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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 5 19, 9:27 pm 
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Mary1966 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This is interesting. If I'm reading this right the majority of Klobuchar voters won't stick with the Democrats if she loses. Strangely large percentage of Beto's as well.

Yang voters especially don't like Bernie, which surprises me a bit. Doesn't surprise that they'd vote for Trump, but they're mostly fine with the other Democrats.

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That’s strange. This is not a scientific poll, but I find most Klobuchar supporters that I have talked who have chosen to switch have gone over to Warren.


I'm pretty sure this random graph is meaningless. I've seen it for 2 or 3 pages now and have yet to be convinced it's not just dumb noise.

I mean, isn't that graph telling us that about 5% of Biden supporters would chose Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup against . . . Biden? Are Pete and Bernie the same shade of blue, or am I color blind?


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 6 19, 6:38 am 
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G. Keenan wrote:
Mary1966 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This is interesting. If I'm reading this right the majority of Klobuchar voters won't stick with the Democrats if she loses. Strangely large percentage of Beto's as well.

Yang voters especially don't like Bernie, which surprises me a bit. Doesn't surprise that they'd vote for Trump, but they're mostly fine with the other Democrats.

Image


That’s strange. This is not a scientific poll, but I find most Klobuchar supporters that I have talked who have chosen to switch have gone over to Warren.


I'm pretty sure this random graph is meaningless. I've seen it for 2 or 3 pages now and have yet to be convinced it's not just dumb noise.

I mean, isn't that graph telling us that about 5% of Biden supporters would chose Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup against . . . Biden? Are Pete and Bernie the same shade of blue, or am I color blind?


Yeah, same shade of blue. The only way to discern the two is the sequence in which the colors appears for each candidate.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 6 19, 7:50 am 
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G. Keenan wrote:
Mary1966 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This is interesting. If I'm reading this right the majority of Klobuchar voters won't stick with the Democrats if she loses. Strangely large percentage of Beto's as well.

Yang voters especially don't like Bernie, which surprises me a bit. Doesn't surprise that they'd vote for Trump, but they're mostly fine with the other Democrats.

Image


That’s strange. This is not a scientific poll, but I find most Klobuchar supporters that I have talked who have chosen to switch have gone over to Warren.


I'm pretty sure this random graph is meaningless. I've seen it for 2 or 3 pages now and have yet to be convinced it's not just dumb noise.

I mean, isn't that graph telling us that about 5% of Biden supporters would chose Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup against . . . Biden? Are Pete and Bernie the same shade of blue, or am I color blind?


I don't think that's too weird. It's just Democrats who plan to vote for Trump, but will still vote in the Democratic Primary. Looked at the poll, and it's 11 of Biden's 195 primary voters. People are weird.

Looked at Klobuchar's voters and she's got a total of 5 primary voters in this poll, so those percentages are indeed highly skewed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 6 19, 8:44 am 
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ghostrunner wrote:
G. Keenan wrote:
Mary1966 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This is interesting. If I'm reading this right the majority of Klobuchar voters won't stick with the Democrats if she loses. Strangely large percentage of Beto's as well.

Yang voters especially don't like Bernie, which surprises me a bit. Doesn't surprise that they'd vote for Trump, but they're mostly fine with the other Democrats.

Image


That’s strange. This is not a scientific poll, but I find most Klobuchar supporters that I have talked who have chosen to switch have gone over to Warren.


I'm pretty sure this random graph is meaningless. I've seen it for 2 or 3 pages now and have yet to be convinced it's not just dumb noise.

I mean, isn't that graph telling us that about 5% of Biden supporters would chose Trump over Biden in a head-to-head matchup against . . . Biden? Are Pete and Bernie the same shade of blue, or am I color blind?


I don't think that's too weird. It's just Democrats who plan to vote for Trump, but will still vote in the Democratic Primary. Looked at the poll, and it's 11 of Biden's 195 primary voters. People are weird.

Looked at Klobuchar's voters and she's got a total of 5 primary voters in this poll, so those percentages are indeed highly skewed.


I wonder about the kind of person who plans to vote for Trump, but still takes the time to vote in the Democratic primary anyway. What is their rationale? To try and nominate their second favorite choice in case Trump loses the general?


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 6 19, 8:50 am 
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G. Keenan wrote:

I wonder about the kind of person who plans to vote for Trump, but still takes the time to vote in the Democratic primary anyway. What is their rationale? To try and nominate their second favorite choice in case Trump loses the general?


Well, you'd have a decent chunk of people who would plan to vote in the Democratic primary for down-ballot elections (Senate, Congress, state offices, local elections). I voted in this year's Republican primary locally because I wanted to ensure a couple morons (one of them my neighbor) didn't win mayoral and city council elections (they would be unopposed in the general this fall).

That said, you wouldn't really consider them "supporters" of any of the Democratic presidential candidates. Unless they just made them choose someone.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 8 19, 5:45 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 8 19, 6:46 pm 
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Pretty much every state poll except South Carolina has Biden in a worse position than the national polls do. Which makes me wonder if people view national polls more as a question of who will or is likely to win, even if that’s not what they’re asked.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 8 19, 7:14 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
Pretty much every state poll except South Carolina has Biden in a worse position than the national polls do. Which makes me wonder if people view national polls more as a question of who will or is likely to win, even if that’s not what they’re asked.

I'd guess it's more a form of name recognition, and that, for example, Iowa and New Hampshire have higher name recognition for Sanders and Warren, because the candidates have started making more noises in those states.

This drawn-out series of primary elections is a really weird way of determining presidential candidates.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 9 19, 8:05 am 
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greenback44 wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
Pretty much every state poll except South Carolina has Biden in a worse position than the national polls do. Which makes me wonder if people view national polls more as a question of who will or is likely to win, even if that’s not what they’re asked.

I'd guess it's more a form of name recognition, and that, for example, Iowa and New Hampshire have higher name recognition for Sanders and Warren, because the candidates have started making more noises in those states.


It's 80% about fame at this point. On this day in 2007 Clinton was ahead of Obama by 17 points and McCain was in fourth place at 10%, polling way behind America's Mayor Rudy Giuliani. At this point in 2011 Romney was 11 points behind Rick Perry. At this point in 2015 it was Clinton 47-Sanders 23. It's very early.

IMO the three things to do when watching polls right now are:
1. Don't pay too much attention to one poll. Don't let one poll freak you out or get you excited. In the last 2 months there have been 8 polls conducted in Iowa. This is one of 4 that has Biden leading in that state. One has Buttigieg winning. One has Biden and Warren tying. Two have Warren winning. None have Sanders winning and half of them have him at 12% or less so it's unlikely he's in the mid-20s. It shouldn't be dismissed, however, we should...

2. Keep an eye on rolling averages and consider trends. RCP is a great place for this. Warren's poll average in NH is third. It's really tight among the top three, and with margin of error you could call any of the the three the favorite right now, but it's not clear that Warren has moved into the pole position in NH. If Biden is worse in these states than he is nationally, it is not because of these polls. On average he's at 28.5 in IA and 27 in NV, which is just a bit under the 29 he's at nationally, within margin of error comfortably. When we look at these moving averages we can...

3. Find meaningful changes and eliminate noise. Harris's debate bump and subsequent fall means she's not yet sticky with voters. Ditto Beto, whose failed attempt to Giuliani the El Paso shooting (he's lower than he was a couple months ago) is a good indicator that a Senate run should be his priority. The Big Three in this race have some defining half-year long trends which I think are the most important thing in polling data now. Biden was more popular as a hypothetical candidate yet to announce than he is now, on TV and the web and the campaign trail daily. Sanders is stalled. Warren's is the only campaign of the top 6-7 candidates that is in tangibly better shape than it was at Easter, and she's been steadily winning voters for a half a year.


Last edited by 33anda3rd on September 9 19, 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 9 19, 8:13 am 
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...or, to piggyback on that last idea about the trends, the leaderboard in polling difference, National Polls going by the RCP average, since June 1 (100 days ago) is:

Warren +9.0
Sanders +1.0
Booker +0.2
Harris -0.3
O'Rourke -1.5
Buttigieg -1.5
Biden -5.3

That's far more important that any one poll of a thousand voters. The most unknown of the Big Three is the biggest gainer, the one who entered with the most fame the biggest loser, and the second most famous is stuck in the middle.


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