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PostPosted: November 7 07, 12:30 pm 
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All-Star

Joined: April 18 06, 7:31 pm
Posts: 1268
Location: Tucson, Arizona waiting for a Tesla
TimeForGuinness wrote:
Why are you so against believing that humans are doing harm to the ecosystem that they are living in by releasing incredible amounts of greenhouse gases?

Just curious...but isn't it just better in general to be green and clean?


/CO2 makes the baby Jesus cry



:D
ABSOLUTELY! Why do you think I have an electric car in my signature space. I'm EXTREMELY PRO-ELECTRIC CARS, SOLAR ENERGY, Green Conservativism. That's what's so funny to me. I am FOR being better stewards of the environment. I just can't believe people every 10 years that trot out all this stupid scare crap just to get more funding for their university projects from Gov't funding (that's our money, BTW) get to take the moral high ground by framing a debate in a totally illogical manner and GET AWAY WITH IT (!) even after being proved that there is NO CONSENSUS on why it WAS hotter in 1998.

Overpopulation and mass starvation is next, I suppose. :?

](*,)


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 12:33 pm 
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Bringer of FRBG
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once again:

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PostPosted: November 7 07, 12:39 pm 
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Arthur Dent wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
If it is real, I think we can probably adapt to whatever changes come about, and will have the motivation and ability to reverse it. Then we can go back to our regularly scheduled gobbling of earth's resources.

I'd say that's a very reckless approach. Shooting the rapids unprepared just hoping we'll make it through OK. We don't have to go back to living in caves to deal with this problem. In fact, there was another giant study released recently on the likely economic costs of global warming which concluded that the costs of dealing with it would be less than the cost of letting it play out.


I didn't really call it an approach. And I said it's not an excuse for polluting and that good things are being done in the process of trying to stop it. We're already taking steps to decrease our impact, and have been for years. Not fast enough perhaps, but the effort is being made.

I'm just saying we can expect mild changes over the course of time, and we likely will have the time if it becomes necessary to halt certain practices altogether. I don't think it's going to come to that.

As far as Tsunamis and the like, that's definitely a stretch as far as I'm concerned. I don't think anyone's demonstrated a conclusive link between global warming and frequent strong hurricanes, for example. The planet has been wracked by far worse than we've ever seen over the centuries, and we don't have enough data to demonstrate that the frequency is increasing relative to the earth's history.

In any case, I do sort of see all this as delaying the inevitable. There's nothing in our current way of living to suggest we're not going to screw ourselves one way or the other when it comes to living on this planet. Everyone is learning to want more things, consider those things essential, and for the most part those things are created through artificial means. That means using natural resources. Barring a catastrophe which will either set us back so much that we can't do these things, or force us to change our lifestyles dramatically, we're going to go plunder this sucker dry. That's way down the road, but it's just a matter of time. Until we become space nomads of course.


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 12:44 pm 
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http://tinyurl.com/2e4x5hy

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Posts: 24838
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ghostrunner wrote:
Until we become space nomads of course.


When we're space nomads, I want an LCD, not a plasma GPS on my space chariot.


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 1:17 pm 
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Location: Tucson, Arizona waiting for a Tesla
"Dr. Ball is a renowned environmental consultant and former [retired] professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg. Dr. Ball has served on many local and national committees and as Chair of Provincial boards on water management, environmental issues and sustainable development. Dr. Ball has given over 600 public talks over the last decade on science and the environment. He is the co-author of the book Eighteenth Century Naturalists of Hudson Bay (2004 - McGill/Queens University Press) with Dr. Stuart Houston, one of the World's leading authorities on arctic birds," his NRSP profile states (accessed November 21, 2006).


And this invalidates Dr. Ball, how?


What's wrong with Wojik's credentials? You mean because of his clients?

Dr. David E. Wojick has a Ph.D. in mathematical logic and philosophy of science from the University of Pittsburgh, and a B.S. in civil engineering from Carnegie Mellon University. He has been on the faculty of Carnegie Mellon, where he helped found both the Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and the Department of Philosophy. He has also served with the Office of Naval Research and the Naval Research Laboratory. He is presently a freelance writer covering climate change issues for Electricity Daily, and a policy analyst.


Wouldn't your clients need to pay you for your data conclude their need for such relevant data? If you weren't qualified to deliver credible data, they wouldn't pay you for your opinion would they? How does your expertise disqualify you because of your client?


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 1:27 pm 
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Red Lobster for the seafood lover in you

Joined: May 1 06, 2:41 pm
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Broken record needs hammer?


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 1:27 pm 
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Everday Unicorn
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Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
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MaskedMan wrote:
"Dr. Ball is a renowned environmental consultant and former [retired] professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg. Dr. Ball has served on many local and national committees and as Chair of Provincial boards on water management, environmental issues and sustainable development. Dr. Ball has given over 600 public talks over the last decade on science and the environment. He is the co-author of the book Eighteenth Century Naturalists of Hudson Bay (2004 - McGill/Queens University Press) with Dr. Stuart Houston, one of the World's leading authorities on arctic birds," his NRSP profile states (accessed November 21, 2006).


And this invalidates Dr. Ball, how?


What's wrong with Wojik's credentials? You mean because of his clients?

Dr. David E. Wojick has a Ph.D. in mathematical logic and philosophy of science from the University of Pittsburgh, and a B.S. in civil engineering from Carnegie Mellon University. He has been on the faculty of Carnegie Mellon, where he helped found both the Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and the Department of Philosophy. He has also served with the Office of Naval Research and the Naval Research Laboratory. He is presently a freelance writer covering climate change issues for Electricity Daily, and a policy analyst.


Wouldn't your clients need to pay you for your data conclude their need for such relevant data? If you weren't qualified to deliver credible data, they wouldn't pay you for your opinion would they? How does your expertise disqualify you because of your client?


Because what he's doing is not research. It's advocacy. You provide the client with information conforming to the viewpoint that they are paying you to deliver. "Delivering credible data" means delivering the data that you hand select, such as "it was cold in Argentina this year, therefore, the globe is cooling." Not longitudinal climatological study.


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 1:37 pm 
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Joined: April 18 06, 7:31 pm
Posts: 1268
Location: Tucson, Arizona waiting for a Tesla
If you're looking for credibility lets try...

Dr. James J. O’Brien who is a Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography at Florida State University.

He is also the State of Florida Climatologist. His website has his entire vita.

In 2000, he graduated his 32nd PhD. Students and 66 MS students. He is the Director of The Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.




KYOTO CAN’T HELP, BUT IT COULD HURT!!

by Dr. James J. O’Brien



President George W. Bush is taking heat for his stand on the Kyoto Protocol. I am a climate scientist and I am concerned – not about the U.S. not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, but about the missing facts in the discussion.

Nearly all of the physical climate scientists I know agree that minor limiting of carbon dioxide by the Kyoto Protocol will not stop the climate changes caused by the observed increase in carbon dioxide. And, I caution you not to believe the non-fact that CO2 is poisonous to our planet. Plants, forests, and crops all love the stuff. Carbon dioxide makes forests grow. If we limit CO2 too much, we will harm our agriculture.

How did we get in this confusing situation? It is because foreign climate modelers have used poor numerical models to estimate the change in the Earth’s climate 100 years into the future. They began with the current level of CO2 and projected one percent increases for each year.

Recent regional studies around the United States used fairly decent English climate change models and the "hot as Hades" Canadian models with CO2 concentrations that double in 75 years.

Unfortunately, no American Institute has had the resources – namely computer power – to integrate a good climate change model. This is very sad. Reports from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences document the pressing need to supply U.S. climate scientists with adequate computers so they can conduct this important research. Fortunately, the White House has recognized this need, and perhaps, by 2003, the U.S. will make the investment. (If you believe that bad climate changes are about to happen, don’t you also believe that the U.S. should invest in equipment to provide the best calculations and estimates of the future of climate change?)

The U.S. faced a similar type of foreign relations problem in the late 1960s. The myth of that era was that the ocean was full of fish that could feed the starving world, and the bottom of the ocean was covered with minerals that could make everyone rich. The United Nations proposed a Law of The Sea that would force the U.S. to pay to collect all this food and wealth, and distribute it to the rest of the world. We prevailed by proposing a decade of ocean exploration to study the problem. It cost $150 million to prove that these expectations were not true; but at the same time we were able to modernize the oceanography textbooks. We need to do the same thing for climate change. We need to invest $25 million a year for 10 years to settle this complicated debate. That amounts to less than the cost of one fighter plane!

The Earth’s climate is very complex, when you consider all that relates to the air, ocean, sky, the land, and all of the Earth’s inhabitants. Our climate system can adjust to handle massive changes. The ocean offers a prime example of this. The ocean can absorb as much carbon dioxide as we produce, it just can’t do it quickly enough. We must consider all of these components when we make long-term predictions.

Let’s look at another oceanography fact that shows how leaving out one climate component can skew scientific findings. There is evidence that our usual weather storms over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans seem to have been stronger in recent years. We record this in the wind-wave climate. When the winds are stronger, more whitecaps appear in the ocean; and these white, foaming areas reflect more sunlight. Scientists from California have recently estimated that the increased whitecaps may reflect enough heat to account for up to 40 percent of the increased heat storage due to trapping of heat energy by increased CO2.

Would you believe that these physics facts are not included in any of the foreign global climate change models? Hopefully, they will be in an American model, when we get around to providing our own research.

Here in Florida, the EPA has tried to scare everyone with overestimates of sea level rise. They say that most of Florida south of Orlando will disappear, because several years ago, poorer Earth/climate models, which omitted all of the ocean data, estimated a 6-foot rise by 2050. This would scare anybody! The fact is, the global average rise in the sea level in 2100 is estimated, by using the foreign models, to be 20 inches. While improvements in the climate models have yielded revised estimated of only 20 inches, the EPA has not revised its website information, and is still predicting that all levels up to 3.5 feet will disappear by 2100.

Clearly the models need improvement. The U.S. must commit funds to research global climate change to discover what is brought about by natural and man-induced activities. This is vitally important for both our economy and our planet.


Lengthy Resume:

BORN: August 10, 1935
PRESENT ADDRESS:
I 3210 E. Lakeshore Drive
Tallahassee, Florida 32312
PRESENT POSITION:

Robert 0. Lawton Distinguished Professor, Meteorology & Oceanography
Director, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, Florida 32306-2840
(850) 644-4581 - Phone
(850) 644-4841 - Fax
Email: jim.obrien@coaps.fsu.edu
Internet: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu
DEGREES:
I
I
Texas A&M University, Ph.D., Meteorology, 1966
Texas A&M University, M.S., Meteorology, 1964
Rutgers University, B.S., Chemistry, 1957

HONORARY AND PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES:
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
American Assoc. Advancement of Science, Fellow
American Geophysical Union, Fellow
American Meteorological Society, Fellow
Royal Meteorological Society, Fellow
Oceanographical Society of Japan
SIAM
Chi Epsilon Pi
Phi Kappa Phi
Pi Mu Epsilon
Scarlet Key
Sigma Xi

HONORS:

Medal of Honor, Liege University, Belgium, 1978
Fellow, American Meteorological Society, 1981
Fellow, Royal Meteorological Society, 1983
Secretary of Navy Professor in Oceanography, 1985
Sverdrup Gold Medal in Air-Sea Interaction, 1987
Fellow, American Geophysical Union, 1987
Fellow, Amer. Assoc. Advancement of Science, 1988
ONR Distinguished Ocean Educator, 1989
Distinguished Research Professor, FSU, 1991
Foreign Fellow, Russian Academy of Natural Science, 1994
Medal of Honor, Ocean university of Quindao, China, 1999
Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor, FSU, 1999
Member, The Norwegian Academy of Science and letters, 2000
Member, Rutgers Distinguished Alumni Hall of Fame, 2002
Fellow, World Innovation Foundation, 2004
Medalist, Florida Academy of Sciences , 2006
UDA Prize, Japan Oceanographic Society, 2006

CITATIONS:

American Men of Science
Who's Who in the United States
Who's Who in the South East
Who's Who in Frontier Science and Technology
Personalities in America
International Leaders in Achievement
Who's Who in Technology
Who's Who in America
Who's Who in Science and Engineering
2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century Back to the top

RESEARCH POSITIONS AND ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS:

1957-58 Chemist, E. I. dePont de Nemours and Company, Inc.
1958-60 Weather Officer, U.S. Air Force
1960-62 Technical Representative, E. I. dePont de Nemours and Company, Inc.
1962-65 NASA Trainee, Texas A&M University
1966-67 Advanced Study Group Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
1967 (summer) Visiting Lecturer in Meteorology, Florida State University
1967-68 Research Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
1969-72 Associate Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University
1969- Associate Member of the Institute of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, present Florida State University
1969-1971 Visiting Research Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric (summers) Research, Boulder, Colorado
1972-1973 Visiting Professor, Department of Oceanography, Oregon State University
1972-74 Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University
1974-76 Program Director, Physical Oceanography, Office of Naval Research
1972 - Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State present University
1985- Secretary of Navy Professor, Florida State University
1991- Distinguished Research Professor, Florida State University
1994- Director, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
1996 Adjunct Professor, University of Miami, Rosenthiel School of Atmospheric and Marine Science
1999- Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor Award, Florida State University

PROFESSIONAL AND UNIVERSITY SERVICE ACTIVITIES: Back to the top

Appointed to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, 1999-
Appointed as State of Florida Climatologist, 1999
International Climate institute, Modelling Advisory Committee, 1998-
Chair Board on Ocean & Atmospheres, NASULGC, 1997-1998
Member,Board on Ocean & Atmospheres, NASULGC, 2002-2005
President, Atmospheric & Hydrologic Science, AAAS, 1995-1998
NASA, GSFC Advisory Panel for Data Assimilation Office, 1992-1994
NOAA, NCDC Climate & Global Change Advisory Panel, Member, 1991-92
Sverdrup Gold Medal Committee, AMS, 1990-92, Chairman, 1993-97
Board of Advisors, Naval Postgraduate School, California, 1990-1994
NAS, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Member, 1989-1993
NAS, Ocean Studies Board, Member, 1988-1991
NAS, Committee on Ocean's Role in Global Change, Chairman, 1989-91
NAS, Committee on Naval Studies, Member, 1989-92
NAS, Committee on International Ocean Affairs, Member, 1989-91
SCOR/IOC Working Group, CCCO, Member, 1987-1990, Chairman, 1990-93
J. Geophysical Research, Oceans, Editor 1984-88, 1988-90
IAPSO, President, 1987-91
IAPSO, Vice President, 1983-87
Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review, 1992-97
Associate Editor, Continental Shelf Research, 1986-
Associate Editor, International J. Math and Computer Modelling, 1984-
ENSO Alert Panel for U.S. TOGA Office, Chairman, 1985-87
WOCE Theoretical Panel, Member, 1984-1986
NASA Satellite Surface Stress Committee, S3 , Chairman, 1981-84
JOI Satellite Planning Committee, 1983-84
INO Advisory Panel, 1986-87
Member of Oceanography Assessment Advisory Panel, OTA, Congress, 1980
U.S. Committee for IUGG, 1980-1984, NAS, Chairman, IAPSO Subcommittee
President, Oceanography Section, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 1980-1982
Associate Editor, J. Physical Oceanography, 1970-1986
Associate Editor, 1975-1978 IUGG Quadrennial Report, 1978-1979
Co-editor, Progress in Oceanography, Pergamon Press, 1977-1984
Associate Editor, Geophysical Research Letters, 1977-1979
IUGG Executive Council, Member, 1987-91, co-opted member, 1991-1993
SCOR Executive Council, Member, 1987-91, co-opted member, 1991-92
SCOR, U.S. Delegate, 1991-93
SCOR Working Group 73, Ecological Theory in Relation to Biological Oceanography, 1983-85
SCOR Scientific Rapporteur on Mathematical Modelling, 1978-80
SCOR Working Group, CCCO, corresponding member, 1979-1982
SCOR Working Group 49, Math Model of Ocean Processes, Chair, 1977-1978
SCOR Working Group 55, Prediction of El Nio, 1977-1983
SCOR Committee on Oceanography for GARP, 1977
SCOR Working Group 36, Upwelling Editorial Committee, 1978-1981
SCOR Working Group 59, Math Models in Bio. Oceanography, 1978-1986
NAS, Naval Studies Committee of Ocean Science Board, 1987-88
NAS, Committee to evaluate the MMS Outer Continental Shelf, 1986-1992
NAS, Physical Oceanography for MMS OCS Studies, 1986-1989
NAS, Committee on Oceans and Climate, Member, 1986-89
NAS, Comm. on Computers for Oceanography in the 1980's, Chairman, 1980-81
NAS, Committee on Evaluation of BLM-OCS Program, 1977
NAS, Committee on Biological Effects of a Sea-level Panama Canal, 1977
AGU Bowie Medal Committee, 1991-92, 1993-94
AGU Ewing Medal Committee, 1988-95
AGU Executive Committee for Ocean Sciences, 1988-90
AGU Editors Committee, 1987-89
AGU Membership Committee, 1982-84
AGU Oceanography Section, Executive Committee Member, 1982-87
AGU Oceanography Section, Chairman, Education Committee, 1982-84
AGU Search Committee for GRL Editor, 1979
AGU Committee on Coastal and Estuarine Regimes, 1978-80
AGU Conference on Oceanic Fronts, Member of Program Committee
UCAR SPEC, Member, 1979-80, 1980-81
UCAR Evaluation Committee on Oceanography, Member, 1977
Chairman, Physical Committee, CUEA-IDOE, NSF, 1973-74
Co-Director, CUE-I, II (Coastal Upwelling Experiment),1972-1973
10th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 21st, 22nd, 25th, Liege Colloquium on Ocean Hydrodynamics, 1978, 1979, 1980,
1982, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1993 Member of Scientific Organizing Committee
Editor, The Sea, Volume 6, 1976. Interscience
NCAR Computing Advisory Panel, 1972-74; Chair, 1973-74; Member, 1981-1984
UNOLS Committee on Aircraft in Oceanography, 1972
Chairman, NATO Working Group, Spatial Inhomogeneity in the Oceans
A.M.S. Fellows Committee, 1990-91
A.M.S. Committee on Air-Sea Interaction , 1975-1978; Chairman, 1977
A.M.S. Committee on Awards, Member, 1983-84
Equatorial Theoretical Panel, Member (Sponsored by NSF)
BIOMASS, ad hoc Modelling Group, Member, 1983-84
Graduate Student Council, Texas A&M University
Director, Graduate Studies, Dept.of Meteorology, FSU, 82-83, 87-89, 92-93,94-98
Dynamics Major Counselor, Department of Meteorology, FSU, 1969-72
Chairman, Foreign Language Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1970-72
Operational and Planning Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1970-72
Admission Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1971-72, 1984-85
Administrative Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1971-1972, 1976, 1988-89
Faculty Search Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1972
Faculty Affairs Committee, Department of Meteorology, 1976-present; Chairman, 1984-85, 1989-90, 1990-91
Meteorology Department Admissions Committee, Co-chairman, 1976-1977, 1977-78, 1978-79; Chairman,
1979-1981, 1985-1987, member 1987-
Meteorology Department, Dynamics Option Chairman, 1977-78, member 1977-
Natural Science Area Promotion and Tenure Committee, FSU, 1976-1977
Division I Promotion and Tenure Committee, FSU, 1976-1977
FSU Review Committee for Computer Science Ph.D. Program, Chairman, 1989-90
Chairman, SCRI Superchair, FSU Foundation, 1991-94
Chairman, CSIT SP USERS Committee, 2002-

Reviewer: Back to the top

Applied Mechanics Reviews, 1967-1972
J. Comp. Physics
J. Geophysical Research
J. Marine Research
J. Physical Oceanography
J. Atmospheric Sciences
J. Applied Meteorology
J. Fluid Dynamics
Deep-Sea Research
Monthly Weather Review
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Science
National Science Foundation
Office of Naval Research
NASA
Department of Energy
Environmental Protection Agency
NOAA
International Science Foundation


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 1:41 pm 
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Hall Of Famer

Joined: April 25 06, 6:43 pm
Posts: 11476
Location: Austin
ghostrunner wrote:
We're already taking steps to decrease our impact, and have been for years. Not fast enough perhaps, but the effort is being made.

We have made great progress reducing many pollutants, however CO2 is not one of them. Our production of CO2 continues to increase.

ghostrunner wrote:
I'm just saying we can expect mild changes over the course of time, and we likely will have the time if it becomes necessary to halt certain practices altogether.

We do have the time and that time is now. There are a number of disturbing positive feedback cycles that could cause warming to become self sustaining.

ghostrunner wrote:
I don't think anyone's demonstrated a conclusive link between global warming and frequent strong hurricanes, for example. The planet has been wracked by far worse than we've ever seen over the centuries, and we don't have enough data to demonstrate that the frequency is increasing relative to the earth's history.

The general view is that global warming does not increase the frequency of hurricanes but does cause those hurricanes that do form to become much stronger.

ghostrunner wrote:
In any case, I do sort of see all this as delaying the inevitable. There's nothing in our current way of living to suggest we're not going to screw ourselves one way or the other when it comes to living on this planet. Everyone is learning to want more things, consider those things essential, and for the most part those things are created through artificial means. That means using natural resources. Barring a catastrophe which will either set us back so much that we can't do these things, or force us to change our lifestyles dramatically, we're going to go plunder this sucker dry. That's way down the road, but it's just a matter of time. Until we become space nomads of course.

It doesn't make sense to only consider the super long run. As Keynes said, "In the long run, we're all dead." Delaying the inevitable is absolutely worthwhile. But yeah, I'm pretty pessimistic about humanity's ability to handle problems of this sort. We're too short-sighted and selfish.


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PostPosted: November 7 07, 2:00 pm 
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Red Lobster for the seafood lover in you

Joined: May 1 06, 2:41 pm
Posts: 50681
Hey masked - O'Brien is in bed with Exxon.


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