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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 8:24 am 
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Jocephus wrote:
beto is in


He motivates Hispanic voters. He can win TX v Trump. And Arizona. And keep Nevada. And possibly take Florida. While not being at risk of losing any Clinton '16 states.
He's doing the "I don't take money from PACs" route, and that plays with voters who equate it to integrity (which they should.) Tough to get a "Crooked Beto" meme going when he's not in anyone's pocket. Where will the false equivalency claims come from?
He's held a sit-in v guns and that is an issue that, forget the NRA, about 65% of Americans are with him on.
Supports universal health care but needs to clearly define his version of it, and the majority of Americans are with him on that.
Has spoken strongly about racial injustice and reform of the criminal justice system, something most Americans are with him on.
Has spoken strongly about economic inequality, which about 70% of Americans agree with.
Has called for de-criminalizing weed, which most American agree with.
Has called for federal investments in rural agriculture, which could go a very long way with rust-belt stats--could turn some states like OH and PA, though I'd still guess the plains states from Iowa over are still GOP.

And, unlike HRC, who Americans were with on those issues, he possesses the charisma to sell himself to swing voters on those issues.

He probably, if the primary were today, would have my vote. Love me some Bernie, but Beto checks all the boxes, doesn't carry the "socialist" tag that the GOP would use to drag Sanders in the general, and there's no weird videos of him online calling Asian people "yellows", or drunk and shirtless singing with Russians.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 8:50 am 
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Beto sucks. He's a totally empty vessel ready to be filled by corporate interests. His voting record in congress is more conservative than baseline democrats, not even close to progressives like Sanders and Warren, and oh yeah, he can keep his "no PAC money" promise from now on and it won't change the fact that he's already taken more from oil companies than just about any other democrat.

I doubt he'll ever finish above 15% in any primary.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 12:41 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 1:12 pm 
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33anda3rd wrote:
He motivates Hispanic voters.

He underperformed with Hispanic voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/upshot/beto-2020-texas-battleground-white-voters.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-upshotnyt

Mr. O’Rourke’s strong showing had essentially nothing to do with the initial vision of a Blue Texas powered by mobilizing the state’s growing Hispanic population. The Texas electorate was only two points more Hispanic in 2018 than it was in 2012, but President Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012, compared with Mr. O’Rourke’s 2.6-point loss.

At the same time, Mr. O’Rourke fared worse than Mr. Obama or Hillary Clinton in many of the state’s heavily Hispanic areas, particularly in more conservative South Texas. This could reflect Mr. Cruz’s relative strength among Hispanic voters compared with a typical Republican.

Instead, Mr. O’Rourke’s improvement came almost exclusively from white voters, and particularly college-educated white voters. Whites probably gave him around 33 percent of their votes, up from a mere 22 percent for Mr. Obama in 2012.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 1:14 pm 
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33anda3rd wrote:
Tough to get a "Crooked Beto" meme going when he's not in anyone's pocket.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Beto-O-Rourke-s-ties-to-his-wealthy-family-13302228.php

On the city council, he was accused of conflicts of interest in 2006 for pushing an urban renewal plan involving his wealthy father-in-law, a multi-national real estate investor once described as “the richest man in El Paso.”

As a member of Congress, and an investor with an extensive portfolio, he was criticized for taking part in initial public stock offerings in Twitter and several other businesses, an ethics violation that he quickly remedied when it was brought to his attention.

Along the way his mother, who was his partner in several business ventures, ran a family furniture store that was targeted by the IRS in a $630,000 tax fraud case in 2010.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 1:20 pm 
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thrill wrote:
Beto sucks.

He was a good candidate for Texas U.S. Senator but is a bad candidate for President. John Cornyn still sucks and beating him would arguably have larger practical impact than who wins the Democratic Presidential primary.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 1:21 pm 
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Beto's wife is the daughter of a billionaire, and she is also a charter school administrator


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 2:53 pm 
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33anda3rd wrote:
Jocephus wrote:
beto is in


He can win TX v Trump.


he couldn't even win TX from cruz...and TX hates cruz


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 2:59 pm 
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I'm torn on Beto...

Positives:
Able to raise money
Charisma
Able to steal Texas from GOP
Younger
Celebrity attachment
No dark money.

Negatives:
Little substance
Waited too long to announce candidacy, somewhat public decline since November.
Too conservative for my liking


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: March 14 19, 3:19 pm 
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I'm hoping Beto peels off some Biden voters.

This is all wild speculation, but:

Beto and Kamala are similar to me in that to the degree you can get them on board left policies, I suspect they can be effective in selling them to voters and getting them passed. Obama-like.

Bernie and Warren will start further left, have better policies, but may have more people solidly against those policies. Honestly not sure how capable either is of bringing people around.

I'm starting to see Buttigieg as a blend of those two. Of course he's a longshot, but it's worth mentioning that Bill Clinton was polling around 1% about this time.


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