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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 11 19, 9:35 pm 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
I think Trump has irritated me to the point I'm going to have to vote for whoever the democratic nominee is but Bernie would be my preference.

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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 12 19, 9:13 pm 
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Shout out to Beto in the debate tonight: "Yes, we're going to take your AR-15. We're going to take your AK-47."

Finally.

1994 Crime Bill they banned assault rifles then a bunch of them lost their seats and then it was anathema. Since then, Dem says "We need gun reform" and the NRA and the gun nuts go "See? They wanna take your guns!" and the Dem immediately backpedals to "Wait wait wait...nevermind."


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 12 19, 11:16 pm 
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Castro seemed like a real dill hole.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 12 19, 11:32 pm 
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Just looked at some numbers. Is it fair to say that it's more likely than not the nominee will either be Biden or Warren and of those two Biden in very early stages polls better against Trump?

Has Joey B and how it's so odd he didn't run after his 8 year stint as the Veep and decided to this go around been discussed?


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 5:15 am 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Just looked at some numbers. Is it fair to say that it's more likely than not the nominee will either be Biden or Warren and of those two Biden in very early stages polls better against Trump?

Has Joey B and how it's so odd he didn't run after his 8 year stint as the Veep and decided to this go around been discussed?


Biden is the leader but I would put him as probably the 2nd or 3rd most likely winner of this primary at this point. He's polling lower now than he was before he entered the race. Americans polled for him 4% higher when he was Barry's old co-worker who if he gets in yeah we know who that is and like him. Last night he was abysmal. Abysmal. Other than correcting Castro for misstating Biden's record, Biden was awful. Asked what responsibility we need to take to repair the effects of slavery his answer was:

Quote:
Well, they have to deal with the — look, there’s institutional segregation in this country. From the time I got involved, I started dealing with that. Redlining banks, making sure we are in a position where — look, you talk about education. I propose is we take the very poor schools, triple the amount of money we spend from $15 to $45 billion a year. Give every single teacher a raise to the $60,000 level.

Number two, make sure that we bring in to help the teachers deal with the problems that come from home. The problems that come from home, we have one school psychologist for every 1,500 kids in America today. It’s crazy. The teachers are — I’m married to a teacher, my deceased wife is a teacher. They have every problem coming to them. Make sure that every single child does, in fact, have 3, 4 and 5-year-olds go to school. Not day care, school.

Social workers help parents deal with how to raise their children. It’s not that they don’t want to help, they don’t know what to play the radio, make sure the television — excuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the — make sure that kids hear words, a kid coming from a very poor school — a very poor background will hear 4 million words fewer spoken by the time we get there.

MODERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Vice President.

Biden: No, I’m going to go like the rest of them do, twice over. Because here’s the deal. The deal is that we’ve got this a little backwards. By the way, in Venezuela, we should be allowing people to come here from Venezuela. I know Maduro. I’ve confronted Maduro. You talk about the need to do something in Latin America. I’m the guy that came up with $740 million, to see to it those three countries, in fact, changed their system to people don’t have to chance to leave. You’re acting like we just discovered this yesterday. Thank you very much.


His campaign has been defined by confusion, belligerence at times when challenged, misstatements, gaffes, a bleeding eyeball at a climate town hall. He's running on "Me and Obama did X, Y, Z let's continue that" and Obama isn't coming within a mile of him. I hope he's not the leader soon so that we can talk about the candidates who have some actual substance and are not just like "you guys are talking policy in Israel, well I been there! I know that guy! I looked that man in his eye and I said you summitch you git on outta here you!"


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 6:41 am 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Just looked at some numbers. Is it fair to say that it's more likely than not the nominee will either be Biden or Warren and of those two Biden in very early stages polls better against Trump?

Has Joey B and how it's so odd he didn't run after his 8 year stint as the Veep and decided to this go around been discussed?


Sanders is still in it. He's doing worse nationally than he is in most state polls, but even then he's still second in a bunch of those. Iowa polls have been all over, but he's been second in the last 2. He's been at the top or 2nd in New Hampshire the last few polls. Do well in those 2 and you're in pretty good shape.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 7:11 am 
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I'd seen some headlines where joe made some gaffes. Saw a tweet where his dentures looked like they almost fell out of his mouth last night. So...if it's not Biden, then Warren?

Regarding reparing slavery, I mean, that's kind of an oddly worded question, no? His answer, though a jumbled mess of words that would make even the heartiest of english teachers cringe at the though of diagramming, seems rather coherent. You're going to have to pay teachers more to stay at the poverty stricken schools. Agreed. Get more social workers to help the parents and psychologists to help the kids. Agreed. Immerse the kids in the English/Spanish/whatever language. Read to them, let them listen to music, listen to the radio (or a record player, I guess, lol), etc. All of these are valid points and while there's no clear cut and right answer on how to bridge the gap between the lower and upper classes wrt to children's upbringing, this is a pretty solid foundation. Certainly not a magical wand, but I'm not convinced that exists.

If it answered the question, I don't know. Because, frankly, are the effects of slavery defined somewhere? Like is there a list of things he needed to touch on. Aren't there two pretty obvious issues that need to be addressed (regardless of how slavery contributed to todays modern world)? Isn't the bigger issue in todays world institutionalized or systemic racism? And, possibly even more of a problem than that is the socio-economic divide.

ETA: Not to take up for Uncle Joe. His answer makes it sound like he was drunk. But, hey, I can sympathize with a guy that has great ideas but can't convey them eloquently.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 7:41 am 
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Location: Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 8:03 am 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
I'd seen some headlines where joe made some gaffes. Saw a tweet where his dentures looked like they almost fell out of his mouth last night. So...if it's not Biden, then Warren?

It really depends on how you look at it; there's currently a top-tier of Biden, Warren, Sanders.

Biden
Reasons he'll win - Polling with a decent lead over Warren and Sanders, has the best name recognition amongst the more casual political observers and non-followers. I think being straight, white, male and more moderate will help him with older voters, and potentially in the midwest. He has the clearest path to the nomination being the current leader. He's currently seen as the most likely, by voters, to beat Trump. That may be a self-fulfilling prophecy but it will motivate some decisions in the booth during a primary.

Reasons he won't - The longer he campaigns the more his gaffes are becoming talked about and not hand waved (last night). As people hear more, they seem to be leaving for Bernie or Harris. 92.5% of people have an opinion of Biden with 69.1% viewing him favorably and 23.4% unfavorable. That 23% is second highest among primary candidates so his name recognition caps his ceiling to grow his favorables a bit. Also, the first state is Iowa. Caucuses tend to favor those with a very motivated supporters - Bernie outperformed in every 2016 primary caucus - so it's possible that Warren or Bernie could snag Iowa/NH and you'd start to see his support wain.

Warren
Disclaimer - I've liked warren since her days in the CFPB and was my choice the day she announced.
Reasons she'll win - She's seen her support steadily grow; candidates usually get a polling bump right after an announcement but it doesn't always stick. Her's did. She gained in the polls again after the first debates; her gains seem to stick. She's got a higher ceiling than the other two with 63.8% favorable to 15.3% favorable (79.1%). I'd argue she's the most likely of the top three to flip the unfavorables given she has less name recognition than the other top tier candidates. Her current status in Iowa and NH could be enough to spark a larger move from the supporters of lower tiered candidates like Mayor Pete, O'Rourke or even Kamala Harris to align behind her.

Reason's she won't - She's got a tougher path to building a winning coalition. As voters flee Biden they seem to go to Harris or Bernie but those two are flat at the polls as Warren grows, so she's pulling some support from those two camps. Many of the progressives that would help vault her in to the lead are going to be staunch Bernie supporters she'll have difficulty winning as long as he's in the race. She's still polling behind Biden so she has to grow her support. It's tough to say but she's a woman and I think that's going to hurt her because I think more casual observers would be scared she's Hillary 2.0.

Bernie 'Feel the Bern' Sanders
Reason's he'll win - He's kind of the original progressive, shifting the Overton Window of the DNC to the left; as such he has undying, impassioned support. He seems to be one of the top second choices of Biden voters, and there seemed to be a lot of people in 2016 who were Obama-Bernie-Trump voters. He's raising money, he has shown the ability to motivate and inspire. He's polling well, should do outstanding in the Iowa Caucuses and there's polls showing him leading in NH at the moment. He's the other straight, white, male in the primary so an obvious choice for those who care about such things.

Reasons he won't - I'm worried he's kind of at his ceiling. He's up with Biden with 92% having an opinion on him, so his name recognition caps his ceiling a bit. He's got more unfavorable views of him than anyone else in the field (24.0%) and I think those numbers are going to be pretty inelastic. With 2016 and the last year, most people know who he is and what he stands for. I think the term socialist from within the moderate wing of the DNC is going to hurt him more than Warren. I find his aesthetic a little 'nutty professor' which I think hurts him among more casual voters.

All three have a real shot; if I were an odds man I'd probably put Biden at 2:1, Warren at 3:1 and Bernie at 5:1.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: September 13 19, 9:44 am 
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Beto was awesome last night. His Hell yes, I'm gonna take your AR 15 was spectacular.


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