12:17 pm 
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http://videos.stltoday.com/p/video?id=1665093


just a short vid with glaus


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