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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 12:42 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
I'm not sure why people keep crediting this to Putin. Trump is erratic and likes to avoid real conflict, which is a benefit in this case.

Yep. Same thing he did with Venezuela.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 1:17 pm 
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thrill wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
I'm not sure why people keep crediting this to Putin. Trump is erratic and likes to avoid real conflict, which is a benefit in this case.

Yep. Same thing he did with Venezuela.


I'm glad he's not bombing these countries, truly. To possible kill upwards of 150 Iranians in retaliation for a drone would have been wrong.

These dumb ass blowhard threats and bombast need to stop though. They won't, but they should.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 2:24 pm 
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Putin has been pretty outspoken about not wanting the US to intervene in either Venezuela or Iran. I'm not saying Putin was the decisive reason as to why we gave up on Venezuela or decided not to attack Iran...but it could be one factor.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 2:34 pm 
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I wonder what next weeks "we have to bomb Iran" event will be?


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 2:38 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
I'm not sure why people keep crediting this to Putin.

Have not seen this. Kind of weird. What is the content of the Putin controls Trump line at this point? Are we supposed to conclude that if it weren't for Trump's secret Putin ties, he'd do the right thing and attack Iran? Or is it that if Trump makes a good decision, it cannot be attributable to him, so as a backup it will be attributed to Putin?


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 4:46 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
Trump... likes to avoid real conflict...

I haven't seen this. The man could resolve the lawyer glut single-handed with all of the litigation he generates. He certainly hasn't shied away from stirring up stuff that necessarily generates outrage.

Trump has been consistent about not wanting to bomb civilians or to pursue endless wars in the Middle East. I think "real conflict" extends beyond that definition, but if that's what you mean, then I certainly agree.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 8:41 pm 
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greenback44 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
Trump... likes to avoid real conflict...

I haven't seen this. The man could resolve the lawyer glut single-handed with all of the litigation he generates. He certainly hasn't shied away from stirring up stuff that necessarily generates outrage.

Trump has been consistent about not wanting to bomb civilians or to pursue endless wars in the Middle East. I think "real conflict" extends beyond that definition, but if that's what you mean, then I certainly agree.


Twitter fights and lawsuits don’t involve any kind of dirty work on his end. He apparently doesn’t fire people in person, except on TV. He’s nice to people in person and then trashes them on Twitter or in speeches. A war that might cost lives is too much of a gamble I think, and it falls squarely on him. He’s got a certain amount of his rep and corners of the media he’d stand to lose if it went badly. He’s increased drone strikes but that also costs us nothing.

It’s just much easier to keep talking tough and spin whatever happens in a way that suits him. I’ve seen several prominent conservatives already praising him for calling off his own attack.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 10:25 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
Twitter fights and lawsuits don’t involve any kind of dirty work on his end.

There were a bunch of stories out today about the concentration camps, that little kids are rolling around in their own feces with their parents locked away somewhere else. That's about as dirty as it gets. I don't dispute that Trump is likely a physical coward, but it's not like Trump is going to be in a foxhole outside Tehran. That's been the criticism of modern leaders, since Vietnam at least, that warfare has been sanitized. That kind of physical and emotional distance doesn't seem to serve as an effective buffer for Trump as much as it does for other recent politicians, which must drive Bolton nuts.

Or maybe Putin told him not to do it. I don't know, this whole episode has been nuts.

Quote:
He’s got a certain amount of his rep and corners of the media he’d stand to lose if it went badly.

Those corners of the media are in the bag for him, as long as he does his "be mean to brown people" act, and he knows it. The same politicians supporting him now will happily support him tomorrow if Bolton hijacks some missiles, and starts firing them randomly towards brown people, any brown people.Somebody like Alex Jones or Laura Ingraham may have a little attention-seeking freakout, but Trump knows those people don't have anywhere else to go.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 21 19, 10:57 pm 
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greenback44 wrote:
Quote:
He’s got a certain amount of his rep and corners of the media he’d stand to lose if it went badly.

Those corners of the media are in the bag for him, as long as he does his "be mean to brown people" act, and he knows it. The same politicians supporting him now will happily support him tomorrow if Bolton hijacks some missiles, and starts firing them randomly towards brown people, any brown people.Somebody like Alex Jones or Laura Ingraham may have a little attention-seeking freakout, but Trump knows those people don't have anywhere else to go.

I think Trump’s reference point is how the Iraq War went for GWB by the end when it became unpopular. Not a move I think he’d like either as it would tend to shift attention to actual events and away from his personal antics that he enjoys being appreciated for so much. And unlike GWB, I doubt Trump can generate much partisan fracturing national unity type support by starting a real war. Lot of potential downside and limited upside, though yes, obviously Sean Hannity is going to do whatever Trump tells him to do.


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 Post subject: Re: Iran
PostPosted: June 22 19, 7:20 am 
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greenback44 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
Twitter fights and lawsuits don’t involve any kind of dirty work on his end.

There were a bunch of stories out today about the concentration camps, that little kids are rolling around in their own feces with their parents locked away somewhere else. That's about as dirty as it gets. I don't dispute that Trump is likely a physical coward, but it's not like Trump is going to be in a foxhole outside Tehran. That's been the criticism of modern leaders, since Vietnam at least, that warfare has been sanitized. That kind of physical and emotional distance doesn't seem to serve as an effective buffer for Trump as much as it does for other recent politicians, which must drive Bolton nuts.

Or maybe Putin told him not to do it. I don't know, this whole episode has been nuts.

Quote:
He’s got a certain amount of his rep and corners of the media he’d stand to lose if it went badly.

Those corners of the media are in the bag for him, as long as he does his "be mean to brown people" act, and he knows it. The same politicians supporting him now will happily support him tomorrow if Bolton hijacks some missiles, and starts firing them randomly towards brown people, any brown people.Somebody like Alex Jones or Laura Ingraham may have a little attention-seeking freakout, but Trump knows those people don't have anywhere else to go.


I think he’s accountable for a war in a way he’s not accountable or can deflect from like other things he does. The media would focus on it in ways they haven’t on any one of his other issues. The border is close but he’s still able to pin that on Democrats, the media, other countries, etc.

I think be mean to brown people has limits, especially when white kids start dying for it. Fox would generally go along but Tucker Carlson might not, along with Jones and bunch of the alt-rightish You Tubers who have huge followings. I don’t know if that translates to real voting losses or if Trump knows the extent of it himself, but I’d guess he has an idea that it might hurt him.

I could be all wrong, and maybe he’d even pick up support. Just seems like the upside of the status quo is too obvious at the moment. There’s also probably a point at which he’ll worry Iran is making him look foolish or a staffer will convince him of it, so still plenty to worry about.


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