Game Two: Post Game Thread

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EastonBlues22
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Post by EastonBlues22 »

greenback44 wrote:
Michael wrote:I'm a little shocked you guys think Molina is a better hitter than Duncan.
I don't think you should be. It takes a great deal of faith and humility to believe MGL's work does a better job of evaluating talent than your own eyes do or FOX's constant stream of junk stats does.

What shocks me more is that Tony LaRussa thinks Molina is a better hitter than Duncan or Rodriguez. I guess that was the point of Moneyball though.
When my eyes show me a guy with a cramping hamstring, I'm not going to put him in to pinch run...even if he normally runs a 4.19 second 40 yard dash. I'm going to put in the guy who's running 4.4 and hope for the best.

I'm as big a stat-head as the next guy, but only a fool ignores the current circumstances of a situation when making a decision. Wilson and Encarnacion are terrible hitters right now. Duncan has been a .206 hitter since the end of August. None of these three have been significantly better hitters than Molina for a long time...and they've been much worse over a recent extended period.

Still, you believe what you want to believe and place your eggs in whichever basket you choose.

The harsh reality of it is that the best hitter on the team grounded out that very same inning in spite of unworldly stats during the regular season/post-season/situationally/against this very pitcher and in whichever other way you would care to measure him up statistically. Nothing's a given.

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EastonBlues22
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Post by EastonBlues22 »

Just for fun I've calculated the lines for Wilson, Encarnacion, Duncan, JRod, and Molina from Sept 1st through the present:

Wilson: .216/.262/.402/.664
Encarnacion: .213/.291/.331/.622
Duncan: .206/.292/.449/.741
JRod: .233/.281/.267/.548
Molina: .257/.311/.389/.700

Over the better part of the last two months, none of these players have been hitting for average or getting on base as well as Molina. That's not a streak...that's a trend. Furthermore, Duncan is the only one who's hit for significantly more power.

We're not projecting statlines for next year...if we were, I think all of the players above would beat out Molina. But that doesn't mean that all of them are better bets to get on base now in a one AB situation...especially a one AB situation where you must either walk or put the ball in play.

Are they better hitters? Yes.

Are they hitting better now? No...I don't believe they are and that's something that I can confirm both statistically and visually.

Let me offer an analogy: The stock market has been increasing in value steadily over the last 15 years, but it's currently in a four month slide. If you had to predict whether it was going to go up or down only tomorrow...which would you choose? If you had to predict whether it was going to be up or down after all of next year...which would you choose? Recent trends matter, but they don't outweigh long-term trends when big picture predictions are being made.

Anyway, I'm not trying to argue that Molina was by far and away the best choice...I'm just trying to say that there were no choices that were far and away better than letting him hit for himself. Just alternatives that were roughly enough equivalent that there was no clear advantage in a one AB situation to having them hit.

Duncan could have certainly been used...I wouldn't have been upset at all beyond the fact that he was used for Molina instead of Wilson (who is really the one who should have been PH for).

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Post by Michael »

EastonBlues22 wrote:
Arthur Dent wrote: Luck in the same way shooting free throws involves luck. In principle, if you made the same exact motions everytime, you'd make every shot, but it never works out that way. Hence, "skill" has to be expressed in the form of a probability. As with any probability, there will random variations that we can call "luck".
I don't think shooting a free throw involves luck at all. If you miss, it's because you didn't execute...maybe due to muscle fatigue, maybe due to concentration, maybe because you're winded after a hard foul, or maybe because your form is such that it's just hard to repeat it exactly the same time after time. Some people overcome those variables more consistently than others for whatever reasons...but nobody can execute perfectly every time. That doesn't mean they're unlucky...they missed because the execution wasn't perfect.

Unlucky is when you do execute perfectly and the result is bad. Perfect execution on a free throw will always result in a made free throw. Perfect execution on a swing in baseball will not always result in a hit...but it should always result in a hard hit ball somewhere. If the ball isn't hit hard, then some part of the execution was off (whether in the mechanics of the swing itself, or in the pitch recognition and tracking).
Let's say you have a 10 sided die with 3 sides that have an "H" (hit) and 7 sides with an "O" (out). Now if you throw that dice 600 times I'm sure at certain times you'll roll a bunch of "H's" together. Are you are hot during those times? I'd say no.

I'm sure most of you will point out these are human beings so my example is nonsense. However unless there is an injury I believe your camp is giving meaning to randomness.

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Post by GatewaySnayke »

Like they say, "the playoffs is about who gets hot at the right time."
And Yadier Molina, he of the current 4-for-18 is not "hot."

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Post by jim »

EastonBlues22 wrote:
jim wrote: And every piece of objective data say the opposite for hitters - they don't matter.

I PH for Molina there.
The objective data tells you who's most likely to do what in a vacuum situation...or over a long period of time when anomalies have a chance to even themselves out.

In a very specific situation, you can either treat it like a vacuum situation and do what the stats say...figuring you'll come out ahead in the long run if the stats are accurate predictors.

Or, if there is no long run, you can augment the stats with the other things you know about the situation in order to try to come up with the best choice. This is where watching closely how people have been performing recently (or something else) can help you make a judgement about the situation. It's not ignoring the stats, it's understanding that raw data that's gathered over a long period of time and over a wide variety of situations isn't necessarily the best predictor for what will happen in one very specific one at a specific point in time.

Players get hurt and it alters their swing. They're in a slump so they start to press and it alters their approach at the plate. A lot of things happen that can mitigate what the stats might otherwise say.
I agree, but I guess I just assumed that like me, you don't really see anything different about Molina to suggest he's become a good hitter. I assumed you were just going on recent trends.

So you think Yadi has become a good hitter, at least for a short stretch? Do you think he's different than the hitter we saw all summer long?

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Post by Arthur Dent »

EastonBlues22 wrote:Anyway, I'm not trying to argue that Molina was by far and away the best choice...I'm just trying to say that there were no choices that were far and away better than letting him hit for himself. Just alternatives that were roughly enough equivalent that there was no clear advantage in a one AB situation to having them hit.
I know very little about the stock market, but I remeber reading about some studies that showed that people who attempted to time the market tended to do worse than those who just buy and hold. Short term trends may look like information, but that may or may not be true.

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Post by Bo Hart »

jim wrote:I agree, but I guess I just assumed that like me, you don't really see anything different about Molina to suggest he's become a good hitter. I assumed you were just going on recent trends.

So you think Yadi has become a good hitter, at least for a short stretch? Do you think he's different than the hitter we saw all summer long?
Michael wrote:Let's say you have a 10 sided die with 3 sides that have an "H" (hit) and 7 sides with an "O" (out). Now if you throw that dice 600 times I'm sure at certain times you'll roll a bunch of "H's" together. Are you are hot during those times? I'd say no.

I'm sure most of you will point out these are human beings so my example is nonsense. However unless there is an injury I believe your camp is giving meaning to randomness.
How about when a hitter is swinging the bat well, and they'll get an interview and you'll hear him say, "I'm seeing the ball well." Is that just a fabrication on their part? Or possible just some psychological affect taking place? They're getting good bounces, so now in hindsight they think they're hitting well?

Are you guys telling me you don't believe there's such thing as a streak? Do you think the Scott Rolen in Games 1-6 -- who popped up seemingly popped up 75% of the time he came up -- was the same Scott Rolen that was driving the ball off of Billy Wagner, hitting would-be home runs off of Oliver Perez, and knocking a couple of extra-base hits off of Justin Verlander?

Chris Shelton hit 10 home runs and had an OPS of 1.186 in April. Over the entire remainder of the season, he hit just 6 home runs; his highest OPS during the remaining months of the year was .730. Was he just getting lucky and guessing right to start the year? There's absolutely no chance he was on a 'streak' of any sort?

If, hypothetically, you were a Jim Edmonds advocate: can you tell me that the .796 OPS Edmonds of June was the same 1.028 OPS Edmonds of July? A 'streaky' hitter is nothing more than yet another baseball fallacy?


To be blunt, I think that suggesting that streaks are non-existant is... well, absurd. Why? Simply because you're trying to analyze something statistically that is statistically intangible... you don't think that a hitter is more confident if he's 10 for his last 20? (And I'll get a response like, "Hey, these are major leaguers. They have all the confidence in the world, it doesn't have any effect on them.") But confidence is overrated and probably doesn't have much impact on the game, because it can't be measured. I bet confidence (or lack thereof) in the sinker of Jason Marquis has nothing to do with his struggles.

Juan Encarnacion hit .367 in June. Only 98 at-bats, yes, I know. Sample size plays a role. But aside from that: if you're going to tell me that Juan was taking the exact same approach, had the exact same demeanor, and was taking the same quality of swings in June as he is now... and that the whole difference was bad luck... well, then, I guess I don't know what to say.


I'll finish with this: I tend to agree that watching with your own set of eyes tends to be subjective.. psychologically, you draw your own conclusions and are influenced by emotions and whatnot. But... that doesn't change the fact that, in my opinion, there's no possible way that you can tell me the only difference between Yadier Molina now and Yadier Molina in the middle of the year is "good" luck.

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Post by planet planet »

Tango! Can you chime in on the thoughts the last few pages of this thread? I think they're all good arguments from opposite perspectives. I have a feeling which way you'll side, but still be interesting to get your take.

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Post by jim »

Kyle - you are really taking a very simple comment I made and making it way, way more complicated than it was meant to be.

Of course streaks occur, I see them all the time. And no doubt there are some that are mechanical in nature - i.e. "seeing the ball better".

I'm saying you can't take the stats from 20 AB's or so and make any sort of predictive statement about a hitter, other than the hitter will in general regress to his mean. Tango showed in his book that hitters hot streaks and cold streaks don't exist in general. Hitters who go on a tear for a five game stretch tend to pretty much hit their norm on game six. Hitters don't go on streaks, hot or cold, of any significance. Period. It's a fact.

That is NOT the same statement as saying Molina (or insert anyone else) goes on a hot or cold streak. Clearly in the specific cases they do, but I am talking about the general case. And since we know that the general case says that hitters "streaks" are not predictive of future results, that tells me that I can't look at the stats from the last 20 AB's and make a conclusion - other than hitters regress back to their mean.

Since the numbers don't tell us anything about streaks, then it comes to deciding whether what we saw with Molina is different. Has he closed a hole in his swing, or done something mechanical that gave him those results? Well, he has changed something mechanical, in fact I find it hard to remember a week during the season where he didn't change something mechanically. Is that the reason, do I see something in those 20 AB's that suggest that he has fixed something, or done something different that will allow him to hit, at least for a short time, like he did during the NLCS?

I haven't. I don't see it. I see a pretty weak major league baseball player having a good week. He is fully capable of those weeks, that much I have always known.

I just don't expect it to continue, because a) there is no statistical reason why it should and b) I don't see anything different that would cause it to be.

Molina should have been PH for.

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Post by Bo Hart »

Fair enough. When you elaborated it was much, much more level-headed. Admittedly, part of it was my fault because yes, I did make a lot of assumptions based on just a couple of short comments you made.

That said, I do think he's made adjustments. I can remember a handful of times right off the bat where he has taken the ball to opposite field (yesterday's hit in the 8th I believe, the bases loaded double in Game 2, etc), and that's not giving it any thought... those immediately come to mind; this isn't your typical ground-ball-to-short Molina, he seems to be making solid contact and going with the pitch -- both signs of someone who is going well.

And also: what type of message does it send to a player when he's hitting .325 in the playoffs and you lift him late in the game? I know he's a big boy and should be able to handle it, but I think you're taking the bat out of a hot hitter's hand and you're risking messing with him psychologically.

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