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PostPosted: September 26 17, 8:38 pm 
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'Burb Boy
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He ended that post with "yeah, I said it."


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PostPosted: June 18 18, 9:35 am 
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PostPosted: July 2 18, 7:32 am 
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Seeking a Zubaz seamstress

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In southeast Missouri's Trump Country, a manufacturer wrestles with the negative side of Trump's tariffs

Quote:
About a quarter of the area’s residents live below the poverty level, a receptive audience for a campaign that warned its followers they were being neglected and vowed to fix it. The region’s congressman, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem, routinely tweets out fervent backing of Trump and his policies — including early support of Trump’s long-promised trade war with the rest of the world.

But instead of providing the economic lift Trump supporters here believed would come from it, that trade war has knocked one of the region’s biggest manufacturers — and the biggest American nail maker in the country — back on its heels.

The company is now begging for the administration to grant an exemption to the tariffs and warning that it could be out of business by Labor Day if it doesn’t.

The tariff policy “has put this company on the brink of extinction,” Mid Continent spokesman James Glassman told a CNN interviewer last week.

Smith is still tweeting out Trump’s praises, but he has gone notably silent on the hundreds of endangered local jobs that community residents and state, national and even international media outlets are writing about.

That's what this administration wants - make people beg. If/when they get an exemption, they will sing the benevolent king's praises again.


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PostPosted: July 5 18, 11:58 pm 
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The trade war with China started picking up tonight. The Wall Street Journal has plenty of stories like this with excerpts like this on the one hand:
Quote:
The U.S. Farm Belt helped deliver Donald Trump to the White House, drawn to his promises to revive rural America and deregulate industry. Now, the president’s global trade offensive is threatening the livelihoods of many farmers.

Mounting trade disputes, spurred by U.S. threats to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods from key trading partners, have cut U.S. agricultural exports and sent commodity prices tumbling. Many farmers, who depend on shipments overseas for one-fifth of the goods they produce, say they are anxious, especially because they are already expecting bumper harvests or grappling with a dairy glut.


And excerpts like this on the other:
Quote:
Still, many farmers say they support the Trump administration’s trade goals of modernizing Nafta, shrinking the U.S. trade deficit and combating what they see as unfair trade practices by China. They view the president’s approach as a negotiating tactic and hope it will bear fruit by fall, when farmers will harvest their crops. Some are prepared to sacrifice financially if the U.S. economy benefits in the long run.

“Ultimately I think the president is trying to do the best thing for the country as a whole. You can’t please all people all the time,” said Jon White, a Jones, Mich., hog farmer who sells 70,000 pigs each year and expects his farm to be unprofitable for the next three years due to low prices. Fears of reduced export business have exacerbated losses in a market already pressured by record pork production.


I think I understand what bureaucrats in Beijing, Brussels, etc. are trying to accomplish, but there are four obvious problems:

1. Trump doesn't give a [expletive] about midwestern farmers.
2. The midwestern farmers won't vote for a Democrat over Trump (or his GOP enablers in Congress) because some bureaucrat in Beijing stopped buying American soybeans.
3. The Trump Administration is run almost purely on the current news cycle, and not on any kind of long-term view of the benefits of trade.
4. Nobody in the Trump Administration can negotiate compromises on behalf of Trump. Part of that is trust, part of that is #3.

So the bureaucrats will wait. The market doesn't seem to care. I don't give investment advice, and I generally don't like to time the markets (having lived through 2000 and 2008, I don't rule out market timing). But, yes, I think the market is wrong. OTOH Trump will respond to a downturn in the Dow, which might be the dumbest gauge of this mess. That is to say the aggrieved white dude here is me.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 6:31 am 
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greenback44 wrote:
2. The midwestern farmers won't vote for a Democrat over Trump (or his GOP enablers in Congress) because some bureaucrat in Beijing stopped buying American soybeans.



There is a huge opportunity for Democrats here, honestly. There are gobs of other alternative policies they could be pushing that would be really attractive to many of these farmers. For one, Democrats need to get a spine and make cracking down on CAFOs a major issue. Many smaller farmers have been harmed by CAFOs and would be willing to listen. There are also alternate policies that won't result in overproduction (and low prices) in ag commodities, but still provide a stable income for farmers. Talking about these things would really put Republicans in a bind. They can't say jack [expletive] because they are getting massive money from the CAFOs and other huge businesses in the ag sector. Republicans would be put in the position of either having to agree with the Democrat, or defend these massive corporations that are killing family farms and polluting our drinking water. It's mind boggling that Democrats have been too chicken to do this.

This is only tangentially related to trade deals with China, but it is related. Better domestic ag policy would not make farmers so overly reliant on exports.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 12:42 pm 
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pioneer98 wrote:
greenback44 wrote:
2. The midwestern farmers won't vote for a Democrat over Trump (or his GOP enablers in Congress) because some bureaucrat in Beijing stopped buying American soybeans.



There is a huge opportunity for Democrats here, honestly. There are gobs of other alternative policies they could be pushing that would be really attractive to many of these farmers. For one, Democrats need to get a spine and make cracking down on CAFOs a major issue. Many smaller farmers have been harmed by CAFOs and would be willing to listen. There are also alternate policies that won't result in overproduction (and low prices) in ag commodities, but still provide a stable income for farmers. Talking about these things would really put Republicans in a bind. They can't say jack [expletive] because they are getting massive money from the CAFOs and other huge businesses in the ag sector. Republicans would be put in the position of either having to agree with the Democrat, or defend these massive corporations that are killing family farms and polluting our drinking water. It's mind boggling that Democrats have been too chicken to do this.

This is only tangentially related to trade deals with China, but it is related. Better domestic ag policy would not make farmers so overly reliant on exports.


All of the smart policy in the world won't make a difference because people don't vote for policies. They vote for people they feel some kind of connection with and the Democrats do not connect with rural voters. These farmers aren't stupid on agricultural policy or trade policy. They're willing to give Trump a pass because they have faith that he has some kind of ultimate strategy. And when the tariffs don't work, which they won't because this isn't the year 1955, Trump will just give them a scapegoat to blame -- immigrants & liberals -- and they'll eat it up because desperate, angry people are easy to manipulate.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 3:15 pm 
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The Last Word

Joined: June 21 06, 8:45 am
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G. Keenan wrote:
pioneer98 wrote:
greenback44 wrote:
2. The midwestern farmers won't vote for a Democrat over Trump (or his GOP enablers in Congress) because some bureaucrat in Beijing stopped buying American soybeans.



There is a huge opportunity for Democrats here, honestly. There are gobs of other alternative policies they could be pushing that would be really attractive to many of these farmers. For one, Democrats need to get a spine and make cracking down on CAFOs a major issue. Many smaller farmers have been harmed by CAFOs and would be willing to listen. There are also alternate policies that won't result in overproduction (and low prices) in ag commodities, but still provide a stable income for farmers. Talking about these things would really put Republicans in a bind. They can't say jack [expletive] because they are getting massive money from the CAFOs and other huge businesses in the ag sector. Republicans would be put in the position of either having to agree with the Democrat, or defend these massive corporations that are killing family farms and polluting our drinking water. It's mind boggling that Democrats have been too chicken to do this.

This is only tangentially related to trade deals with China, but it is related. Better domestic ag policy would not make farmers so overly reliant on exports.


All of the smart policy in the world won't make a difference because people don't vote for policies. They vote for people they feel some kind of connection with and the Democrats do not connect with rural voters. These farmers aren't stupid on agricultural policy or trade policy. They're willing to give Trump a pass because they have faith that he has some kind of ultimate strategy. And when the tariffs don't work, which they won't because this isn't the year 1955, Trump will just give them a scapegoat to blame -- immigrants & liberals -- and they'll eat it up because desperate, angry people are easy to manipulate.



I'm assuming he'll bump subsidies for farmers to cover his ass, too.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 3:19 pm 
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pioneer98 wrote:
Better domestic ag policy would not make farmers so overly reliant on exports.


What are your ideas, love to hear them.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 3:56 pm 
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Has an anecdote about a townie he overheard.
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Farmers and for that matter other rural white men will never vote democrat again because the democrats will never run a straight white male again. I know that's racists and sexists and whatever but it's true. As long as the democrats are determined to run a woman or a black man, and probably a black woman this time around they aren't getting those votes.

This is another case where the democrats have a choice. They can be right or they can win. They are going to chose to lose every time because they haven't learned yet that winning at all costs is the only thing that matters.


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PostPosted: July 6 18, 6:17 pm 
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The Last Word

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Good post, IMA. Unfortunate, but true.


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