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 Post subject: Re: The Tariff Thread
PostPosted: December 19 18, 6:35 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Tariff Thread
PostPosted: December 19 18, 8:49 pm 
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pioneer98 wrote:

This and Syria on the same day. At this rate, the GOP will be begging Pelosi for articles of impeachment. The Democrats might be able to get health care for all or maybe two supreme court justices if they play their cards right!


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 Post subject: Re: The Tariff Thread
PostPosted: December 20 18, 12:25 pm 
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thrill wrote:
Diddy wrote:

Let’s be real here. Years of bad decisions is what put farmers in the position they are in. The trump tariffs hurt really bad but if your going bankrupt because of them you were well on your way without them.

You know farming way, waaaaaaaaay more than I do, but it occurs to me that the shrinking middle class created by wealth distribution disparity already has a very difficult time building savings regardless of what industry they are in. Tie in the massive liabilities that farmers carry inherent to the field (paying for equipment, seed, etc with no guarantee of a return 9 months later) and it seems that family farms would be particularly susceptible to unexpected setbacks and loss of income inherent to Trump's trade policy. If you can't save enough money to float through short to medium term setbacks and loss of income, you're not going to be able to survive the whims of a trade war.

Am I way off?



I've been wanting to respond to this for a week now but I just can't find the right words.

You and Diddy are both correct. There are certainly farmers who have spent like the good times would never end and quite frankly the first 16 or 17 years of this century it seemed like they wouldn't. Farming was very good for a while. Now the good times are over and farmers who put their money in new equipment every couple years, new storage (often financed through local grain buyers or seed companies in complex deals I can explain more if anyone is interested), and new land. Those farmers are getting hurt bad right now with low grain prices and rising interest rates. We are going to lose some big farms here in the coming years, maybe this year, and it's going to take banks with them. That's how much money we are talking about.

However Thrill you are correct as well. There are a lot of farmers who have tried to save for the rainy day that was coming. A lot of us (myself included) invested in efficiency and technology to improve the bottom line. At the end of the day though when you are a farmer your losses get big fast. Take a year with poor weather, poor commodity prices, and then the govt screwing things up with a trade war and it hurts bad. To be perfectly blunt, we can do this two more years before we either have to get some funding to keep going or we fold it up. If that's our story, I believe it's probably the story with a huge number of farmers.

The problem is no matter who goes out of business it's going to be the giant mega farmers snatching up the land. Someone like Dowson Farm's who already farm 100,000 acres.


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 Post subject: Re: The Tariff Thread
PostPosted: December 20 18, 1:45 pm 
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IMADreamer wrote:
thrill wrote:
Diddy wrote:

Let’s be real here. Years of bad decisions is what put farmers in the position they are in. The trump tariffs hurt really bad but if your going bankrupt because of them you were well on your way without them.

You know farming way, waaaaaaaaay more than I do, but it occurs to me that the shrinking middle class created by wealth distribution disparity already has a very difficult time building savings regardless of what industry they are in. Tie in the massive liabilities that farmers carry inherent to the field (paying for equipment, seed, etc with no guarantee of a return 9 months later) and it seems that family farms would be particularly susceptible to unexpected setbacks and loss of income inherent to Trump's trade policy. If you can't save enough money to float through short to medium term setbacks and loss of income, you're not going to be able to survive the whims of a trade war.

Am I way off?



I've been wanting to respond to this for a week now but I just can't find the right words.

You and Diddy are both correct. There are certainly farmers who have spent like the good times would never end and quite frankly the first 16 or 17 years of this century it seemed like they wouldn't. Farming was very good for a while. Now the good times are over and farmers who put their money in new equipment every couple years, new storage (often financed through local grain buyers or seed companies in complex deals I can explain more if anyone is interested), and new land. Those farmers are getting hurt bad right now with low grain prices and rising interest rates. We are going to lose some big farms here in the coming years, maybe this year, and it's going to take banks with them. That's how much money we are talking about.

However Thrill you are correct as well. There are a lot of farmers who have tried to save for the rainy day that was coming. A lot of us (myself included) invested in efficiency and technology to improve the bottom line. At the end of the day though when you are a farmer your losses get big fast. Take a year with poor weather, poor commodity prices, and then the govt screwing things up with a trade war and it hurts bad. To be perfectly blunt, we can do this two more years before we either have to get some funding to keep going or we fold it up. If that's our story, I believe it's probably the story with a huge number of farmers.

The problem is no matter who goes out of business it's going to be the giant mega farmers snatching up the land. Someone like Dowson Farm's who already farm 100,000 acres.


I hadn’t seen Thrills post. I was referring more to people who immediately blame the tariffs. They have definitely had an effect, I had one note I wasn’t able to make the payment and had to do an extension. Wouldn’t have been an issue making the payment at pretariff prices. I just feel like it’s an easy excuse to blame the tariffs when that was the final straw not the major factor.

If it continues for 2,3,4,5 years they will run a lot of farmers and bankers out of business. Taking a loss on very many acres adds up fast. At some point banks will have to call notes instead of extending them.


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 Post subject: Re: The Tariff Thread
PostPosted: January 6 19, 11:37 am 
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/busi ... e-war.html


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