GatewayRedbirds.com

A Message Board Dedicated to Discussing St. Louis Cardinals Baseball!
It is currently December 6 19, 7:13 am

All times are UTC - 6 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1515 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115 ... 152  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 14 19, 12:06 pm 
Offline
Replies Authoritatively
User avatar

Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
Posts: 8111
Location: Chicago, IL
Let’s say a swing state has 400K Swing Voters—not likely voters or registered voters, but voter voters. They will vote. They are moderate, independent, tend to go with an incumbent POTUS but also, along with the nation, with the candidate of change after 8 years of incumbency.

Let’s say in an incumbent year they vote in line with statewide approval rating, provided candidates are neutral otherwise. The challenger is politically in opposition to the incumbent on the issues that make the incumbent popular or un-, but there’s nothing politically polarizing in the challenger that would turn people back to or away from voting for the incumbent even though he’s un- or popular—the idea of fascism on one side or socialism on the other is not held by the challenger, but is by the incumbent.

POTUS has a 40% approve rating in a given state. So the raw votes are:
160K - incumbent
240K - challenger

That 80K gap, alone, in a state like WI, MI, PA can be the difference. The challenging party need not recruit new voters, just by flipping the middle of the road voters the election can turn.

Just for ease, let’s call the incumbent “Drumpf” and the challenger above “Blue Collar Joe.” Now let’s throw in two different scenarios.

Scenario 2: replace Blue Collar Joe with Polarized Pete. Polarized Pete is the dimetric opposite to the extreme of the incumbent and will do two things that Blue Collar Joe will not do:
1. Polarized Pete will reduce the gap in voter-voters above: their dissatisfaction with the incumbent will not matter as much as uncertainty brought by some of the things the voter is hearing about Polarized Pete.
2. Polarized Pete will get some voters who have not previously voted to register and vote for Polarized Pete.

Scenario 3: Ninety Percent Nancy. Nancy is 90% of the way to the polar extreme that Pete holds, however the 10% on which she does not agree with him on is fundamental to the country’s charter and beliefs.
1. Ninety Nancy will reduce the gap in voter-voters above: their dissatisfaction with the incumbent will not matter as much as uncertainty brought by some of the things the voter is hearing about Ninety Nancy.
2. Ninety Nancy will get some voters who have not previously voted to register and vote for Ninety Nancy.

In a scenario in which Drumpf is highly polarizing and highly unpopular and the single most important thing to accomplish in the name of the future of the actual planet in this election is that Drumpf loses(1), which is the best route to take? If we step away from the safe easy Blue Collar Joe route, how much confidence do we have the campaign against Polarized Pete doesn’t hurt more than it helps. Same question for Ninety Nancy.

If we’re sure—like, super certain—that Drumpf’s attacks on Polarized Pete and those supported by hundreds of millions in campaign contributions would not hurt Pete enough to cost him the election in the three states where it actually matters and education levels are low and voters can be easily swayed, then let’s take Pete. If we think that the inflection point means Pete can’t win, but Nancy can and Nancy would give us almost all the change we want, then Nancy is our choice.

(1) False equivalency arguments about how Blue Collar Joe is as bad as Drumpf need not apply.


Last edited by 33anda3rd on August 14 19, 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 14 19, 12:12 pm 
Offline
Replies Authoritatively
User avatar

Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
Posts: 8111
Location: Chicago, IL
Basically above, the margin of error for Nancy is > 10% better than it is for Pete. Nancy is 10% less polarized but it’s also the big polarizing stuff she’s softer on and appeals more to the middle of the road voter on.

So for every 1 new voter that Pete brings in, Nancy needs bring in 0.75 or so because she’s losing fewer to fears of her own political polarity.

This is something that IMO we need to take a hard look at, put our biases aside and get behind Eliz—erm, Nancy in this hypothetical election.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 7:40 am 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: July 15 08, 8:24 pm
Posts: 20328
Location: Low A Minors
Image
https://www.people-press.org/2019/08/16 ... ates_0-06/

This graph blows my mind.
- Bernie’s supporters are more likely to be women than Warren’s or Harris’ supporters.
-Percent of their supporters that are white:
Warren = 71%
Kamala = 59%
Biden = 56%
Bernie = 49%
So, Bernie’s supporters are more likely to be minorities than Kamala Harris' or Biden's supporters are.

What this doesn’t show is the number of supporters overall. So for example, Biden may have a larger number of minorities supporting him right now, since he has more supporters overall. But as a percentage their supporters, Bernie is higher. This is a pretty surprising graph. Are some people moving past “identity politics”?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 7:41 am 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: July 15 08, 8:24 pm
Posts: 20328
Location: Low A Minors
Also, only 5% of Biden's supporters are under 30.

5%!!!

That is comically low.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 8:23 am 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: April 18 06, 9:40 pm
Posts: 24689
I wonder if Bernie ends up outperforming his polling. Might happen if younger people turn out in big numbers and some of the non-traditional forums he's using (Rogan, Cardi B, showing up at or sending followers to labor protests) end up activating a lot of people who haven't voted before.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 8:42 am 
Offline
Replies Authoritatively
User avatar

Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
Posts: 8111
Location: Chicago, IL
Keep in mind black voters were behind Clinton early in the 2008 primary. Black Americans who vote tend to be Democrats, moderates, and show a preference for "electable." It's still very early in the cycle. They came around to Obama after early wins in states like Iowa--where no one expected him to win--and SC. From the Times:

Quote:
The myriad priorities of black voters in South Carolina and across the nation suggests that, Mr. Biden’s current advantage notwithstanding, the pursuit of African-American support in 2020 will be far more competitive than in 2016 and 2008. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama won more than 80 percent of black votes in the South Carolina primary, and were propelled to the nomination in large part because African-Americans in subsequent states mirrored their counterparts here.


For all voters other than the very very very small % who are Very Online and are constantly refreshing their Twitter and checking 538 or RCP every 20 minutes for poll updates, or Iowa where they are all omnipresent, these candidates are still largely unknown. Biden and Sanders are household names, the rest are still people the voters are getting to know. On this date in 2007 it was Clinton 40% - Obama 20% - Edwards 12% - Richardson 4%. Obama didn't lead Clinton until Valentine's Day 2008, almost six months to the day later. He shot up in early January, eclipsed her six weeks later and never looked back. There was a debate in January, a big national one with only four people on the stage, the moderator famously asked Clinton why she was so unlikable. Edwards went on about change and Obama was like "yeah, you're an insider, spare me the change rhetoric" and the race was all but over. Lots can happen between now and the first vote in Iowa, let alone now and the end of the primary.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 2:57 pm 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: July 15 08, 8:24 pm
Posts: 20328
Location: Low A Minors
ghostrunner wrote:
I wonder if Bernie ends up outperforming his polling. Might happen if younger people turn out in big numbers and some of the non-traditional forums he's using (Rogan, Cardi B, showing up at or sending followers to labor protests) end up activating a lot of people who haven't voted before.


I think he will overperform but I don't know by how much. It just feels like he doesn't have a real high ceiling but maybe I am wrong. I feel like if he had a higher ceiling, I'd expect him to be doing better than he is already, but maybe it is still too early to tell much.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 19 19, 3:07 pm 
Offline
Replies Authoritatively
User avatar

Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
Posts: 8111
Location: Chicago, IL
pioneer98 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
I wonder if Bernie ends up outperforming his polling. Might happen if younger people turn out in big numbers and some of the non-traditional forums he's using (Rogan, Cardi B, showing up at or sending followers to labor protests) end up activating a lot of people who haven't voted before.


I think he will overperform but I don't know by how much. It just feels like he doesn't have a real high ceiling but maybe I am wrong. I feel like if he had a higher ceiling, I'd expect him to be doing better than he is already, but maybe it is still too early to tell much.


Generally speaking the candidates who outperform early polling the most are those who are relatively unknown at this point in the cycle. He’s the 2nd choice on six ballots in the latest GRB/Gallup/CNN first/second chance poll: 5 runner-ups to Warren, 1 to Biden, both first choice candidates are not ones dropping out. I’d expect he picks up a few points here and there—Yang and Gabbard voters after they drop out, but given how well his brand is known I’d say the only thing that’s going to shoot him from 14% nationally to even the mid-20s would be Warren dropping dead or Biden dropping dead and he picks up the “I only vote for old gray haired white guys” Democrats.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 26 19, 4:22 pm 
Offline
There's someone in my head but it's not me
User avatar

Joined: April 18 06, 5:08 pm
Posts: 44339
Location: Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am.

This is one of the milder tweets from Joe’s past. As bad or worse than the Orange dude.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: August 29 19, 8:35 am 
Offline
Hall Of Famer
User avatar

Joined: July 15 08, 8:24 pm
Posts: 20328
Location: Low A Minors
This is the poll that 538 gives an A+

Image


Mayor Pete has really fallen. Booker, my dark horse pick since the beginning, is even with Mayor Pete now. This is a national poll so it doesn't mean a ton. But still interesting. It looks like a 3 person race.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1515 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115 ... 152  Next

All times are UTC - 6 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group