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 Post subject: Trump and Partisanship
PostPosted: July 25 19, 6:37 am 
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From the "Calculating or Impulsive" thread....

Arthur Dent wrote:
jagtrader wrote:
Look, he took populist rhetoric cloaked in racism to win a lower percentage of the vote than Romney received. Then he governed for rich people. His approval never much changed during any of it.

Absolutely. I’m referring mostly to his instinct with Republican primary voters. His success in the general is pretty bad and owes to the fact the US political institutions are quite undemocratic rather than any skill. He’s rather unpopular but can win anyway on a minority and farcical election rules.


And partisanship, apparently. Great timing, 538 this morning brings us: Is Trump's Use of White Identity Politics Strategic?

Quote:
Another explanation for Trump’s victory is that it was largely because of factors that had little to do with his campaign approach. For instance, some election models that ignored the two candidates and instead focused on factors like the economy and Obama’s approval rating predicted that Republicans would win. Whatever the merits of Trump (and Clinton’s strategies), the overwhelming majority of 2016 voters backed the same party as they did in 2012. By far the most important factor in Trump’s victory in 2016 was that he was the GOP nominee for president and millions of Republican-leaning voters likely backed him simply because they are Republicans.

“A more appropriate narrative for 2016 might be that despite Trump’s racism, partisanship, political ideology and partisan issues dominated vote choice,” Enns wrote in the paper describing his findings.

A perfectly plausible theory of the 2016 election would go something like this: Trump’s racial rhetoric turned off some voters, brought in some new ones, and was basically an electoral wash. He won because most American elections are close because of partisanship and he also had a few specific advantages. Clinton was running for a third term for her party, and some voters might have wanted a change; some Americans who hated both candidates were willing to take a chance on the person who wasn’t already part of the political establishment (or a woman); and on the eve of the election, the FBI announced it was examining what it described as newly discovered evidence in an investigation of whether Clinton had committed a crime.

All of that is to say that it’s hard to rule out the possibility that Trump won the general election largely because of factors outside of how he talked about race and identity.


They do stipulate that the racist stuff worked in the primary. It was responsible for getting him a big lead to start, and people for whom Immigration was their #1 issue (even in places like Mass and Conn if you need a bigger reason to hate Boston sports fans) went hard for Trump in the GOP primary.

So. If he won with the racism, but the racism wasn't a big factor in the general election, and it's just a wash, we might argue that the racism, even if it is a choice, is a bad one, and that partisanship is the biggest problem with How We Got Trump, per this 538 piece based on a fairly well-researched book on the topic. Enough people will go punch the name next to (R) because (R) is their party.

My F-I-L is this way. Said he wouldn't vote Trump in the primary, voted Kasich, said he wouldn't vote Trump in the general, voted Trump, now says he'll vote Biden in the general, but if he makes it another 16 months (he's 93 and in poor healthy) I don't know what he will do.

What does a Trump presidency do to partisanship, long-term? Are there people like my F-I-L who have punched (R) when they have voted, who will stop? These could be 30 year olds or 100 year olds. Does Russia, the racism, the misogyny, the xenophobia, the people starving in border camps, the criminality, the party members willing to let all of the above slide in order to keep office, all lead to an erosion in (R) partisanship, so that a % of those voters (even just, say, 4-5%) who always punch (R) no longer do? Does that explain part of the 2018 Midterm and is that part of a shift away from the GOP over the extremism they've taken on, or is that just normal ebb and flow?


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PostPosted: July 25 19, 8:03 am 
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The president demonstrates textbook racism towards members of Congress.

And then my Congessperson (good Catholic -Ann Wager-owned by F&I industry) gives the same "the problem is both sides" defense of it, that the president gave when a Neo Nazi rammed a car into a group of humans ......

....And Trump could lose popular vote again by like 15 million (maybe more!) this time and still be elected. (Midterm GOPers picked up Senate seats with 13 Million less votes).

Then we are like Russia, where nobody knows anything different about democracy, real freedom, or the premise of equality.

I want to think kumbaya- the hope is in the children and overwhelming changing demographics...they don't care about race or sexuality-just about every extended family except the most insular IS or WILL BE racially mixed, have openly gay people in their circle.

...but As democracy degrades away, people get protective of what they got. We are easily divided and manipulatdd as we get less equal.
Glaring example- poor southern whites in Civil War.

And social media fact vs fiction is an evil factor.

Fooked.


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PostPosted: July 25 19, 8:21 am 
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I love a Freed rant of several isolated sentences that all come into one big umbrella of thought. But. Do you think that hyper-partisanship on the part of the GOP, including but not limited to:
--allowing hate speech in literally every possible form to the point of normalizing nazis
--allowing lies in literally every possible form to the point where it's laughable and expected
--whining about Hillary [expletive] Clinton when Mueller tells them our election was attacked and she was demonstrably the victim
...means that in the end, a lot of like 27-38 year old registered Republicans who go punch (R) every time because that's their party, starts to go ".....hmmmmmmm, maybe that's not my party"?

It only takes literally 1% of the GOP voters in MI, WI, PA to do that to turn the electoral map. Go to 270 To Win and change the brown states. Turn FL and AZ red, give them to the GOP. Then turn MI, WI, PA blue. The Dems win 278-259. The difference between Hillary and Trump was less than 1% of the vote in MI, WI, PA.

Beyond that, how many young professional sub- and urban Texans who have tech or finance jobs, or whose family raised them to punch (R) hit that point where they're like "y'know, I don't think I'm down with this...."?

I think if the GOP practices hyper-partisan politics, but partisan politics doesn't allow for party members who can change their minds when they're turned off by the hyper-partisan nature of their party, that this could be a big turning point thing not just for 2020 but for the future. I think it's very possible that in strengthening/deepening the Base (which would be Right Wing on the what's your label grid) they are turning off old school GOP and right of center voters who could easily vote for Biden, Harris, Booker, Pete, and mayyyyyyyybe Warren since she's still got that "...but I believe in capitalism" streak. These are also voters who might not vote R going forward after 2020, or raise kids to punch R automatically.


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PostPosted: July 25 19, 8:47 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
I love a Freed rant of several isolated sentences that all come into one big umbrella of thought.


I will have to get back to you on the topic. had to deposit some thoughts here, as I look out my Portlandia hotel room window while drinking a Torrefazione coffee and looking forward to the local sights and then heading to the ocean.....but those dern homeless people messing up my view.


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PostPosted: July 25 19, 9:58 am 
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Per Gallup:
31% of Americans identify as Democrat
24% of Americans identify as Republican
42% of Americans identify as Independent

46% are Democrats or Democrat Leaners
39% are Republicans or Republican Leaners
(this is after independents were asked if they lean)

End of the day, we're a country of more Democrats that has a biased electoral system that gives too much power to white southerners that helps cover the gap to the GOP's favor in POTUS elections--they've won only one popular vote after 1988 but have won three elections in that span.

The independents are basically split: it's a 7-point gap between Dem and GOP with and without their lean figured in. But the independents can go with the tide, and are generally apt to vote for change. What I wonder is if a really small amount, just like 1-2% of those independents who lean GOP can become self-identifying Democrats or independents who lean Dem, based on 8 years of Bush and war followed by four years of Trump's shameless descent into hell. I legitimately think that is possible. If the split just barely shifts to...

32% of Americans identify as Democrat
24% of Americans identify as Republican
41% of Americans identify as Independent

48% are Democrats or Democrat Leaners
37% are Republicans or Republican Leaners
(this is after independents were asked if they lean)

...then at that point it becomes, in coordination with the browning of the country, especially in places like Texas and Arizona, virtually impossible for the GOP to win a national election without a Southern Strategy-like shift of national platform.


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PostPosted: July 25 19, 10:05 am 
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I also wonder this. Independent voters often decide elections. They also often vote for change. Usually after 8 years of one party they shift us to the other. Then the midterm goes against the POTUS. Rinse and repeat. But there has been like 20 years worth of awful stuff crammed into three years of a Trump administration already, so I'd guess it's not a bad assumption that independent voters would have some Incumbent Fatigue already and speed their tendencies toward change by one election cycle to get Trump out, see some change, see us move on with him in the rearview mirror.


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