Michael wrote:
Let's say you have a 10 sided die with 3 sides that have an "H" (hit) and 7 sides with an "O" (out). Now if you throw that dice 600 times I'm sure at certain times you'll roll a bunch of "H's" together. Are you are hot during those times? I'd say no.
I'm sure most of you will point out these are human beings so my example is nonsense. However unless there is an injury I believe your camp is giving meaning to randomness.
Let's completely ignore the human element for a minute to focus only on the numbers:
Molina is a career .238/.291/.342 hitter with a 1.60 GB:FB, .68 BB:K, and a 18.7/46.5/34.8 LD/GB/FB. Over the past two months his numbers are .257/.311/.389 with a 1.125 BB/K ratio. This year he's got a 1.14 G:F and a 18.5/42.5/39.1 LD/GB/FB. What's more, over the last two months he's been on his way to hitting about 18/35/47...something he's done for the first time in his career. Here's the graph:
His BABIP is, if anything, unusually low even for even him this year, and it has
not spiked upward during this two month hot streak:
While the positive increase in results is certainly small...only about a two hit difference and a .070 OPS increase in the last one and two-thirds month, there is little doubt that Molina has been a
different hitter over those last two months in ways that seem very un-random to me...and, even in some ways over this entire last year. Now, if you want to chalk his BB:K, G:F, and LD/GB/FB to luck as well...well, I can't stop you. But the fact remains that there are significant differences in those areas from his career norms, and they aren't nearly as affected by "luck" as something like a ball in play is.
Continuing with only numbers (and noting that JRod only has 30 ABs in this span):
Wilson is ~135 OPS points under his career avg since Sept 1st. Encarnacion ~135, Duncan ~205, and JRod ~265...these are all differences that are at least twice as significant as Molina's...if not more. All of them, except Encarnacion, have seen their BB:K ratios decrease. Encarnacion's BABIP has steadily decreased for the last two-thirds of the season...now it's down in the .270 range. Bad luck? Or symptomatic of the fact that went from a 20/40/40 LD/GB/FB hitter to a 20/53/27 hitter over that span? Coincidently, Encarnacion has been a terrible postseason hitter over his career...and his career postseason LD/GB/FB is 18.2/49.1/32.7. Since 2002 he's a 21/42/37 hitter. He obviously hits his best when his GB:FB is almost 1:1...and, lately, he's nowhere near that. He's much closer to where he is when he's batting his worst...he's hitting on top of almost everything. How many of his outs this postseason on balls in play have been weak ground balls? His career postseason G:F is 1.5...career 1.13...last two months it has been in the 1.70 range.
I could go on, but I think you see what I'm getting at. Players aren't automatons with static abilities...their abilities change depending on a variety of factors. There's a lot of statistical data that can be used to show that the extended "slumps" and "hot streaks" that various players are in aren't just random occurances...
in many cases where the streak has become an extended trend, they're the product of tangible differences in the execution of the players. Now, you can claim that those differences in execution are random as well if you want...but I don't buy that things like BB:K and LD/GB/FB are random events. They may see fluctuation, but they are largely representative of how well a player is seeing the ball and centering the bat on the ball.
[FWIW, Duncan (~310) and JRod (~335) each have about half a full season's worth of ABs in their major league career...so, the numbers we have for them aren't necessarily set in stone as being representative of their true abilities anyway.]