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PostPosted: April 11 18, 2:22 pm 
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Mayor of GRB
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PostPosted: April 11 18, 2:36 pm 
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has a link from 538 to share
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PostPosted: April 11 18, 2:36 pm 
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G. Keenan wrote:
thrill wrote:
lukethedrifter wrote:
You guys are crazy or overly optimistic if you think this is the end for Republican Party. Unless you mean for like 30 months or so.

To kill the Republican Party, you'd have to have a Democratic Party with an implementable plan. So, yeah, not gonna happen.


I'm not saying Trump is the end of the Republican party. I'm saying Trump has remade the Republican party in his image (for the time being). "Mainstream" Republicans have no place in Trump's GOP, unless they are willing to get on board with stuff like the wall, overt racism, purging immigrants, and haphazard foreign and economic policy. The part of the GOP base that has no interest in the value of expertise has taken over.

Unless Trump's image becomes tarnished in the eyes of his base this is how it's going to stay within the GOP for the foreseeable future. Moderates are not going to win Republican primaries while Trump is out there doing his thing and keeping his mob of Archie Bunkers riled up. If Trump, on the other hand, ends up in prison or ends up resigning in disgrace, maybe the slightly-less-bad wing of the GOP can regain control.


There were plenty of supposedly more moderate Republicans already in office when Trump came in. And none of them have stood up to Trump. They all caved. It didn't take much because they actually agreed with most of what Trump has done anyway. Republicans let Trump do this to them. But yeah for the ones that aren't in office yet and are running in primaries, they will adopt the Trump playbook, because all the other leaders caved and didn't offer any kind of alternative way to be a conservative.


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 8:55 am 
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There's someone in my head but it's not me
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Based on his interview this morning, Ryan certainly will continue to be Trump's lackey until he leaves office in Jan.


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 9:44 am 
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lukethedrifter wrote:
You guys are crazy or overly optimistic if you think this is the end for Republican Party. Unless you mean for like 30 months or so.


About that long, yes. And here's what I see.

The average first-term POTUS loses seats in his first mid-term, it's just the nature of the country. With a 24-seat edge it's likely the GOP loses the House just based on the natural swing of things. This, however, is not the natural swing of things, this is the most divisive person in the history of American politics. The Democrats are more likely than not going to take the House, and to not get routed the GOP is going to have to ask itself how much money and effort it puts into protecting blue-state GOP seats in places like the northeast and other suburbs where those incumbents will need to stay away from the far right to win.

Couple that with the Mueller stuff. The Watergate timeline compared to Trump-Russia is running pretty parallel. It took a bit over 2 years between the Watergate break-in and Nixon resigning, and much like Watergate we have already seen a handful of guilty pleas copped: Flynn, Gates, Manafort, Papadopoulos, plus we've seen the unprecedented raid on the office of a sitting president's attorney. This thing could come to somewhat of a head in the next 12 months, and in 8 months we should have a Democrat controlled House and we might have a Democrat controlled Senate, meaning the leadership in committee will no longer show disinterest in stalling or waiving any hearings re Trump and Russia.

So if sometime in mid-2019 Trump is looking at either impeachment or heavy charges from the Mueller crew, with a House that is unsympathetic, he gone. Again to tag this to Watergate:
9/74: Nixon resigns
74 Midterms: Democrats gain 49 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate, plus 4 gubernatorial seats.
76 General: Carter takes the White House, Democrats easily hold the House picking up 1 seat, hold a 61-38 edge in the Senate.
78 Midterms: GOP starts coming back.

So yeah something like 30-40 months, since politics is cyclical anyway and there could be a great deal of disillusionment with whichever Dem becomes POTUS in 2020 since, like Obama, they'll be cleaning up the mess from their awful predecessor.


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 10:00 am 
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bronoun enthusiast
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Quote:
"A bulk of work which advanced a political philosophy that brings more growth and opportunity to focus on the American idea."

So much nothing packed into one sentence. Incredible.


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 10:31 am 
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thrill wrote:
Quote:
"A bulk of work which advanced a political philosophy that brings more growth and opportunity to focus on the American idea."

So much nothing packed into one sentence. Incredible.

That's what got him to the apex of American legislative power. Think Chauncey Gardener.


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 11:05 am 
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darjeeling sipping elite
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thrill wrote:
Quote:
"A bulk of work which advanced a political philosophy that brings more growth and opportunity to focus on the American idea."

So much nothing packed into one sentence. Incredible.



In contrast

TreyGowdy wrote:
I don’t have a lot to show for the last seven years


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PostPosted: April 12 18, 12:32 pm 
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Seeking a Zubaz seamstress

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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... -ryan.html

This piece nails it. Convenient young ideologe for the rich.


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PostPosted: May 2 18, 11:11 pm 
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Seeking a Zubaz seamstress

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Trump's chump warns that if democracy somehow manages to occur and the democrats take over the house, then it will gum up the works....whatever his and his master Trumps autocratic version of the works may be

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2018/05/02/paul-ryan-easily-wins-the-mulvaney-award-for-ultimate-hypocrisy/#3080331b38d3

I suppose Ryan wants his potential GOP heir, white supremacist anti-Semite Paul Nehlen to win to avoid all this gridlock.


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